Enerji Güvenliği ve Jeopolitik Kırılganlık: İsrail-İran Savaşının ASEAN Ekonomilerine Etkileri

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Şubat 2026 tarihinde meydana gelen İran-İsrail çatışması ile birlikte kapanan Hürmüz Boğazı’nın, ASEAN bölgesi devletlerinin ekonomik durumuna olan etkisi analiz edilecektir. Neorealist Uluslararası İlişkiler kuramı ile birlikte darboğaz kademesi mekanizması ve enerji güvenliği teorisi çerçevesinde teşkil edilen bu çalışma, krizin direk olarak enerji kesintisinin ötesinde, özellikle petrokimya alanındaki tedarik zinciri ve gübre talebi ile anında ortaya çıkan enflasyonla yükselen günlük tüketim ve gıda fiyatları konularında meydana gelen olumsuz durumu incelemektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, böylesine geniş kapsamlı bir ekonomik darbeye karşı ASEAN ekonomilerinin genel itibariyle yapısal olarak hazırlıksız olduğu gerçeğini ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Ancak bölge ülkeleri sürece, birbirinden farklı tepkiler vermektedir. Ayrıca çalışma, Hürmüz Boğazı krizinin Çin’in bölgesel etkisi ve yükselişine de değinmektedir. Çin’in stratejik olarak İran ile tesis ettiği olumlu ilişkileri ile petrol rezervleri, kendi konumunu güçlendirmekle birlikte avantaj da sağlamakladır. Buna ek olarak çalışma, ASEAN bölgesi için enerji ve gübre rezerv koordinasyonu ile ASEAN Elektrik Ortak Şebekesi, Enerji Dayanışma Fonu ile körfez ülkeleri ile olan ilişkilerinde daha açık diplomasi ile çok taraflı bir yapı oluşmasını önermektedir. Makalenin literatüre özgün katkısı ile Enerji güvenliğini gıda güvenliği ile ilişkilendiren darboğaz kademesi bakış açısını ASEAN’a uyarlamasında ve Hürmüz Boğazı krizini sadece olağan üstü bir durum olarak değil, uzun zamandır süregelen ASEAN’daki yapısal ihmallerin bir sonucu olarak ele almasında yatmaktadır.

Keywords

• Hürmüz Boğazı
• ASEAN
• Enerji Güvenliği
• İsrail-İran Savaşı.

Energy Security and Geopolitical Vulnerability: The Impact of The Israel-Iran War on ASEAN Economies

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on ASEAN member states, triggered by the Iran–Israel conflict that erupted in February 2026. Framed within the theoretical perspectives of neorealist international relations theory, the chokepoint cascade mechanism, and energy security theory, the study examines the adverse consequences extending beyond the immediate energy supply disruption—particularly those affecting petrochemical supply chains, fertilizer demand, and the rapid inflationary pressures on daily consumption goods and food prices. The findings reveal that ASEAN economies are, by and large, structurally unprepared to absorb an economic shock of such magnitude. Nevertheless, the responses exhibited by regional states diverge considerably from one another. The study further addresses the implications of the Strait of Hormuz crisis for China’s regional influence and its continued ascendancy, arguing that China’s strategically cultivated relations with Iran, coupled with its substantial petroleum reserves, have both consolidated its position and afforded it a distinct strategic advantage. In addition, the study proposes the establishment of a multilateral framework for ASEAN encompassing coordinated energy and fertilizer reserves, the ASEAN Power Grid, an Energy Solidarity Fund, and a more transparent diplomatic engagement with the Gulf states. The article’s original contribution to the literature lies in its adaptation of the chokepoint cascade perspective—linking energy security with food security—to the ASEAN context, and in its reconceptualization of the Strait of Hormuz crisis not merely as an exceptional contingency, but as the manifestation of long-standing structural neglect within ASEAN.

Keywords

• Strait of Hormuz
• ASEAN
• Energy Security
• Israel-Iran War.

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