TÜRKIYE’DE 2008 SONRASI PARA ARZININ İÇSELLİĞİ-DIŞSALLIĞI ANALİZİ

Year 2021, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 416 - 443, 25.12.2021

Mehmet Mert Türk Salih Barışık

https://doi.org/10.46849/guiibd.972538

Abstract

Paranın yaratım sürecine yönelik tartışmalardaki fikir ayrılığı para arzının içsel (endogenous) mi dışsal (exogenous) mı belirlendiği noktasında derinleşmektedir. Monetarist görüşe ait enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi altındaki Türkiye ekonomisini test eden 2008:10-2021:02 dönemli çalışmada para arzının Monetarist görüş varsayımını yanlışlar şekilde içsel olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Paranın içselliği para yaratımını üretim ile bağdaştırarak merkez bankalarını son ödünç verme mercii olarak sistemin içinde tutmaktadır. Analiz sonucunda para arzının içsel olduğu bulgusu diğer bir bakış açısıyla ilgili dönem için TCMB’nin fonksiyonel bir bağımsızlık taşımadığını da dolaylı olarak göstermektedir.

Keywords

Para Politikası ve Teorisi, Para Arzının İçselliği-Dışsallığı, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testleri

INTERNALITY-EXTERNALITY ANALYSIS OF MONETARY SUPPLY POST-2008 IN TURKEY

Abstract

The disagreement in the debates on the creation process of money deepens at the point of whether the money supply is determined internally (endogenous) or externally (exogenous). In the 2008:10-2021:02 period study that tests the Turkish economy under the inflation targeting regime of the Monetarist view, it has been determined that the money supply is internal, inaccurately the Monetarist view assumption. The internality of money links money creation with production, keeping central banks in the system as the lender of last resort. As a result of the analysis, the finding that the money supply is internal also indirectly shows that the CBRT did not have a functional independence for the relevant period from another point of view.

Keywords

Monetary Theory and Policy, Internality-Externality of Money Supply, Time Series Analysis, Structural Break Unit Root Tests

References

• Ahmad, N., & Ahmed, F. (2006). The Long-run and Short-run Endogeneity of Money Supply in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation. SBP-Research Bulletin, 2(1), 268–278.
• Aybar, S., & Laurence, H. (1998). Credibility Models of Central Bank Independence And The Case of Turkey. METU Studies in Development, 25(4), 535–558.
• Aydın, Y., Dayıoğlu, T., & Güner, A. (2019). Para Arzının İçselliği: Teori ve Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 12(66), 1008–1012.
• Badarudin, Z. E., Ariff, M., & Khalid, A. M. (2013). Post-Keynesian Money Endogeneity Evidence in G-7 Economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 33, 146–162.
• Bernanke, B. S., & Mishkin, S. F. (1997). Inflation Targeting: A New Framework For Monetary Policy? NBER Working Paper Series, 5893.
• Bibow, J. (1998). On Keynesian Theories of Liquidity Preference. The Manchester School, 66(2), 238–273.
• Büyükılgaz, U. (2019). İçsel Para teorisi ve Joan Robinson. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 11(20), 219–230.
• Çavuşoğlu, A. T. (2003). The Endogenous Money Growth: An Outcome Of High Budget Deficits in Turkey. H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 111–127.
• Çepni, O., & Güney, E. (2017). Endogeneity of Money Supply: Evidence From Turkey. International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, 6(1), 1–10.
• Cheung, Y.-W., & Lai, K. (1995). Lag Order And Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, 13(3), 277–281.
• Colacchio, G., & Davanzati, G. F. (2017). Endogenous Money, Increasing Returns and Economic Growth:Nicholas Kaldor’s Contribution. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 41, 79–85.
• Dedeoğlu, D., & Öğüt, K. (2018). Examination of Money Supply Endogeneity in Turkey: Evidence From Asymmetric Causality Test. Cogent Economics & Finance, 1(1), 2–21.
• Demirgil, B. (2020). Para Arzı İçsellik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. İşletme Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2, 144–152.
• Dow, S. C. (2006). Endogenous Money: Structuralist. P. Arestis & M. C. Sawyer içinde, A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics (ss. 35–51). Edward Elgar.
• Duasa, J. (2007). Malaysian Foreign Direct Investment And Growth: Does Stability Matter. Journal of Economic Cooperation Among Islamic Countries, 28(2), 83–98.
• Erataş, F., Başçı Nur, H., & Çınar, S. (2015). Para Arzının Post Keynesyen Yorumu: Gelişmiş Ülkeler Örneği. Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(15), 398–409.
• Fontana, G. (2000). Post Keynesians and Circuitists on Money And Uncertainty: An Attempt at Generality. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(1), 27–48.
• Fontana, G. (2004). Rethinking Endogenous Money:A Constructive Interpretation of The Debate Between Horizontalist And Structuralist. Metroeconomica, 55(4), 367–385.
• Friedman, M. (1970). A Theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis. The Journal of Political Economy, 78(2), 193–238.
• Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1994). Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, And The Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 309–340.
• Görgens, E., Ruckriegel, K., & Seitz, F. (2004). Zur Problematik der LM-Kurve (No. 12).
• Greenidge, K., Craigwell, R., & Downes, D. (2001). Can Money Endogeneity Be Generalized? Empirical Evidence From Caribbean Economies. International Advances in Economic Research, 7(2), 253–258.
• Günal, M. (2012). Para Banka ve Finansal Sistem. Ankara: Berikan Yayınevi.
• Haghighat, J. (2012). The Endogenous Money in Iran: What it is and Why it Matters. International Journal Trade, Economics And Finance, 3(2), 82.
• Howells, P., & Hussein, K. (1998). The Endogeneity Of Money: Evidence From The G7. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(3), 329–340.
• Işık, S. (2000). Para Arzının Endojenliği Tartışması: Türkiye Örneği. Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi.
• Işık, S. (2004). Para Finans ve Kriz. Ankara: Akçağ Yayınları.
• Kaldor, N. (1970). The New Monetarism. Lloyds Bank Review, Lloyds Ban(97), 1–17.
• Karabulut, G. (2005). Para Arzının Endojenliği ve Türkiye Orneği. Yönetim Dergisi: İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi İşletme İktisadı Enstitüsü, 16(51), 25–31.
• Kofoğlu, İ. H. (2018). Para Arzı İçsellik Analizi Türkiye Örneği (2006-2017). Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 9(25), 137–152.
• Köksel, B. (2016). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Arzının İçselliği: 2006-2014 Dönem Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(2), 455–471.
• Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H., & Potter, S. M. (1996). Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models. Journal of Econometrics, 74(1), 119–147. doi: 10.1016/0304- 4076(95)01753-4
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082–1089.
• Minsky, H. (1957a). Central Banking and Money Market Changes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 71(2), 171–187.
• Minsky, H. (1957b). Monetary Systems and Accelerator Models. The American Economic Review, 47(6), 859–883.
• Mookerjee, R., & Peebles, G. (1998). Endogenous Money in China: Insights on Recent Policies. Journal of Asian Economics, 9(1), 139–158.
• Moore, B. J. (1983). Unpacking The Post Keynesian Black Box: Bank Lending And The Money Supply. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 5(4), 537–556.
• Moore, B. J. (1989). The Endogeneity Of Credit Money. Review of Political Economy, 1(1), 65–93.
• Myatt, A. (1986). Money Supply Endogeneity: An Empirical Test for the United States (1954-84). Journal of Economic Issues, 20(1), 133–144.
• Nayan, S., Kadir, N., Abdullah, M. S., & Ahmad, M. (2013). Post Keynesian Endogeneity of Money Supply: Panel Evidence. Procedia Economics and Finance, 7, 48–54.
• Nell, K. S. (2000). The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature of South Africa’s Money Supply under Direct and Indirect Monetary Control Measures. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(2), 313–329.
• Nesanır, Ö. (2011). Türkiye’de Para Arzı-Banka Kredileri İlişkisi: Var Analizi (1986-2010). Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 115–133.
• Özgür, G. (2008). İçsel Para Teorisine Genel Bir Bakış. H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(2), 51–79.
• Özgür, G. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Arzının İçsel Süreci. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 22(78), 67–90.
• Öztürk, N. (2016). Para, Banka, Kredi (Üçüncü bas). Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
• Palley, T. I. (1994). Competing Views of the Money Supply Process. Metroeconomica, 45(1), 397–403.
• Palley, T. I. (2006). Monetary Policy in an Endogenous Money Economy. P. Arestis & M. C. Sawyer içinde, A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics (ss.242–256). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
• Panagopoulos, Y., & Spiliotis, A. (2006). Testing Money Supply Endogeneity: The Case of Greece (1975-1998). European Research Studies, 9(1–2), 85–102.
• Paya, M. (2013). Para Teorisi ve Para Politikası (Altıncı ba). Ankara: Türkmen Kitabevi.
• Pollin, R. (1991). Two Theories of Money Supply Endogeneity. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 13(3), 366–396.
• Pollin, R. (1996). Money Supply Endogeneity: What are the Questions and Why do They Matter? G. Deleplace & E. J. Nell içinde, Money in Motion (pp. 490–515). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
• Rochon, L. P. (2001a). Cambridge’s Contribution to Endogenous Money: Robinson and Kahn on Credit and Money. Review of Political Economy, 13(7), 287–307.
• Rochon, L. P. (2001b). Horizantalism and New Keynesian Economics: The Role of Scarcity, Savings and Sticky Wages. L. P. Rochon & M. Vernengo içinde, Credit, Interest Rates and the Open Economy, Essays on Horizontalism (ss. 120–139). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
• Saud, A. (2015). Dynamics Of The Relationship Between Bank Loans And Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 14(3), 439–452.
• Seyrek, İ., Duman, M., & Sarıkaya, M. (2004). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması vePara Politikası Aracı: Türkiye’de Aktarım Mekanizması. C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 201–212.
• Shanmugam, B., Nair, M., & Li, O. W. (2003). The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia (1985-2000). Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 25(4), 599–611.
• Tarı, R. (2010). Ekonometri (6. baskı). Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
• Taş, B. K. O., & Togay, S. (2012). A Direct Test Of The Endogeneity Of Money: Implications For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries. Economic Modelling, 29(3), 577– 585.
• Vera, A. P. (2001). The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Some Evidence from Spain (1987–1998). Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(3), 509–526.
• Vymyatnina, Y. (2006). How Much Control Does Bank Of Russia Have Over Money Supply. Research in International Business And FFnance, 20(2), 131–144.
• Weintraub, S. (1978). Keynes, Keynesians, and Monetarists. University of Pennsylvania Press.
• Wray, R. L. (1995). Keynesian Monetary Theory: Liquidity Preference or Black Box Horizontalism. Journal of Economic Issues, 29(1), 273–282.
• Yamak, N., Tanrıöver, B., & Güneysu, F. (2012). Turiz-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Sektör Bazında Bir İnceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(2), 205– 220.
• Yurtkur Koç, A. (2019). Para Arzının İçselliği Hipotezi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz (2006-2018). Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 24, 131–150.
• Zapata, H. O., & Rambaldi, A. N. (1997). Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59(2), 285–289.