Trend Analysis of the Flow and Water Quality Data for the Broad River Basin, South Carolina, USA

Year 2024, Volume: 41 Issue: 3, 226 - 235, 31.12.2024

Betül Mete , Sinan Nacar , Adem Bayram

https://doi.org/10.55507/gopzfd.1556000

Abstract

Water quality is vital for human health and the protection of natural ecosystems, and demand for quality water is increasing day by day. It is known that changes in precipitation and temperature patterns due to climate change directly or indirectly affect water quantity and quality. In order to understand the potential effects of climate change on water resources, it is very important to know the changes in flow and water quality data over time. Trend analysis methods are the most used methods for this purpose. In this study, monthly, seasonal, and annual changes of dissolved oxygen (DO), water temperature (WT), discharge (Q), and specific conductance (SC) parameters, which are measured and recorded daily between 1987 and 2022 at four monitoring stations in the Broad River Basin (South Carolina, USA), were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. Electrical conductivity (EC) values, calculated by considering SC and WT data, were considered. The Mann-Kendall test and ITA identified significant trends in 32.4 and 64.6% of the 272-time series analysed, respectively. It was determined that ITA was more sensitive in identifying decreasing trends. While the spatially and temporally varying trends in the river DO concentration and EC values were associated with human activities, it was concluded that the increasing trends in WT values and decreasing trends in Q values may be due to climate change on precipitation and air temperature parameters. This study, based on long-term data sets, illuminates the global concerns about the impacts of climate change on water quality and provides important findings that will guide sustainable management of water resources and measures to be taken against climate change. It is the first study to examine long-term trends of water quality parameters for the basin.

Keywords

Broad River, Innovative trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Water quality

Thanks

The authors sincerely thank the United States Geological Survey staff who made this work possible by ensuring the monitoring, processing, and management of the river water-quality data. Theyare also appreciative of the providers of the Salford Predictive Modeler 8 software, which was used to perform the analyses.

Broad Nehri Havzası, için Akış ve Su Kalitesi Verilerinin Trend Analizi, Güney Karolina, ABD

Abstract

Su kalitesi, insan sağlığı ve doğal ekosistemlerin korunması bakımından hayati öneme sahip olup, kaliteli suya olan ihtiyaç her geçen gün artmaktadır. İklim değişikliği sebebiyle yağış ve sıcaklık rejimlerinde meydana gelen değişimlerin su miktarını ve kalitesini doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak etkilediği bilinmektedir. İklim değişikliğinin su kaynakları üzerindeki potansiyel etkilerinin anlaşılabilmesi için akım ve su kalitesi verilerinin zaman içerisindeki değişimlerinin bilinmesi oldukça önemlidir. Trend analizleri bu amaçla en çok kullanılan yöntemlerdir. Bu çalışmada, Broad Nehri Havzası’nda (Güney Carolina, ABD) seçilen dört gözlem istasyonunda 1987-2022 yılları arasında günlük olarak ölçülmüş ve kaydedilmiş çözünmüş oksijen (DO), su sıcaklığı (WT), debi (Q) ve özgül iletkenlik (SC) parametrelerinin aylık, mevsimlik ve yıllık değişimleri Mann-Kendall testi ve yenilikçi eğilim analizi (ITA) yöntemleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada SC ve WT verileri dikkate alınarak hesaplanan elektriksel iletkenlik (EC) değerleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz edilen 272 zaman serisinin %32.4’ünde Mann-Kendall testi, %64.6’sında ise ITA yöntemi anlamlı eğilimler belirlemiştir. ITA yöntemi azalan eğilimleri belirlemede daha hassas olduğu tespit edilmiştir. DO konsantrasyonları ve EC değerlerindeki mekâna ve zamana bağlı olarak değişiklik gösteren eğilimler insani faaliyetler ile ilişkilendirilirken, WT değerlerindeki artma ve Q değerlerindeki azalma eğilimlerinin iklim değişikliğinin yağış ve hava sıcaklığı parametreleri üzerindeki etkilerinden kaynaklanabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır. Uzun süreli veri setlerine dayanan bu çalışma iklim değişikliğinin su kalitesi üzerindeki etkilerine dair küresel endişelere ışık tutmakta ve su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilir yönetimi ve iklim değişikliğine karşı alınacak önlemler konusunda rehberlik edecek önemli bulgular sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Broad Nehri, yenilikçi eğilim analizi, Mann-Kendall testi, su kalitesi

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