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Understanding Strategic Intelligence Analysis: Similarities and Differences with Scientific Research

Year 2023, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 1 - 16, 30.01.2023

Abstract

In strategic intelligence research, as in scientific research, the analyst puts forward and tests hypotheses through methodological approaches to explain certain phenomena and examine real-world problems. After all, the ways of producing knowledge are limited, and the scientific method is the most important of them. So what could separate scientific research from strategic intelligence analysis? This study aims to make strategic intelligence analysis more understandable for the scientific world by revealing the similarities and differences between strategic intelligence analysis and scientific research.

References

  • Ben‐Israel, I. (1989). Philosophy and methodology of intelligence: The logic of estimate process. Intelligence and National Security, 4(3), 660-718.
  • Beşe, E., & Seren, M. (2011). Stratejik İstihbarat Olgusunun Teorik Çerçevesi, Unsurları ve Terörle Mücadele Politikaları Açısından Rolü ve Önemi. Turkish Journal of Police Studies/Polis Bilimleri Dergisi, (13)3, 123-145.
  • Betts, R. K. (2008). Analysis, War, and Decision: Why intelligence failures are inevitable. In Intelligence Theory (ss. 101-125). Routledge.
  • Bruce, J. B. (2008). Making analysis more reliable: Why epistemology matters to intelligence. Analyzing intelligence: Origins, obstacles, and innovations (ss.171-190). Georgetown University Press.
  • CIA. (2010). A Look Back... Sherman Kent: The Father of Intelligence. News and Information. https://www.cia.gov/newsinformation/featured-story-archive/2010-featured-storyarchive/shermankent-the-father-of-intelligence.html [Erişim Tarihi: 09.11.2020].
  • Clark, R. M. (2013). Intelligence analysis: a target-centric approach. CQ press.
  • Clauser, J. (2008). An introduction to intelligence research and analysis. Scarecrow Press. Fingar, T. (2011). Reducing uncertainty: Intelligence analysis and national security. Stanford University Press.
  • Folker, R. D. (2000). Intelligence analysis in theater joint intelligence centers: An experiment in applying structured methods. Joint Military Intelligence College.
  • Garst, R. D., & Gross, M. L. (1997). On becoming an intelligence analyst. Defense Intelligence Journal, 6(2), 47-59.
  • George, R. Z., & Bruce, J. B. (Eds.). (2008). Analyzing intelligence: Origins, obstacles, and innovations. Georgetown University Press.
  • Göktaş, O. (2018). Büyük veya Doğal Arnavutluk İdeali’nin Stratejik İstihbarat Analizi. Doktora Tezi. Polis Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Enstitüsü.
  • Hedley, J. H. (2007). Analysis for strategic intelligence. In Handbook of intelligence studies (ss. 229-244). Routledge.
  • Heuer, R. J. (2019). Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Governmental Needs. In Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence (ss. 1-10). Routledge.
  • Horn, E. (2003). Knowing the enemy: The epistemology of secret intelligence. Grey Room, (11), 58-85.
  • Hudoğlu, M.& Ak, G. Stratejik istihbarat analizinde öngörülebilirliğin doğası: Kaos Teorisi ışığında yeni bir muhakeme denemesi. Florya Chronicles of Political Economy, 8(2), 23-40.
  • Johnson, L. K. (2003). Preface to a theory of strategic intelligence. International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, 16(4), 638-663.
  • Johnson, L. K. (2008). Sketches for a theory of strategic intelligence. In Intelligence Theory (ss. 47-67). Routledge.
  • Karabacak, T. (2002). İstihbarat Biriminin Çalışma Yöntemleri. Avrasya Dosyası, 8(2).
  • Kent, S. (2015). Strategic intelligence for American world policy. Vol. 2377. Princeton University Press.
  • Keynes, J. M. (2013). A treatise on probability. Courier Corporation.
  • Kuosa, T. (2014). Towards strategic intelligence: foresight, intelligence, and policy-making. Dynamic Futures. Marrin, S. (2012a). Improving intelligence analysis: Bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Routledge.
  • Marrin, S. (2012b). Is intelligence analysis an art or a science?. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 25(3), 529-545.
  • Mathams, R. H. (1995). The Intelligence Analyst’s Notebook. Strategic Intelligence: Theory and Application (ss.77-96).
  • United States Army War College. McDowell, D. (2009). Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for Practitioners. Managers, and Users. The Scarecrow Press.
  • Pherson, R. H., & Heuer Jr, R. J. (2020). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. Cq Press.
  • Phythian, M. (2017). Intelligence analysis and social science methods: exploring the potential for and possible limits of mutual learning. Intelligence and National Security, 32(5), 600-612.
  • Platt, W. (1957). Strategic Intelligence production: basic principles. FA Praeger.
  • Prunckun, H. (2010). Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis. Scarecrow Press.
  • Scott, L., & Jackson, P. (2004). The study of intelligence in theory and practice. Intelligence & National Security, 19(2), 139-169.
  • Seren, M. (2017). Stratejik istihbarat ve ulusal güvenlik. Ankara: Orion Publishing.
  • Shulsky, A. N., & Schmitt, G. J. (2002). Silent warfare: understanding the world of intelligence. Potomac Books, Inc.
  • Tuzcu, M.E. (2013). İstihbarat Analizinde Belirsizlik Faktörü ile Çalışma Yöntemleri ve Bilimselliğin Önemi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Harp Akademileri Stratejik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü.
  • Warner, M. (2002). Wanted: A Definition of "Intelligence" Understanding Out Craft. Studies in Intelligence. 46(3), 15-22.
  • Warner, M. (2008). Intelligence as risk shifting. In Intelligence Theory (ss. 30-46). Routledge.
  • Yılmaz, S. (2019). Temel İstihbarat: Toplama, Analiz ve Operasyonlar. Ankara: Kripto Kitaplar.

Stratejik İstihbarat Analizini Anlamak: Bilimsel Araştırma ile Benzerlikleri ve Farkları

Year 2023, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 1 - 16, 30.01.2023

Abstract

Bilimsel araştırmalarda olduğu gibi stratejik istihbarat araştırmasında analist, belli fenomenleri açıklamak ve gerçek dünyadaki sorunları incelemek adına metodolojik yaklaşımlar ile hipotezler ortaya koyar ve bunları test eder. Neticede bilgi üretmenin yolları sınırlıdır, bilimsel yöntem de bunlardan en önemlisidir. Öte yandan stratejik istihbaratın araştırma konuları, büyük ölçüde sosyal bilimlerin kapsamına girer. Öyleyse bilimsel araştırma ile stratejik istihbarat analizini birbirinden ayıran ne olabilir? Bu çalışma, stratejik istihbarat analizinin bilimsel araştırma ile benzerliklerini ve farklarını ortaya koyarak, bilim dünyası için stratejik istihbarat analizini daha anlaşılır hale getirmeyi amaçlamaktadır.

References

  • Ben‐Israel, I. (1989). Philosophy and methodology of intelligence: The logic of estimate process. Intelligence and National Security, 4(3), 660-718.
  • Beşe, E., & Seren, M. (2011). Stratejik İstihbarat Olgusunun Teorik Çerçevesi, Unsurları ve Terörle Mücadele Politikaları Açısından Rolü ve Önemi. Turkish Journal of Police Studies/Polis Bilimleri Dergisi, (13)3, 123-145.
  • Betts, R. K. (2008). Analysis, War, and Decision: Why intelligence failures are inevitable. In Intelligence Theory (ss. 101-125). Routledge.
  • Bruce, J. B. (2008). Making analysis more reliable: Why epistemology matters to intelligence. Analyzing intelligence: Origins, obstacles, and innovations (ss.171-190). Georgetown University Press.
  • CIA. (2010). A Look Back... Sherman Kent: The Father of Intelligence. News and Information. https://www.cia.gov/newsinformation/featured-story-archive/2010-featured-storyarchive/shermankent-the-father-of-intelligence.html [Erişim Tarihi: 09.11.2020].
  • Clark, R. M. (2013). Intelligence analysis: a target-centric approach. CQ press.
  • Clauser, J. (2008). An introduction to intelligence research and analysis. Scarecrow Press. Fingar, T. (2011). Reducing uncertainty: Intelligence analysis and national security. Stanford University Press.
  • Folker, R. D. (2000). Intelligence analysis in theater joint intelligence centers: An experiment in applying structured methods. Joint Military Intelligence College.
  • Garst, R. D., & Gross, M. L. (1997). On becoming an intelligence analyst. Defense Intelligence Journal, 6(2), 47-59.
  • George, R. Z., & Bruce, J. B. (Eds.). (2008). Analyzing intelligence: Origins, obstacles, and innovations. Georgetown University Press.
  • Göktaş, O. (2018). Büyük veya Doğal Arnavutluk İdeali’nin Stratejik İstihbarat Analizi. Doktora Tezi. Polis Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Enstitüsü.
  • Hedley, J. H. (2007). Analysis for strategic intelligence. In Handbook of intelligence studies (ss. 229-244). Routledge.
  • Heuer, R. J. (2019). Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Governmental Needs. In Quantitative Approaches to Political Intelligence (ss. 1-10). Routledge.
  • Horn, E. (2003). Knowing the enemy: The epistemology of secret intelligence. Grey Room, (11), 58-85.
  • Hudoğlu, M.& Ak, G. Stratejik istihbarat analizinde öngörülebilirliğin doğası: Kaos Teorisi ışığında yeni bir muhakeme denemesi. Florya Chronicles of Political Economy, 8(2), 23-40.
  • Johnson, L. K. (2003). Preface to a theory of strategic intelligence. International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, 16(4), 638-663.
  • Johnson, L. K. (2008). Sketches for a theory of strategic intelligence. In Intelligence Theory (ss. 47-67). Routledge.
  • Karabacak, T. (2002). İstihbarat Biriminin Çalışma Yöntemleri. Avrasya Dosyası, 8(2).
  • Kent, S. (2015). Strategic intelligence for American world policy. Vol. 2377. Princeton University Press.
  • Keynes, J. M. (2013). A treatise on probability. Courier Corporation.
  • Kuosa, T. (2014). Towards strategic intelligence: foresight, intelligence, and policy-making. Dynamic Futures. Marrin, S. (2012a). Improving intelligence analysis: Bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Routledge.
  • Marrin, S. (2012b). Is intelligence analysis an art or a science?. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 25(3), 529-545.
  • Mathams, R. H. (1995). The Intelligence Analyst’s Notebook. Strategic Intelligence: Theory and Application (ss.77-96).
  • United States Army War College. McDowell, D. (2009). Strategic Intelligence: A Handbook for Practitioners. Managers, and Users. The Scarecrow Press.
  • Pherson, R. H., & Heuer Jr, R. J. (2020). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. Cq Press.
  • Phythian, M. (2017). Intelligence analysis and social science methods: exploring the potential for and possible limits of mutual learning. Intelligence and National Security, 32(5), 600-612.
  • Platt, W. (1957). Strategic Intelligence production: basic principles. FA Praeger.
  • Prunckun, H. (2010). Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis. Scarecrow Press.
  • Scott, L., & Jackson, P. (2004). The study of intelligence in theory and practice. Intelligence & National Security, 19(2), 139-169.
  • Seren, M. (2017). Stratejik istihbarat ve ulusal güvenlik. Ankara: Orion Publishing.
  • Shulsky, A. N., & Schmitt, G. J. (2002). Silent warfare: understanding the world of intelligence. Potomac Books, Inc.
  • Tuzcu, M.E. (2013). İstihbarat Analizinde Belirsizlik Faktörü ile Çalışma Yöntemleri ve Bilimselliğin Önemi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Harp Akademileri Stratejik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü.
  • Warner, M. (2002). Wanted: A Definition of "Intelligence" Understanding Out Craft. Studies in Intelligence. 46(3), 15-22.
  • Warner, M. (2008). Intelligence as risk shifting. In Intelligence Theory (ss. 30-46). Routledge.
  • Yılmaz, S. (2019). Temel İstihbarat: Toplama, Analiz ve Operasyonlar. Ankara: Kripto Kitaplar.
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Müberra Hudoğlu 0000-0002-8577-8588

Publication Date January 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 2 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Hudoğlu, M. (2023). Stratejik İstihbarat Analizini Anlamak: Bilimsel Araştırma ile Benzerlikleri ve Farkları. İstihbarat Çalışmaları Ve Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(1), 1-16.