Cosine Similarity Scores for Central Bank Monetary Policy Statements: An Empirical Analysis of FED Press Releases

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 58 - 77, 05.07.2024

Mehmet Fatih Görgün , Erhan Demireli

https://doi.org/10.62001/gsijses.1491120

Öz

This study aims to analyze the monetary policy texts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) through similarity analysis. Text similarity scores are calculated using the cosine similarity theory to identify the content similarity between consecutive press releases. The results of the analysis show that the content of FOMC releases is significantly similar in certain periods and that these similarities are shaped by changes in economic conditions, but that the population behaves differently despite similar policy texts in response to changes in economic conditions. Among the interesting results of the study are that similarities provide consistency and reliability regarding the FOMC's policy decisions, but may create uncertainty and reduce the effectiveness of the FED's communication. The study also aims to contribute to the literature by highlighting the potential of using natural language processing (NLP) tools in the analysis of central bank communications.

Anahtar Kelimeler

FED, FOMC, Cosine Similarity, Natural Language Processing (NLP)

Merkez Bankası Para Politikası Metinleri İçin Kosinüs Benzerlik Skorları: FED Basın Duyuruları Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışma, Federal Açık Piyasa Komitesi'nin (FOMC) para politikası metinlerinin benzerlik analizi yoluyla incelenmesini amaçlamaktadır. Metin benzerlik skorları, ardışık duyurular arasındaki içerik benzerliğini belirlemek için kosinüs benzerliği teorisi kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, belirli dönemlerde FOMC duyurularının içeriğinin önemli ölçüde benzeştiğini ve bu benzerliklerin ekonomik koşullardaki değişikliklere bağlı olarak şekillendiğini ancak nüfusun ekonomik koşullardaki değişimi dikkate alarak benzer politika metinlerine rağmen farklı davranışlar sergilediğini göstermektedir. Benzerliklerin, FOMC'nin politika kararlarına ilişkin tutarlılık ve güvenilirlik sağladığı, ancak belirsizlikler yaratabildiği ve FED’in iletişim etkinliğini azaltabileceği çalışmanın ilgi çekici sonuçları arasındadır. Çalışma, ayrıca doğal dil işleme (NLP) araçlarının merkez bankası iletişimlerinin analizinde kullanımının potansiyelini vurgulayarak literatüre katkı sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

FED, FOMC, Kosinüs Benzerliği, Doğal Dil İşleme (NLP)

Kaynakça

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