Küçük Melen İğneler Havzası’ndaki taşkınların hidrolojik modelleme yöntemiyle (HEC-HMS) belirlenmesi

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 1 - 14

Tolga Ergül , Olgu Aydın

https://doi.org/10.29128/geomatik.1492923

Abstract

Taşkınlar, önemli afetlerdir; bu nedenle, büyüklük ve sıklıklarının doğru modellenmesi, can ve mal kaybını önlemek için disiplinli bir yaklaşımla taşkın risklerinin yönetilmesini gerektirir. Çalışmanın amacı, Batı Karadeniz Bölgesi, Düzce Şehri’nin Yığılca İlçesi’nde yer alan Küçük Melen İğneler Havzası’nda, Hidrolojik Mühendislik Merkezi Hidrolojik Modelleme Sistemi (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) modeli kullanılarak yağış-akış modeli oluşturmak ve modelin kullanılabilirliğini ve güvenirliliğini göstermektir. Bu amaçla gerekli hidrolojik bilgiler, toprak grupları, arazi sınıflandırılması ve sayısal yükseklik modelinden oluşturulmuştur. Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri, HEC-HMS modeli ile birleştirerek yağış-akış modeli üretilmiştir. HEC-HMS yağış-akış modelinin kalibrasyon işlemi için 14–20 Temmuz 2019 tarihli bir saatlik akım değerleri kullanılmıştır. Yağış-akış modelinin doğruluğunu tespit etmek için NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Effiency), PBIAS (Percentage of Bias) ve RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) model performans ölçümleri incelenmiştir. Çalışma, HEC-HMS modelinin taşkın akım değerlerini, pik seviyelerini ve zamanlamasını başarılı bir şekilde tahmin ettiğini göstermektedir. Model, taşkın debisi ve hız alanları gibi kritik parametreleri doğru bir şekilde tahmin ederek, taşkın modelleme çalışmalarında etkili bir araç olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Ayrıca, sonuçlar taşkın riski yönetimi ve stratejik planlama için temel veriler sunarak, etkilenen bölgelerde alınacak önlemler için önemli bir örnek teşkil etmektedir.

Keywords

Yağış, Küçük Melen İğneler Havzası, Taşkın, HEC-HMS

Thanks

Bu çalışma, Doç. Dr. Olgu AYDIN danışmanlığında 21.06.2022 tarihinde tamamlanan “Küçük Melen İğneler Havzası’ndaki taşkınların hidrolojik modelleme yöntemiyle (HEC-HMS) belirlenmesi” başlıklı yüksek lisans tezi esas alınarak hazırlanmıştır (Yüksek Lisans/Ankara Üniversitesi, Dil ve Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi, Ankara, Türkiye, 2022).

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