TÜRKİYE’DE UYGULANAN PARA ve MALİYE POLİTİKALARININ İMALAT SANAYİİ İSTİHDAMI ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİNİN ANALİZİ (2009:01-2019:10)

Countries use monetary and fiscal policies to achieve their macro economic goals. Macro economic performance criterias related to internal balance are economic growth, unemployment rate and inflation rate. The implementation of monetary and fiscal policies supporting each other makes it easier to reach the targets related to the performance criteria of an economy.

Macroeconomic policies are used to achieve a steady growth that is not inflationary. To achieve this goal, there are two main groups of policy instruments; one is about monetary conditions and the other is about financial conditions. Monetary instruments are used by the Central Bank and financial instruments are used by the Ministry of Finance . The aims and results of policy precautions taken by these two institutions often conflict with each other. Therefore, effective implementation of policy decisions requires policy coordination to achieve the set goals. Policy coordination should be supported by tangible, institutional and business arrangements such as the money and financial coordination board. Successful macroeconomic policy management is required to achieve sustainable economic growth with a stable inflation rate. Monetary and fiscal policies are two measures of macroeconomic management. The government may enforce a restrictive monetary policy by reducing the money supply or increasing the policy interest rate. On the contrary, the government can implement an expansionary monetary policy by increasing the money supply or reducing the policy interest rate.

It is seen that monetary policy is implemented in time as monetary targeting strategy, sometimes in exchange rate targeting, and sometimes in the form of inflation targeting. Especially the main target of monetary policies implemented since the 1990s has been determined to ensure price stability. However, the global crisis that emerged in 2008 also affected monetary policy practices.

The emergence of the global financial crisis in 2008 caused countries to use a wide variety of tools to tackle the negative effects of this deep crisis. Estimates of the implementation of the monetary policy made it clear that this policy was used more intensively by developed countries, especially after the intensification of the short-term interest rates, especially after the intensification of the global financial crisis. On the other hand, fiscal policy was also used as an important economic tool against the effects of the crisis. The global financial crisis has had a profound impact on monetary policy implementation in various countries. Due to the velocity and strength of developments in the financial markets and the economy, monetary policy makers are able to conduct ex-ante analyzes that are previously under their responsibility, extensively predicting possible changes in their vehicles or communications.

This study investigates whether monetary and fiscal policy can affect manufacturing industry employment tendency. The article comprise the 2009: 01-2019: 10 period with monthly data and tries to explain the issue with VAR analysis. In this study, manufacturing industry is represented by employment figures and monetary policy by M1 Money Supply, M2 Money Supply, Total Time Deposit, and fiscal policy by Total Tax Revenues, Indirect and Direct Taxes. In this study, double logarithmic model was used as econometric model. The analyzes were performed in Gretl program.

At the end of the study; According to the monthly data for the period of 2009: 01-2019: 10, the following results have emerged.
 With a 5% margin of error (95% confidence), in the long run there is a positive relationship between M1 money supply and employment in the manufacturing industry, but in the short run; there is no relationship between the two variables,
 With 10% error margin (90% confidence), in the long run there is a negative relationship between M2 money supply and employment in the manufacturing industry, but in the short term; there is no relationship between the two variables,
 With a 5% margin of error (95% confidence), in the short run there is a negative relationship between total time deposits and employment in the manufacturing industry,but there is no relationship between the two variables in the long run,
 With a 10% margin of error (90% confidence), in the long run there is a positive relationship between indirect taxes and employment in the manufacturing industry, but there is no relationship between the two variables in the short term,
 It has been determined that there is no relationship between total tax revenues, direct taxes variables and employment of manufacturing industry in both the short and long run.

The results of this study which comprises the 2009: 01-2019: 10 period with monthly data in Turkey is the effect of monetary and fiscal policies which are named as stabilization policy, on manufacturing employment is vary in the long and short run. Turkey results obtained for this study are similar to those stated in the literature.

Bu makale, para ve maliye politikasının imalat sanayii istihdam eğilimini etkileyip etkilemeyeceğini araştırmaktadır. 2009:01-2019:10 dönemini aylık verilerle kapsayan makale VAR analizi ile konuyu açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışmada imalat sanayii istihdam rakamları ile, para politikası M1 Para Arzı, M2 Para Arzı, Vadeli Mevduat Toplamı ile, maliye politikası Toplam Vergi Gelirleri, Dolaylı ve Dolaysız Vergiler tarafından temsil edilmektedir. Çalışmada ekonometrik model olarak çift logaritmik model kullanılmıştır. Analizler Greatl programında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analizde ADF Birim-Kök Testi, gecikme uzunluğu, Eşbütünleşme Testi, Etki –Tepki Analizi, Varyans Ayrıştırması ve Birim Çembere Göre Var Ters Kökleri testleri yapılmıştır. Çalışma sonunda; para politikasını temsilen ele alınan değişkenlerin imalat sanayii istihdamına etkisinin kısa ve uzun döneme göre farklılık gösterdiği, maliye politikasını temsilen modele dahil edilen değişkenlerden sadece dolaylı vergilerin imalat sanayii istihdamını etkilediği ortaya çıkmıştır.