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Temperature changes in Büyük Menderes Basin (Turkey): has there been a warming hiatus at early 2000s ?

Year 2016, Volume: 33 Issue: 2, 72 - 78, 26.09.2016
https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag972

Abstract

In the recent decade, a speculation has arisen on the evolution of global mean surface temperature, that there has been a slowdown in the rate of temperature increase or a cooling after the unusually strong El-Nino event in 1997/1998. This phenomenon is called as “slowdown”, “hiatus” or “pause”. Beside of global evidences, some studies in regional or sub-regional scales have also shown the existence of a hiatus, for example in China and Spain. The aim of this study is to examine the possible existence of so-called hiatus in a basin scale, in Büyük Menderes basin located in western Turkey. Temperature data covered the period from 1969 to 2013 for five climatic stations scattared homogeneously over the basin. Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s Slope Estimator and an innovative trend analysis technique were used to assess the temperature changes. The results showed that Büyük Menderes basin has experienced a continued warming at early 2000s with a weaker rate and insignificant at %95 level in comparison to the strong warming at the last one or two decades of 20th century. Consequently, the warming slowdown detected in global scale is also evident in Büyük Menderes basin.

References

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  • Gilbert RO (1987). Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring. Wiley, New York, NY.
  • Gonzalez-Hidalgo JC, Peña-Angulo D, Brunetti M and Cortesi N (2016). Recent trend in temperature evolution in Spanish mainland (1951–2010): from warming to hiatus. International Journal of Climatology, 36: 2405-2416.
  • Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Bronnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener FJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Easterling DR, Kaplan A, Soden BJ, Thorne PW, Wild M and Zhai PM (2013).
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  • Karl TR, Arguez A, Huang B, Lawrimore JH, McMahon JR, Menne MJ, Peterson TC, Vose RS and Zhang H-M (2015). Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science, 348: 1469-1472.
  • Klein Tank AMG et. all, (2002). Daily dataset of 20th-Century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European climate assessment. International Journal of Climatology, 22: 1441–1453.
  • Kosaka Y and Xie S-P (2013). Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501: 403–407.
  • Kosaka Y and Xie S-P (2015). Tropical Pacific influence on the recent hiatus in surface global warming. US Clivar, 13: 10-15.
  • Li Q, Yang S, Xu W, Wang XL, Jones P, Parker D, Zhou L, Feng Y and Gao Y (2015). China experiencing the recent warming hiatus. Geophysical Research Letters, 42: 889-898.
  • Meehl GA (2015). Decadal climate variability and the early-2000s hiatuss. US Clivar, 13: 1-6.
  • Salmi T, Määttä A, Anttila P, Ruoho-Airola T, Amnell T. (2002). Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates – the Excel Template Application MAKESENS, Publications on Air Quality, No. 31. The Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Şen Z (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, 17: 1042-1046.
  • Trenberth KE (2015). Has there been a hiatus? Science, 349: 691-692.
  • Trenberth KE and Fasullo JT (2013). An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Future, 1: 19–32.
  • Vincent LA and Mekis E (2006). Changes in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Canada over the Twentieth Century. Atmosphere-Ocean, 44: 177–193.
  • Vuille M, Franquist E, Garreaud R, Casimiro WSL and Caceres B (2015). Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research –Atmospheres, 120: 3745-3757.
  • Wendel J (2015). Global warming “hiatus” never happened, study says. Eos, 96, doi:10/1029/2015EO031147.
  • Yeşilırmak E (2014). Soil temperature trends in Büyük Menderes Basin, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 21: 859–866.
  • Yeşilırmak E and Atatanır L (2016). Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in western Turkey. Natural Hazards, 81: 687–704.
Year 2016, Volume: 33 Issue: 2, 72 - 78, 26.09.2016
https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag972

Abstract

References

  • Easterling DR and Wehner MF (2009). Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L08706.
  • Gilbert RO (1987). Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring. Wiley, New York, NY.
  • Gonzalez-Hidalgo JC, Peña-Angulo D, Brunetti M and Cortesi N (2016). Recent trend in temperature evolution in Spanish mainland (1951–2010): from warming to hiatus. International Journal of Climatology, 36: 2405-2416.
  • Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Bronnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener FJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Easterling DR, Kaplan A, Soden BJ, Thorne PW, Wild M and Zhai PM (2013).
  • Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels JA, Xia Y, Bex V and Midgley PM (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • Karl TR, Arguez A, Huang B, Lawrimore JH, McMahon JR, Menne MJ, Peterson TC, Vose RS and Zhang H-M (2015). Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. Science, 348: 1469-1472.
  • Klein Tank AMG et. all, (2002). Daily dataset of 20th-Century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European climate assessment. International Journal of Climatology, 22: 1441–1453.
  • Kosaka Y and Xie S-P (2013). Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature, 501: 403–407.
  • Kosaka Y and Xie S-P (2015). Tropical Pacific influence on the recent hiatus in surface global warming. US Clivar, 13: 10-15.
  • Li Q, Yang S, Xu W, Wang XL, Jones P, Parker D, Zhou L, Feng Y and Gao Y (2015). China experiencing the recent warming hiatus. Geophysical Research Letters, 42: 889-898.
  • Meehl GA (2015). Decadal climate variability and the early-2000s hiatuss. US Clivar, 13: 1-6.
  • Salmi T, Määttä A, Anttila P, Ruoho-Airola T, Amnell T. (2002). Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates – the Excel Template Application MAKESENS, Publications on Air Quality, No. 31. The Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Şen Z (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, 17: 1042-1046.
  • Trenberth KE (2015). Has there been a hiatus? Science, 349: 691-692.
  • Trenberth KE and Fasullo JT (2013). An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Future, 1: 19–32.
  • Vincent LA and Mekis E (2006). Changes in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Canada over the Twentieth Century. Atmosphere-Ocean, 44: 177–193.
  • Vuille M, Franquist E, Garreaud R, Casimiro WSL and Caceres B (2015). Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research –Atmospheres, 120: 3745-3757.
  • Wendel J (2015). Global warming “hiatus” never happened, study says. Eos, 96, doi:10/1029/2015EO031147.
  • Yeşilırmak E (2014). Soil temperature trends in Büyük Menderes Basin, Turkey. Meteorological Applications, 21: 859–866.
  • Yeşilırmak E and Atatanır L (2016). Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in western Turkey. Natural Hazards, 81: 687–704.
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ercan Yeşilırmak This is me

Publication Date September 26, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 33 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Yeşilırmak, E. (2016). Temperature changes in Büyük Menderes Basin (Turkey): has there been a warming hiatus at early 2000s ?. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpaşa University (JAFAG), 33(2), 72-78. https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag972