RUSYA FEDERASYONU’NUN AMERİKA BİRLEŞİK DEVLETLERİ 2016 BAŞKANLIK SEÇİMLERİNE YÖNELİK MANİPÜLASYONUNUN İSTİHBARAT TEKNİKLERİ KAPSAMINDA ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Rusya Federasyonu (RF)’nun Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD)’nde 2016 Kasım ayında yapılan başkanlık seçim sürecine yönelik manipülasyonları, RF’nin siber espiyonaj, ABD’nin ise kontr/espiyonaj kapasiteleri kapsamında incelenmektedir. RF, söz konusu seçim sürecine askerî istihbarat servisi olan GRU (Glavnoye Razvedyvatel’noye Upravleniye / Ana Askerî İstihbarat Servisi)’nun son yıllarda giderek sofistike hale gelen siber espiyonaj imkân ve kabiliyetleri dâhilinde manipüle etmeyi bir ölçüde de olsa başarmıştır. Bu müdahale sürecini ABD kontr/espiyonaj kapasitesi ve bu kapasiteyi oluşturan temel istihbarat servisi olan FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation / Federal Araştırma Bürosu) zamanında deşifre edememiş ve bu çerçevede hasım bir devletin ülkesine yönelik istihbari faaliyetine karşı koymada başarısız olmuştur. GRU’nun ABD Başkanlık seçimlerine yönelik manipülasyonları Donald Trump’ın ABD Başkanı olması akabinde ise anılanı siyasi açıdan baskı altına almak amacıyla Trump’a muhalif çevrelerce sürekli olarak gündemde tutulmaya başlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda da GRU’nun söz konusu istihbari faaliyetleri ABD’nin ilgili resmî istihbarat yapılanmaları tarafından detaylarıyla ortaya konulmuştur. Bu detayların analizi ise ABD’nin FBI önderliğinde koordine edilen kontr/espiyonaj sistematiğindeki zafiyetlerin anlaşılmasının yanı sıra RF’nin GRU tarafından domine edilen siber espiyonaj kabiliyetlerini ortaya koymak bakımından önemli hale gelmiştir.

Keywords

• RF,ABD,Başkanlık Seçimleri,GRU,FBI

ANALYSIS OF MANIPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WITHIN THE SCOPE OF INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES

Abstract

In this study, the manipulations of the Russian Federation (RF) in the presidential election process held in the United States of America (the US) in 2016 November are examined within the scope of RF's cyber espionage and US' counter-espionage capacities. RF has managed to manipulate the election process with the cyber espionage capabilities of the military intelligence service GRU (Glavnoye Razvedyvatel'noye Upravleniye/Main Intelligence Directorate), which has become increasingly sophisticated in recent years. FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation), which is the USA's counter/espionage capacity and the main intelligence service establishing this capacity, could not uncover this intervention process and within this framework failed to resist against the intelligence activities of a hostile country aimed at its own country. The manipulation of GRU in the US presidential elections has been constantly brought into question by the opponents of Donald Trump in order to create political oppression against him following his election as the President of the US. In this context, the intelligence activities of GRU have been revealed in detail by the relevant official intelligence services of the US. The analysis of these details has become important in terms of understanding the weaknesses in the counter-espionage system of the US coordinated under the leadership of the FBI, as well as the RF's cyber espionage capabilities dominated by the GRU.

Keywords

• RF,The US,Presidential Elections,GRU,FBI

References

1. Başbaşoğlu, A.rif (2011). “Füze Savunma Sistemi ve Türkiye”, Orta Doğu Analiz, 3 (34), pp. 74-79.
2. Bıçakcı, Salih (Winter 2014). “NATO’nun Gelişen Tehdit Algısı: 21. Yüzyılda Siber Güvenlik”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, 10 (40), pp. 101-130.
3. Bıçakcı, Salih. (2013). “21. Yüzyılda Siber Güvenlik”, Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul.
4. CNN International (June 2, 2017). “Putin: 'Patriotic' Russian hackers may have targeted US election”, https://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/01/politics/russia-putin-hackers-election/index.html, (accessed; October 10, 2018).
5. Congressional Research Service/The Library of Congress (2005). “Counterintelligence Reform at the Department of Energy: Policy Issues and Organizational Alternatives”, Washington, DC, https://fas.org/sgp/ crs/intel/RL31883.pdf, (accessed; October 10, 2018).
6. Darıcılı, A. Burak (2017a). “Demokrat Parti Hack Skandalı Bağlamında Amerika Birleşik Devletleri ve Rusya Federasyonu’nun Siber Güvenlik Stratejilerinin Analizi”, Yıldırım Beyazıt Üniversitesi Uluslararası Çalışmalar Dergisi (ULİSA), 1 (1), pp. 1-24.
7. Darıcılı, A. Burak (2017b). “Siber Uzay ve Siber Güvenlik; ABD ve Rusya Federasyonu’nun Siber Güvenlik Stratejilerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, Dora Yayıncılık, Bursa.
8. Darıcılı, A. Burak (Autumn 2017). “Rusya Federasyonu’nun Siber Güvenlik Kapasitesini Oluşturan Enstrümanların Analizi”, Journal of Social Sciences of the Turkic World (BİLİG), 83, pp.121-146.

9. Department of Homeland Security (2016a). “Joint DHS, ODNI, FBI Statement on Russian Malicious Cyber Activity”, Washington, DC, https://www.dhs.gov/news/2016/12/29/joint-dhs-odni-fbi-statement-russian-malicious-cyber-activity, (accessed; October 5, 2018).
10. Department of Homeland Security (2016b). “Executive Summary of Grizzly Steppe Findings from Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Todd Breasseale”, Washington, DC, https://www.dhs.gov/news/2016/12/30/ executive-summary-grizzly-steppe-findings-homeland-security-assistant-secretary, (accessed; October 5, 2018).
11. FBI (2018). “Counterintelligence”, https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/ counterintelligence, (accessed; October 9, 2018).
12. Galeotti, Mark (2016). “Putin’s Hydra: Inside Russia’s Intelligence Services”, European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), pp. 1-19, https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/putins_hydra_inside_russias_intelligence_services, (accessed; September 26, 2018).
13. Keskin, Mustafa (2016). “ABD’nin Müdahaleci Dış Politikası; Latin Amerika Örneği”, Barış Araştırmaları ve Çatışma Çözümleri Dergisi, 4 (1), pp.70-88.
14. Khanna, Parag (2008). “Yeni Dünya Düzeni”, Trans; Akbaş, Elif, Nihan; Pegasus Yayınları, İstanbul.
15. Mowthorpe, Matthew (2005). “The Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA): The United States, Russian an Chinese Views”, Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies, 10 (2), pp. 137-153.
16. NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence (2016). “Social Media as A Tool of Hybrid Warfare”, Tallinn, http://www.stratcomcoe.org/ download/file/fid/5314, (accessed; October 14, 2018).
17. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2017). “Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution”, Washington, DC, https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf, (accessed; October 7, 2018).
18. Pero Del, Mario (2001) “The United States Activities on Pyshological Warfare 1948-1955”, 87(44), pp.1-31
19. Reagan L, Mark (2005). “Introduction to the USA Counterintelligence”, USA, https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=460369, (accessed; September 28, 2018).
20. Skidmore E. Thomas and Smith H. Peter (2005). “Modern Latin America”, Oxford University Press, 6. Edition, New York.
21. Sputniknews Portal (December 29, 2016). “Beyaz Saray ABD, 35 Rus diplomatı 72 saat içerisinde sınır dışı edecek”, https://tr.sputniknews.com/ abd/201612291026553306-abd-rusya-yaptirim-diplomat-sinir-disi/, (accessed; September 23, 2018).
22. Sputniknews Portal (December 30, 2016). “Putin’den ABD'ye yanıt: Biz hiç kimseyi sınır dışı etmeyeceğiz.”, https://tr.sputniknews.com/rusya/ 201612301026565257-putin-abdye-yanit-biz-hic-kimseyi-sinir-disi-etmeyecegiz/, (accessed; September 23, 2018).
23. Staar, F. Richard and Tacosa, A. Carliss (2014). “Russia’s Security Services”, Mediterranean Quarterly, 15 (1), pp.39-57.
24. The Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (2018). “Russia's SVR/FSB/GRU Intelligence Services”, https://cicentre.site-ym.com/page/191, (accessed; October 20, 2018).
25. The Office of The Director National Intelligence (1981). “United States Intelligence Activities (Federal Register Vol. 40, No. 235 / December 8, 1981, amended by EO 13284 / 2003, EO 13355 / 2004, and EO 13470 / 2008)”, https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ic-legal-reference-book/executive-order-12333, (accessed; October 17, 2018).
26. The Department of Justice (2018). “Case 1:18-cr-00032-DLF Document 1 Filed 02/16/18 Page 1 of 37 (The Report of Muller Investigation)”, Washington, DC https://www.justice.gov/file/1035477/download, (accessed; October 17, 2018).
27. Turk Internet News Website (October 11, 2016). “Beyaz Saray, Rusya'nın Hackleme Operasyonuna Cevap Verileceğini Açıkladı”, http://www.turk-internet.com/portal/yazigoster.php?yaziid=54247, (accessed; October 14, 2018).
28. U.S. Department of Treasury (2018). “About Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Washington,DC,https://www.treasury.gov/about/organizational-structure/offices/Pages/Office-of-Terrorism-and-Financial-Intelligence.aspx, (accessed; October 10, 2018).
29. Williams, M.Eric (2012). “Understanding U.S.-Latin American Relations: Theory and History”, Routledge.