Sectoral contributions to sustainable development in Türkiye: Which sector is more effective?

Abstract

Enhancing sustainable development performance requires an assessment of the relative roles of economic sectors in this process. However, comparative empirical evidence regarding the sectoral structure of sustainable development is limited, particularly for Türkiye. Therefore, this study examines the long-run relationship between sectoral structure and sustainable development in Türkiye by focusing on agriculture, industry, construction, and services. The empirical analysis uses annual data for the period 2000–2022 and proceeds in three steps. First, the stationarity properties of the variables are examined using ADF, PP, and Zivot–Andrews unit root tests. The Johansen cointegration test is then applied to determine whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the variables. Finally, long-run coefficients are estimated using the DOLS estimator, while the FMOLS estimator is used as a robustness check. The findings show that all sectoral shares are positively associated with the sustainable development index in the long run. Based on the DOLS results, the services sector has the highest coefficient at 0.882, followed by the agriculture, industry, and construction sectors with coefficients of 0.302, 0.265, and 0.193, respectively. The FMOLS robustness check supports the DOLS long-run estimates. The study contributes to the literature by providing comparative sector-level evidence for Türkiye. It also highlights that sustainable development strategies should not rely on a single sector, but should be designed through balanced and sector-specific policies that account for sectoral differences.

Keywords

• Sustainable Development
• Sectoral Analysis
• DOLS
• FMOLS
• Türkiye

Türkiye’de sürdürülebilir kalkınmaya sektörel katkılar: Hangi sektör daha etkili?

Abstract

Sürdürülebilir kalkınma performansının güçlendirilmesi, ekonomik sektörlerin bu süreçteki göreli rollerinin anlaşılmasını gerektirmektedir. Ancak sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın sektörel yapısına ilişkin karşılaştırmalı ampirik kanıtlar, özellikle Türkiye için sınırlı düzeydedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışma, tarım, sanayi, inşaat ve hizmetler sektörlerine odaklanarak Türkiye’de sektörel yapı ile sürdürülebilir kalkınma arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Çalışmanın ampirik analizi 2000–2022 dönemine ait yıllık verilere dayanmakta ve üç aşamalı bir yöntem izlemektedir. İlk olarak, değişkenlerin durağanlık özellikleri ADF, PP ve Zivot–Andrews birim kök testleriyle incelenmiştir. Daha sonra, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir denge ilişkisinin bulunup bulunmadığını belirlemek amacıyla Johansen eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Son olarak, uzun dönem katsayıları DOLS tahmincisiyle tahmin edilmiş; FMOLS tahmincisi ise sağlamlık kontrolü olarak kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, tüm sektör paylarının uzun dönemde sürdürülebilir kalkınma endeksi ile pozitif ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir. DOLS sonuçlarına göre, hizmetler sektörü 0,882 ile en yüksek katsayıya sahiptir; bunu sırasıyla 0,302, 0,265 ve 0,193 katsayılarıyla tarım, sanayi ve inşaat sektörleri izlemektedir. FMOLS sağlamlık kontrolü, DOLS uzun dönem tahminlerini desteklemektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye’de sürdürülebilir kalkınmanın sektörel yapısına ilişkin karşılaştırmalı ampirik kanıt sunarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Ayrıca sürdürülebilir kalkınma stratejilerinin tek bir sektöre dayanmaması; sektörlerin farklı rollerini dikkate alan dengeli ve sektör odaklı politikalarla tasarlanması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma
• Sektörel Analiz
• DOLS
• FMOLS
• Türkiye

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