Projecting Grape Harvest Area and Production in Turkey Using Time Series Analysis

Year 2017, , 64 - 73, 29.12.2017

Sadiye Peral Eyduran Melekşen Akın

https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag4297

Abstract

The objective of this study was to forecast grape harvest area and production in Turkey for 2016-2025 period. For this aim, the FAOSTAT data on grape harvest area and production of 1961-2015 period in Turkey was used. Exponential smoothing models were compared to model grape harvest area and production. Holt model results reflected that a decrease in grape harvest area from 453 985 ha to 382 250 ha was forecasted for the 2016-2025 period. According to the Holt model, the grape production forecasted as 3 819 753 tons in 2016 will increase to 3 944 376 tons in 2025. The projection results of this study could provide useful information for developing good policies for food sustainability, grape production and price structuring in Turkey for the next years.

Keywords

Exponential smoothing, forecasting, grape, Holt method, time series

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