İHRACAT ÜRÜN ÇEŞİTLENDİRMESİNİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDEN KANITLAR

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 85 gelişmekte olan ülkede 2000-2022 döneminde ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesinin belirleyicilerinin tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Ülkeler Afrika, Amerika, Asya ve Okyanusya şeklinde bölgesel olarak sınıflandırılarak 3 ayrı veri seti oluşturulmuş ve ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. İhracat ürün çeşitlendirmesi üzerinde önemli etkileri olabileceği düşünülen üretken kapasite endeksi, ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, sermaye, işgücü, enflasyon, kamu harcamaları ve ticari dışa açıklık bağımsız değişken olarak analize dahil edilmiştir. Tüm ülkelerin olduğu veri setinin analizi sonucunda, üretken kapasite endeksi, sermaye, emek ve kamu harcamalarındaki artışın ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesini olumlu yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme ve ticari dışa açıklığın ise ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesi üzerinde olumsuz etkilerde bulunduğu görülmüştür. Afrika ülke grubunda, üretken kapasite endeksi ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarındaki artışın ihracat çeşitlendirmesini artırdığı ancak kamu harcamalarını azalttığı belirlenmiştir. Amerika ülke grubunda, işgücü ve ticari dışa açıklıktaki artışın ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesini pozitif etkilediği saptanmıştır. Son olarak Asya ve Okyanusya ülke grubunda ise üretken kapasite endeksi, sermaye, işgücü ve kamu harcamalarındaki artışın ihracat ürün çeşitliliğini artırıcı etkilerinin olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

• İhracat çeşitlendirmesi
• üretken kapasite endeksi
• ekonomik büyüme
• panel veri analizi.

DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study aims to identify the determinants of export product diversification in 85 developing countries over the period 2000-2022. In order to conduct a more comprehensive assessment, these countries were classified according to their geographical regions: Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Oceania. Three separate data sets were created and empirically analyzed. The analysis includes several independent variables that are thought to have a significant effect on export product diversification. These variables are: productive capacity index, economic growth, foreign direct investments, capital, labor force, inflation, public expenditures, and trade openness. The analysis of all countries indicates that increases in the productive capacity index, capital, labor, and public expenditures have a positive effect on export product diversification. In contrast, economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect on export product diversification. In African countries, an increase in the productive capacity index and foreign direct investment is associated with an increase in export diversification. However, public expenditures have the opposite effect, leading to a decrease in export diversification. In American countries, increases in the labor force and trade openness have a positive effect on export product diversification. Finally, in Asia and Oceania, it has been found that increases in the productive capacity index, capital, labor force, and public expenditures have led to an increase in export product diversification.

Keywords

• Export product diversification
• productive capacity index
• economic growth
• panel data analysis.

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