TÜRKİYE’S FOOTHOLD IN THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN TO THE ARABIAN SEA: SCRATCHING AN AD-HOC REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX

Abstract

Türkiye pursues an effective and assertive foreign policy as a decisive power in the transformations in the regional security architecture in its immediate basin. It is a generally accepted idea today that foreign policy moves are parts of an interconnected and systemic strategy rather than individual initiatives. Recently, the basin extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea have brought substantial threats, risks and advantages for Turkish foreign policy. Türkiye has resorted to using bilateral cooperation instruments against these challenges. At a time of evolving global and regional dynamics, a set of foreign policy moves and bilateral cooperations established with certain states in the region has served the common purpose of increasing Türkiye’s political presence and leverage in this basin, leading to the formation of an ad-hoc regional security complex. The study deals with the regional security complex theory with a qualitative approach, analyzes Türkiye's recent engagement with the subject basin in the light of this theory, and puts forward general implications regarding the regional balance of power. The study is assessed to make a unique contribution to the literature as it considers Türkiye's foreign policy moves related to the subject basin as connected and systematic initiatives.

Keywords

• Regional security complex
• Türkiye
• Eastern Mediterranean
• Red Sea
• Gulf of Aden.

TÜRKİYE’NİN DOĞU AKDENİZ’DEN ARAP DENİZİ’NE UZANAN HAVZADA VARLIĞI: ÖZGÜN BİR BÖLGESEL GÜVENLİK KOMPLEKSİNİN ŞEKİLLENDİRİLMESİ

Abstract

Türkiye, yakın havzasında bölgesel güvenlik mimarisindeki dönüşümlerde belirleyici bir güç olarak iddialı ve etkili bir dış politika yürütmektedir. Gerçekleştirilen dış politika hamlelerinin münferit girişimlerden ziyade birbiriyle bağlantılı ve sistemik bir stratejinin parçaları olduğu günümüzde genel kabul görmüş bir düşüncedir. Son dönemde Doğu Akdeniz’den Arap Denizi’ne uzanan havza; Türk dış politikası için ciddi tehditler, riskler ve avantajlar getirmiştir. Türkiye, bu sınamalara karşı iş birliği enstrümanlarını kullanmak yoluna gitmiştir. Küresel ve bölgesel dinamiklerin dönüştüğü bir dönemde birtakım dış politika hamleleri ve bölge ülkeleriyle tesis edilen ikili iş birlikleri, Türkiye’nin bu havzada siyasi varlık ve nüfuzunu artırmaya yönelik ortak amaca hizmet ederek özgün bir bölgesel güvenlik kompleksinin meydana gelmesine zemin hazırlamıştır. Çalışma; nitel bir yaklaşımla bölgesel güvenlik kompleksi teorisini ele almakta, Türkiye’nin yakın dönemde bu havzadaki angajmanlarını söz konusu teori ışığında analiz etmekte, bölgesel güç dengesine yönelik genel sonuç ve çıkarımlar ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye’nin tanımlanan bu havzaya yönelik dış politika hamlelerini bağlantılı ve sistematik inisiyatifler olarak ele alması itibarıyla çalışmanın literatüre özgün bir katkı sağladığı değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

• Bölgesel güvenlik kompleksi
• Türkiye
• Doğu Akdeniz
• Kızıldeniz
• Aden Körfezi.

References

1. Abdulle, A. Y., & Gurpinar, B. (2019). Turkey’s Engagement in Somalia: A Security Perspective. Somalia Studies, 4, 53-71.
2. Acer, Y. (2019). Doğu Akdeniz’de Deniz Yetki Alanları ve Türkiye-Libya Muabakatı. SETA Analiz, 301. https://setav.org/assets/uploads/2019/12/A301.pdf
3. Aksoy, H. A. (2024). Egypt and Türkiye: The crowning of a new friendship?, 16 February [ISPI]. https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/egypt-and-turkiye-the-crowning-of-a-new-friendship-164113
4. Al Jazeera. (2024, September 28). Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian figures whose killings were blamed on Israel. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/28/list-of-hezbollah-hamas-iran-leaders-killed-by-israel-in-recent-months
5. Al-Radad, O. (2024, August 16). A New Era for Turkish-Syrian Ties? | The Washington Institute. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-era-turkish-syrian-ties
6. Baldwin, D. A. (1997). The Concept of Security. Review of International Studies, 23, 5-26.
7. Beeson, M. (2005). Rethinking Regionalism: Europe and East Asia in Comparative Historical Perspective. Journal of European Public Polic, 12(6), 969-985. https://doi.org/10.1080=13501760500270620
8. Blanchard, C. M. (2022). Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy. Congressional Research Service. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33142.pdf

9. Buzan, B. (1983). People, States and Fear: The National Security Problem in International Relations. Wheatsheaf Books LTD.
10. Buzan, B. (2016). People, States & Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era. ECPR Press.
11. Buzan, B., & Hansen, L. (2009). The Evolution of International Security Studies. Cambridge University Press.
12. Buzan, B., & Wæver, O. (2003). Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge University Press.
13. Buzan, B., Wæver, O., & de Wilde, J. (1998). Secuirty: A New Framework for Analysis. Lynne Rienner Publishers.
14. Çalkaya, M. (2024). Kızıldeniz’deki Kriz, Türkiye’ye Orta Koridor’un Geliştirilmesinde Liderlik Fırsatı Getiriyor. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/kizildenizdeki-kriz-turkiyeye-orta-koridorun-gelistirilmesinde-liderlik-firsati-getiriyor/3107045
15. Çelik, M. (2024). Diplomatic Reset: What does President Erdogan’s Cairo Visit Mean for Türkiye-Egypt ties?, 14 February. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/opinion-diplomatic-reset-what-does-president-erdogans-cairo-visit-mean-for-turkiye-egypt-ties/3137117
16. Çeliker, G. (2024, August 13). Ethiopian, Somali officials to continue indirect talks in Türkiye. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/ethiopian-somali-officials-to-continue-indirect-talks-in-turkiye/3302199
17. Denamiel, T., Schleich, M., Reinsch, W. A., & Todman, W. (2024). The Global Economic Consequences of the Attacks on Red Sea Shipping Lanes. https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-economic-consequences-attacks-red-sea-shipping-lanes
18. Devecioğlu, K. (2024). Türkiye and Somalia: A New Cooperation Approach From Regional Security to Economic Development (317; Analysis). ORSAM. https://www.orsam.org.tr//d_hbanaliz/turkiye-and-somalia-a-new-cooperation-approach-from-regional-security-to-economic-development.pdf
19. Directorate of Communications. (2024, September 8). Türkiye’s Erdoğan calls for Islamic alliance against Israel. http://wt.iletisim.gov.tr/english/dis_basinda_turkiye/detay/turkeys-erdogan-calls-for-islamic-alliance-against-israel/
20. El-Gamaty, G. (2020). Turkey’s Role in the Reconstruction of Libya. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 73-85. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2020224.05
21. Fetouri, M. (2021). Libya’s parliament reaches out to Ankara leaving Gen. Hifter in the cold—Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East, 30 December. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/12/libyas-parliament-reaches-out-ankara-leaving-gen-hifter-cold
22. Hettne, B. (2005). Beyond the ‘New’ Rregionalism. New Political Economy, 10(4), 543-571. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563460500344484
23. Hürriyet Daily News. (2024, October 1). Israel’s next target will be Türkiye, Erdoğan says. https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/israels-next-target-will-be-turkiye-erdogan-says-201105
24. International Crisis Group. (2023, April 26). Rethinking Gas Diplomacy in the Eastern Mediterranean. https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena-turkiye/240-rethinking-gas-diplomacy-eastern
25. Kekilli, E. (2020). Berlin Konferansı ve Libya Krizinin Geleceği. SETA Analiz, 310. https://setav.org/assets/uploads/2020/02/A310.pdf
26. Kerr, M. H. (2024, February 28). Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/02/understanding-the-energy-drivers-of-turkeys-foreign-policy?lang=en
27. Köse, T., & Öztürk, B. (2020). A Sea of Change in the MENA Region: External Intervention in Libya. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 113-138. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2020224.08
28. Kurt, V. (2020). 27 Kasım Anlaşmasından Berlin Konferansı’na Libya’da Yeni Denklem. SETA Analiz, 306. https://setav.org/assets/uploads/2020/01/A306.pdf
29. Lake, D. A., & Morgan, P. M. (2010). Regional Orders: Building Security in a New World. Penn State Press.
30. Lippman, W. (1943). U.S.Foreign Policy:Shield of the Republic. Atlantic Monthly Press.
31. Mezran, K., & Cristiani, D. (2021, April 29). Turkey and the new Libyan government: Continuity, change, and new opportunities. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-and-the-new-libyan-government-continuity-change-and-new-opportunities/
32. Özkan, M. (2010). Turkey’s Rising Role in Africa (SSRN Scholarly Paper 1855989). https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1855989
33. Özkan, M. (2014). Turkey’s Involvement in Syria: Assessment of a State-Building Process. SETA Publications, 401. https://file.setav.org/Files/Pdf/20141118174857_turkey%E2%80%99s-involvement-in-somalia-assesment-of-a-state-building-in-progress-pdf.pdf
34. Pirinççi, F. (2021). Turkey’s Eastern Mediterranean Policy | A Geopolitical Assessment. SETA. https://www.setav.org/en/policy-report/report-turkeys-eastern-mediterranean-policy-a-geopolitical-assessment
35. Sıradağ, A. (2022). Turkey’s Growing Role as a Security Actor in Somalia: Dynamics and Motivations. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 17(2), 389-404. https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.1115931
36. Şefkatli, F. E. (2024, February 12). Son Dönem Türkiye-Libya İlişkileri Işığında Bakan Fidan’ın Trablus Ziyareti. ORSAM-Ortadoğu Araştırmaları Merkezi. https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/son-donem-turkiye-libya-iliskileri-isiginda-bakan-fidanin-trablus-ziyareti/
37. Telci, İ. N. (2020). Turkey’s Libya Policy: Achievements and Challenges. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 41-54.
38. Telci, İ. N. (2024, February 28). Navigating the Aftermath: Turkey-Egypt Rapprochement and its Echoes in Libya. Politics Today. https://politicstoday.org/turkey-egypt-rapprochement-and-its-echoes-in-libya/
39. The Atlantic Council. (2024, October 4). One year after Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attacks, here’s how the region changed. Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/one-year-after-hamass-october-7-terrorist-attacks-heres-how-the-region-changed/
40. Van Dalen, D., Ndhlovu, M., & Gopaldas, R. (2014). Impact of Red Sea Crisis on Africa –Red Flag or Red Herring? ISS Africa. https://issafrica.org/
41. Van den Berg, W., & Meester, J. (2019). Turkey in the Horn of Africa-Between the Ankara Consensus and the Gulf Crisis (CRU Policy Brief). Clingendael-Netherlands Institute for International Relations. https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/PB_Turkey_in_the_Horn_of_Africa_May_2019.pdf
42. Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
43. Wolfers, A. (1952). National Security as an Ambiguous Symbol. Political Science Quarterly, 67(4), 481-502.
44. Wolfers, A. (1962). Discord and Collaboration-Essays on International Politics. The Johns Hopkins Press.
45. Yeşiltaş, M. (2024a). From rivalry to alliance: The new phase in Türkiye-Egypt relations. SETA. https://www.setav.org/en/opinion/from-rivalry-to-alliance-the-new-phase-in-turkiye-egypt-relations
46. Yeşiltaş, M. (2024b, February 15). Türkiye-Egypt Normalization: Historic Milestone in Bilateral Ties. Daily Sabah. https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/turkiye-egypt-normalization-historic-milestone-in-bilateral-ties
47. Zoubir, Y. H. (2020). The Protracted Civil War in Libya: The Role of Outside Powers. Insight Turkey, 22(4), 11-27. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2020224.01