Sermaye kontrolleri gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sermaye akımlarını yönetmeye yardımcı olur mu? Doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan panel tahminlerinden elde edilen kanıtlar

Abstract

Özellikle Küresel Finansal Krizin ardından, sermaye akımlarının büyüklüğü ve oynaklığında artışa neden olan risklerin farkına varılmasıyla birlikte, pek çok gelişmekte olan ülke sermaye kontrollerini daha yoğun kullanmaya başlamıştır. Bu makale, sermaye kontrollerinin sermaye akımlarını yönetmekteki rolünü daha iyi anlamak için brüt sermaye girişlerini ve çıkışlarına uygulanan kısıtlamalarının bu akımlar üzerindeki etkisi olup olmadığını incelemektedir. Ayrıca bu çalışma ülkelerin finansal gelişmişlik düzeyinin sermaye kontrollerinin etkililiğinde bir rol üstlenip üstlenmediğini sorgulamaktadır. 1998 ve 2017 yılları arasında kırk dört gelişmekte olan ülkeyi içeren, doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan panel veri tekniklerini kullanan bir veri seti kullanılarak elde edilen sonuçlara göre, daha sıkı sermaye kontrolleri brüt sermaye çıkışlarını azaltmada etkili olmaktadır. Bunun yanı sıra, brüt sermaye girişleri ve oynaklık kısıtlamalardaki artışa anlamlı bir tepki vermemektedir. Ancak, ülkeler belirli bir finansal gelişme seviyesinin üzerine çıktıklarında, daha sıkı sermaye kontrollerinin brüt girişlerin büyüklüğü üzerinde bir azalmaya yol açtığı görülmektedir.

Keywords

• Brüt sermaye girişleri ve çıkışları
• sermaye kontrolleri
• finansal gelişmişlik
• Panel veri tahminleri

Do capital controls help to manage capital flows in developing countries? Evidence from linear and nonlinear panel estimations

Abstract

With the recognition of risks arising from the increasing volume and volatility of capital flows, particularly after the global financial crisis, many developing countries have started to impose capital controls to cope with macro-financial instability. To improve our understanding of the role of capital controls in managing capital flows, this study investigates whether restrictions on inflows and outflows have an impact on gross flows. Further, this paper questions whether the financial development level of countries has a role in the effectiveness of capital control policies. Utilizing a dataset encompassing 44 developing countries from 1998 to 2017 and employing linear and nonlinear panel data techniques, the findings indicate that tighter outflow controls lead to a decrease in gross outflows. In contrast, the gross inflows and the volatility of each flow do not significantly respond to the increases in restrictions. The results of further investigation based on nonlinear estimations reveal that when countries go beyond a certain threshold level of financial development, tighter capital controls lead to a reduction in the size of gross inflows.

Keywords

• Gross inflows and outflows
• capital controls
• financial development
• Panel data estimation

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