Modeling and Analyzing the Average Fleet Speed of Major Commercial Ship Types

Abstract

In this study, the average speeds of container, dry bulk and crude oil fleets, which are the main market types in maritime transportation, are estimated and analyzed by using external factors such as freight rate, bunker price, fleet size and interest rate. Freight and interest rates affect the average speeds positively, while bunker price and fleet size negatively affect in accordance with the theoretical justifications. The freight rate mostly affects the average speed of the container fleet, while bunker price, fleet size and interest rate mostly affect the average speed of the crude oil fleet; the average speed of the dry bulk fleet is least affected by the fuel price and fleet size; and the average speed of the container fleet is least affected by the interest rate. In general, when the coefficient sizes between the factors are considered, the most effective factor in average speeds of the three market is their fleet size. Thus, new dimensions have been added to the empirical literature stuck in the framework of freight rate and bunker price.

Keywords

• Vessel speed
• bunker price
• freight rate
• interest rate

Başlıca Ticari Gemi Tiplerinin Ortalama Filo Hızlarının Modellenmesi ve Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, deniz taşımacılığında ana piyasa türleri olan konteyner, kuru yük ve ham petrol filolarının ortalama hızlarını navlun oranı, yakıt fiyatı, filo büyüklüğü ve faiz oranı gibi dış faktörleri kullanarak tahmin ve analiz edilmiştir. Teorik çerçeveye uygun olarak, navlun ve faiz oranları ortalama hızları olumlu yönde etkilerken, yakıt fiyatı ve filo büyüklüğü olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Navlun oranı en çok konteyner filosunun ortalama hızını etkilerken, yakıt fiyatı, filo büyüklüğü ve faiz oranı en çok ham petrol filosunun ortalama hızını etkilemektedir; kuru yük filosunun ortalama hızı yakıt fiyatından ve filo büyüklüğünden en az etkilenmektedir; ve konteyner filosunun ortalama hızı faiz oranından en az etkilenmektedir. Genel olarak, faktörler arasındaki katsayı büyüklükleri göz önüne alındığında, üç pazarın ortalama hızlarında en etkili faktör filo büyüklükleridir. Böylece navlun ve yakıt fiyatı çerçevesinde sıkışmış olan ampirik literatüre yeni boyutlar eklenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gemi hızı
• yakıt fiyatı
• navlun oranı
• faiz oranı.

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