The Effect of Seasonal Factors on the Spread and Mortality of COVID-19: Retrospective Multicenter Study

Abstract

Objectives: The impact of seasonal factors on the spread of Coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) is not yet clear. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of seasonal factors on the spread of COVID-19. Methods: This multicenter retrospective study was performed by collecting 284-day COVID-19 data from two university hospitals in a metropolitan center. Correlations between the seasonal parameters of temperature, humidity, wind, and rainfall and the spread of COVID-19 and its clinical outcomes were evaluated using Spearman’s correlation test. Since no linear relationship was determined between variables exhibiting correlation, all models were tested using non-linear curve estimation regression models. The most powerful of the curve estimation regression models, capable of explaining more than 20% of the changes in COVID-19 parameters, was formulated to explain the expected number of events. Results: A total of 24 225 patients were included in the study. The most powerful correlation was between mean daily temperature and daily case numbers (r:-0.643, p<0.00), with case numbers being highest on days when the mean temperature was 7-18℃. Mean temperate was capable of explaining 57% of COVID-19 case numbers (R-Square:0.571, p<0.00), the relationship between them being best explained in the ’S’ curve regression model. The formula ‘’Y=exp(2.07+31.34/x)’’ was obtained for the number of patients expected from the model according to mean temperature. Conclusions: Temperature may be the most effective factor in the spread of COVID-19 and the number of cases may be predicted based on temperature.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• Pandemic
• Temperature
• Humidity
• Fatality Rate

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