Tayvan’ın 2016’dan Sonra Çin’e Yönelik Dengeleme Politikası: Üç İç Değişkenin Analizi

Abstract

Realist zihniyete göre, daha zayıf bir ülke, yükselen bir güçle karşı karşıya kaldığında üç seçeneğe sahiptir. Büyük güçle dostça ilişkiler kurmayı ve hatta aşırı durumlarda ona tamamen teslim olmayı içeren bir “peşine takılmaya” girebilir. Öte yandan “dengeleme,” söz konusu ülkenin düşmanlarıyla bir ittifak kurarak yükselen güce karşı koymaya çalışmaktır. “Riskten korunma” ise bu iki politikanın bir karışımıdır ve genel olarak ekonomik ilişkiler konusunda peşine takılmayı sürdürmek, ancak güvenlik söz konusu olduğunda dengelemeyi tercih etmek anlamına gelir. Bu çalışma, Taypey’in anakara Çin'e karşı dengeleme kararına yol açan iç faktörleri incelemektedir. Chen ve Ma yönetimleri 2000'lerde ve 2010’ların başında bir riskten korunma politikası izlerken, 2016'da Tsai Ing-wen'in seçilmesi Taypey'in Çin'e yönelik politikasını değiştirmesine neden olmuştur. Bu makale, bu politikanın üç ana iç değişken tarafından desteklendiğini savunmaktadır. İlk değişken seçim sonuçlarıdır. Bağımsızlık yanlısı DİP son üç başkanlık seçimini kazanmış ve ideolojik konumu, Tayvan’ın Çin’e karşı dengeleme politikasını sürdürmesine olanak sağlamıştır. Geriye kalan iki faktör, yani “kuşak değişimi nedeniyle Tayvan'ın Tayvanlaşması” ve “Tayvanlı ve Çinli kimliğine ilişkin değişen kamuoyu algısı,” DİP yönetiminin Çin’e karşı saf dengeleme politikasını sürdürmesine yardımcı olmuştur.

Keywords

• Dengeleme
• Riskten korunma
• Çin’in yükselişi
• Dengeleme ve peşine takılma
• Çin-Tayvan ilişkileri

Taiwan’s Balancing Policy Against China after 2016: An Analysis of Three Domestic Variables

Abstract

According to realistic mindset, a weaker country has three options when faced with a rising power. It can engage in bandwagoning, which includes having friendly relations with the great power and even in extreme cases, completely capitulating to it. Balancing, on the other hand, is trying to confront the rising power by having an alliance with the enemies of said country. Hedging is a mixture between the two and generally, it means pursuing bandwagoning regarding economic relations, but preferring balancing on security issues. This study examines the domestic factors that led to Taipei’s decision of balancing vis-à-vis mainland China. While the Chen and Ma administrations pursued a hedging policy in the 2000s and early 2010s, the election of Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 resulted in Taipei changing this policy. The article argues that this policy is undergirded by three domestic variables. The first variable is the election results. Pro-independence DPP won the last three presidential elections. Their ideological position allowed Taipei to pursue balancing against China. The two remaining factors, namely “Taiwanization of Taiwan because of a generational shift” and the “changing public opinion regarding Taiwanese and Chinese identity” helped the DPP administration to pursue pure balancing against China.

Keywords

• Balancing
• hedging
• China’s rise
• balancing and bandwagoning
• Cross-strait relations

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