Orta Asya Göç Akımı'na Yerçekimi Kanunu Yaklaşımı

Year 2019, Issue: 2, 190 - 214, 15.12.2019

Canan Çetin

Abstract

Afghanistan, Tacikistan, Azerbaycan, Özbekistan ve Pakistan)Türkiye ve Rusya’yı
koridor ülke olarak kullanılarak Avrupa’ya giden uluslararası göç stoğunu
istatistiksel olarak Newton’un Yerçekimi Kanunu modelini uluslararası göçe
uygulamayı hedeflemektedir. Çalışma,uluslararası göçü 1990 ve 2013 yılları
arasındaki onar yıllık periodlar şeklinde incelemektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı
tarihi olayları açıklamak ya da Orta Asya devletleriyle Türkiye ve Rusyanın ikili
ilişkilerini incelemek değildir. Çalışmanın amacı, Yer Çekimi Kanunun önerdiği
değişkenlere ek olarak eklenmiş kukla değişkenlerle Orta Asya’dan Avrupa’ya
giden göçe yön veren parametreleri açıklamaktır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, varılan
ülkenin nüfusu ve toprak genişliği, ülkeler arasındaki uzaklık, Gayrisafi Milli
hasılalar arasındaki farklılık, ve tarihsel ve kültürel olarak Sovyetler Birliğine
olan bağlılığın uluslararası göç stoğuna Türkiye ve Rusya’nın seçiliminde yön
verdiği ve etkilediğini ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Çalışma yerçekimi kanunu uluslarası
göç üzerinden bu bölgeye ilk kez uygulaması bakımından özgündür.

Keywords

Yerçekimi Kanunu, Orta Asya, Türkiye, Rusya, Koridor Ülke, Göç

Gravity Approach Applied to Central Asian Migration Flow

Abstract

This essay attempts to discuss empirical results on determinants of international
migration stock from the perspective of destination countries, Turkey and Russia,
and applies the gravity model of migration to statistically test the migration stock
from Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan Tajikistan,
Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan) for ten years periods between 1990 and
2013. This paper does not aim to describe historical events or bilateral relations
between the Central Asian States with Turkey and Russia. The findings of the study
unveil that area and population of the destination country, the distance between
countries, difference in GDP, historical and cultural ties with the Soviet Union
influence migration stock in Turkey and Russia.

Keywords

Gravity Approach, Central Asia, Turkey, Russia, Corridor Country, Migration

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