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Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods

Year 2024, , 65 - 74, 29.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.62520/fujece.1421090

Abstract

Trend analysis of annual average flow data is very important for better water resources management, planning and operation. In this study, annual average flow data from M. Kemal Paşa, Orhaneli and Simav flow observation stations located in Susurluk Basin were tested with Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho and Şen's Innovative trend methods and the trends of the stations were tried to be determined and the performances of these methods were evaluated. In addition, annual average flow data were submitted to regression analysis, yielding equation sets. For each station, the annual and 100-year changes in m3/s were determined. Analyzing the results, only Şen's Innovative Trend Method analysis found a general decreasing trend for all 3 stations. In the analyses of Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho methods, no trend was detected in all 3 stations. In addition, 100-year percentage change values of the data of 3 stations were determined. According to these values, it is concluded that there will be a significant decrease in the flow values of the stations in the future.

References

  • M. Zaghloul, E. Ghaderpour, H. Dastour, B. Farjad, A. Gupta, H Eum and Q. Hassan, “Long term trend analysis of river flow and climate in northern Canada”, Hydr., vol. 9, no. 11, pp. 197, 2022.
  • C. Zang and J. Liu, “Trend analysis for the flows of green and blue water in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China”, Jour. of Hydr., vol. 502, pp. 27-36, 2013.
  • E. Kahya and S. Kalaycı, “Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey”, Jour. of Hydr., vol. 289 no. 1-4, pp. 128-144, 2004.
  • M. Gautam and K. Acharya, “Streamflow trends in Nepal”, Hydr. Sci. Jour., vol. 57 no. 2, pp. 344-357, 2012.
  • H. Mann, “Nonparametric tests against trend”, Econometrica: Jour. of the Econ. Soc., pp. 245-259, 1945.
  • M. Kendall, “Rank correlation methods”, 1975.
  • E. Lehmann and H. D'Abrera, “Nonparametrics: statistical methods based on ranks”, Holden-day, 1975.
  • Z. Şen, “Innovative trend analysis methodology”, Jour.of Hydr. Eng., 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • Z. Şen, “Trend identification simulation and application”, Jour.of Hydr. Eng., vol. 19 no. 3, pp. 635-642, 2014.
  • Z. Şen, E. Şişman and I. Dabanli, “Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and applications”, Jour. of Hydr., vol. 575, pp. 202-210, 2019.
  • V. Gümüş and K. Yenigün, “Aşağı Fırat Havzası akımlarının trend analizi ile değerlendirilmesi”, Yedinci Uluslararası İnşaat Mühendisliğinde Gelişmeler Kongresi, 11, 13, 2006.
  • V. Gumus, Y. Avsaroglu and O. Simsek, “Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods”, Jour. of Ear. Sys. Sci., vol. 13, no.1, pp. 34, 2022.
  • W. Wang, P. Van Gelder and J. Vrijiling, “Trend and Stationarity Analysis for Streamflow Processes of Rivers in Western Europe in the 20th Century”, In Proceedings: IWA International Conference on Water Economics, Statistics, and Finance Rethymno, Greece, 810, 2005.
  • R. Ali and S. Abubaker, “Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator test and innovative trend analysis method in Yangtze River basin, China”, Int. Jour. of Eng. & Tech., vol. 8 no.2, pp. 110-119, 2019.
  • C. Yerdelen, “Susurluk havzası yıllık akımlarının trend analizi ve değişim noktasının araştırılması” Dokuz Eylül Üni. Müh.Fak. Fen ve Müh.Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 44, pp. 77-87, 2013.
  • G. Ceribasi and A. Ceyhunlu, "Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method", Jour. of Water and Clim. Chan., vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 1532-1543, 2021.
  • M. Ashraf, I. Ahmad, N. Khan, F. Zhang, A. Bilal and J. Guo, “Streamflow variations in monthly, seasonal, annual and extreme values using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and innovative trend analysis”, Water Res. Manag., vol. 35, pp. 243-261, 2021.
  • A. Gadedjisso-Tossou, K. Adjegan and A. Kablan, “Rainfall and temperature trend analysis by Mann–Kendall test and significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo”, Sci, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 17, 2021.
  • F. Aditya, E. Gusmayanti and J. Sudrajat, “Rainfall Trend Analysis Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator Test in West Kalimantan” In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 893, no.1, pp. 012006, 2021.
  • C. Spearman, “The proof and measurement of association between two things”, Oamerican J, 1904.
  • M. Rahman, L. Yunsheng and N. Sultana, “Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 129, no. 4, pp. 409-424, 2017.
  • R. Ergüven, “Küresel iklim değişikliğinin yukarı fırat havzası hidrometeorolojik verileri üzerine etkisi”, Master's Thesis, Fırat Unıversıty Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Elazığ, 2022.
  • M. Shadmani, S. Marofi and M. Roknian, “Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests in arid regions of Iran”, Water Res.Manag., vol. 26, pp. 211-224, 2012.
  • I. Ahmad, D. Tang, T. Wang, M. Wang and B. Wagan, “Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearman’s rho tests in swat river basin, Pakistan”, Adv. in Meteor., 2015.
  • T. Caloiero, “Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA)”, Theor. and Appl. Clim., vol. 139 no.1-2, pp. 493-504, 2020.
  • K. Saplıoğlu and Y. Güçlü, "Combination of wilcoxon test and scatter diagram for trend analysis of hydrological data", Jour. of Hydr., vol. 612, pp. 128132, 2022.
  • K. Saplıoğlu and E. Çoban, “Karadeniz bölgesi yağış serilerinin trend analizi”, VII. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi Bildirileri, Isparta, Turkey, 500, 512, 2013.
  • R. Ali, A. Kuriqi, S. Abubaker and O. Kisi, "Long-term trends and seasonality detection of the observed flow in Yangtze River using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend method", Water, vol. 11, no. 9, pp. 1855, 2019.
  • E. Çoban, “Investigation of the effects of global warming in the büyük menderes river basin with the innovative sen test”, Available at SSRN, 4659255, 2023.
  • R. Acar and K. Saplıoğlu, “Etkili girdi parametrelerinin çoklu regresyon ile belirlendiği su sertliğinin anfis yöntemi ile tahmin edilmesi”, Afyon Kocatepe Üni. Fen ve Müh. Bil. Derg., vol. 22, pp. 1413-1424, 2022.
  • A. Aksakal and A. Gündoğay, "Determınatıon of Column Curvature Ductılıty by Multıple Regressıon Analysıs", In Ist-International Congress on Modern Sciences Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 395, 403, 2022.
  • S. Barlas, T. K. Öztürk, F. Şenel and K. Saplıoğlu, "Using Multiple Regression Models To Identify Missing Flow Data", Conference: Tashkent 1st International Congress on Modern Sciences, 1(1), 372-381, 2022.

Susurluk Havzası Akımlarının Trend Analiz Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2024, , 65 - 74, 29.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.62520/fujece.1421090

Abstract

Yıllık ortalama akım verilerinin trend analizi, daha iyi su kaynakları yönetimi, planlanması ve işletilmesi için çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Susurluk Havzası üzerinde bulunan M. Kemal Paşa, Orhaneli ve Simav akım gözlem istasyonlarından alınan yıllık ortalama akım verileri Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho ve Şen'in Yenilikçi trend yöntemleri ile test edilmiş ve istasyonlara ait eğilimler belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır ve bu yöntemlerin performansları değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca yıllık ortalama akım verileri regresyon analizine tabi tutulmuş ve denklem takımları elde edilmiştir. Her istasyon için azalış-artış miktarları yıllık ve 100 yıllık değişimleri m3/s cinsinden tespit edilmiştir. Sonuçlar irdelendiğinde sadece Şen'in Yenilikçi trend yöntemi analizlerinde 3 istasyon için de genel anlamda azalan bir trend tespit edilmiştir. Mann-Kendall ve Spearman Rho yöntemleri analizlerinde ise 3 istasyonda da herhangi bir trend tespit edilememiştir. Ayrıca 3 istasyona ait verilerin 100 yıllık değişim yüzdesi değerleri belirlenmiştir. Bu değerlere göre istasyonların akım değerlerinde gelecekte ciddi bir düşüş olacağı sonucuna varılmıştır.

References

  • M. Zaghloul, E. Ghaderpour, H. Dastour, B. Farjad, A. Gupta, H Eum and Q. Hassan, “Long term trend analysis of river flow and climate in northern Canada”, Hydr., vol. 9, no. 11, pp. 197, 2022.
  • C. Zang and J. Liu, “Trend analysis for the flows of green and blue water in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China”, Jour. of Hydr., vol. 502, pp. 27-36, 2013.
  • E. Kahya and S. Kalaycı, “Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey”, Jour. of Hydr., vol. 289 no. 1-4, pp. 128-144, 2004.
  • M. Gautam and K. Acharya, “Streamflow trends in Nepal”, Hydr. Sci. Jour., vol. 57 no. 2, pp. 344-357, 2012.
  • H. Mann, “Nonparametric tests against trend”, Econometrica: Jour. of the Econ. Soc., pp. 245-259, 1945.
  • M. Kendall, “Rank correlation methods”, 1975.
  • E. Lehmann and H. D'Abrera, “Nonparametrics: statistical methods based on ranks”, Holden-day, 1975.
  • Z. Şen, “Innovative trend analysis methodology”, Jour.of Hydr. Eng., 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • Z. Şen, “Trend identification simulation and application”, Jour.of Hydr. Eng., vol. 19 no. 3, pp. 635-642, 2014.
  • Z. Şen, E. Şişman and I. Dabanli, “Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and applications”, Jour. of Hydr., vol. 575, pp. 202-210, 2019.
  • V. Gümüş and K. Yenigün, “Aşağı Fırat Havzası akımlarının trend analizi ile değerlendirilmesi”, Yedinci Uluslararası İnşaat Mühendisliğinde Gelişmeler Kongresi, 11, 13, 2006.
  • V. Gumus, Y. Avsaroglu and O. Simsek, “Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods”, Jour. of Ear. Sys. Sci., vol. 13, no.1, pp. 34, 2022.
  • W. Wang, P. Van Gelder and J. Vrijiling, “Trend and Stationarity Analysis for Streamflow Processes of Rivers in Western Europe in the 20th Century”, In Proceedings: IWA International Conference on Water Economics, Statistics, and Finance Rethymno, Greece, 810, 2005.
  • R. Ali and S. Abubaker, “Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator test and innovative trend analysis method in Yangtze River basin, China”, Int. Jour. of Eng. & Tech., vol. 8 no.2, pp. 110-119, 2019.
  • C. Yerdelen, “Susurluk havzası yıllık akımlarının trend analizi ve değişim noktasının araştırılması” Dokuz Eylül Üni. Müh.Fak. Fen ve Müh.Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 44, pp. 77-87, 2013.
  • G. Ceribasi and A. Ceyhunlu, "Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method", Jour. of Water and Clim. Chan., vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 1532-1543, 2021.
  • M. Ashraf, I. Ahmad, N. Khan, F. Zhang, A. Bilal and J. Guo, “Streamflow variations in monthly, seasonal, annual and extreme values using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and innovative trend analysis”, Water Res. Manag., vol. 35, pp. 243-261, 2021.
  • A. Gadedjisso-Tossou, K. Adjegan and A. Kablan, “Rainfall and temperature trend analysis by Mann–Kendall test and significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo”, Sci, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 17, 2021.
  • F. Aditya, E. Gusmayanti and J. Sudrajat, “Rainfall Trend Analysis Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator Test in West Kalimantan” In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 893, no.1, pp. 012006, 2021.
  • C. Spearman, “The proof and measurement of association between two things”, Oamerican J, 1904.
  • M. Rahman, L. Yunsheng and N. Sultana, “Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, vol. 129, no. 4, pp. 409-424, 2017.
  • R. Ergüven, “Küresel iklim değişikliğinin yukarı fırat havzası hidrometeorolojik verileri üzerine etkisi”, Master's Thesis, Fırat Unıversıty Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Elazığ, 2022.
  • M. Shadmani, S. Marofi and M. Roknian, “Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests in arid regions of Iran”, Water Res.Manag., vol. 26, pp. 211-224, 2012.
  • I. Ahmad, D. Tang, T. Wang, M. Wang and B. Wagan, “Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearman’s rho tests in swat river basin, Pakistan”, Adv. in Meteor., 2015.
  • T. Caloiero, “Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA)”, Theor. and Appl. Clim., vol. 139 no.1-2, pp. 493-504, 2020.
  • K. Saplıoğlu and Y. Güçlü, "Combination of wilcoxon test and scatter diagram for trend analysis of hydrological data", Jour. of Hydr., vol. 612, pp. 128132, 2022.
  • K. Saplıoğlu and E. Çoban, “Karadeniz bölgesi yağış serilerinin trend analizi”, VII. Ulusal Hidroloji Kongresi Bildirileri, Isparta, Turkey, 500, 512, 2013.
  • R. Ali, A. Kuriqi, S. Abubaker and O. Kisi, "Long-term trends and seasonality detection of the observed flow in Yangtze River using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend method", Water, vol. 11, no. 9, pp. 1855, 2019.
  • E. Çoban, “Investigation of the effects of global warming in the büyük menderes river basin with the innovative sen test”, Available at SSRN, 4659255, 2023.
  • R. Acar and K. Saplıoğlu, “Etkili girdi parametrelerinin çoklu regresyon ile belirlendiği su sertliğinin anfis yöntemi ile tahmin edilmesi”, Afyon Kocatepe Üni. Fen ve Müh. Bil. Derg., vol. 22, pp. 1413-1424, 2022.
  • A. Aksakal and A. Gündoğay, "Determınatıon of Column Curvature Ductılıty by Multıple Regressıon Analysıs", In Ist-International Congress on Modern Sciences Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 395, 403, 2022.
  • S. Barlas, T. K. Öztürk, F. Şenel and K. Saplıoğlu, "Using Multiple Regression Models To Identify Missing Flow Data", Conference: Tashkent 1st International Congress on Modern Sciences, 1(1), 372-381, 2022.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Civil Engineering (Other)
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ramazan Acar 0000-0001-5864-0076

Publication Date February 29, 2024
Submission Date January 17, 2024
Acceptance Date February 11, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024

Cite

APA Acar, R. (2024). Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering, 3(1), 65-74. https://doi.org/10.62520/fujece.1421090
AMA Acar R. Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods. FUJECE. February 2024;3(1):65-74. doi:10.62520/fujece.1421090
Chicago Acar, Ramazan. “Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods”. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering 3, no. 1 (February 2024): 65-74. https://doi.org/10.62520/fujece.1421090.
EndNote Acar R (February 1, 2024) Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering 3 1 65–74.
IEEE R. Acar, “Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods”, FUJECE, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 65–74, 2024, doi: 10.62520/fujece.1421090.
ISNAD Acar, Ramazan. “Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods”. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering 3/1 (February 2024), 65-74. https://doi.org/10.62520/fujece.1421090.
JAMA Acar R. Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods. FUJECE. 2024;3:65–74.
MLA Acar, Ramazan. “Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods”. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering, vol. 3, no. 1, 2024, pp. 65-74, doi:10.62520/fujece.1421090.
Vancouver Acar R. Evaluation of Susurluk Basin Flows Using Trend Analysis Methods. FUJECE. 2024;3(1):65-74.