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Dijital Çağda İstihbarat Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 39 - 67, 30.01.2023

Abstract

Değişen ve çeşitlenen tehdit iklimi, her alanda yaşanan teknolojik gelişmeler ve önemi gittikçe artan big data-algoritmalar-yapay zekâ vb. yeni analiz yöntemleri, günümüzde istihbarat alanının doğasının ve dönüşümünün dinamiklerindendir. Temel amacı devletlerin güvenliğine yönelik tehditlerin bertaraf edilmesine katkı sağlamak olan istihbarat toplulukları/kurumları, değişen koşullarda yeni risklerle/tehditlerle başa çıkmaya çalışmaktadır. İstihbarat döngüsünün en önemli aşamalarında olan istihbarat analizi de bu yeni konjonktüre göre yeniden şekillenmekte ve bu yeni ortama adapte olmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışma, dijital çağ olarak adlandırabileceğimiz içinde bulunduğumuz dönemde istihbarat analizine odaklanmaktadır. İstihbarat analizinin dönüşümünde etkili olan dinamiklere ve tartışmalara ağırlıklı olarak yer verilen çalışmada, istihbarat analizinde mevcut ve gelecek perspektifler; veri madenciliğinde uzmanlaşma, algoritmalar geliştirme, insan unsurunun dijital yeniliklerle desteklenmesi gibi spesifik konular incelenmiştir.

References

  • Ashwell, M.L. (2017). The digital transformation of intelligence analysis, Journal of Financial Crime, 24(3), ss. 393-411, doi: 10.1108/JFC-032017-0020
  • Biçer, S. (2017). Ulusal güvenlik ve istihbarat sisteminde geleneksel anlayıştan modern ve değişen ihtiyaçlar dönemine geçiş. Karadeniz Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(2), ss. 435-464
  • Böhm, I. ve Lolagar, S. 2021. “Open Source Intelligence: Introduction, Legal, and Ethical Considerations”. International Cybersecurity Law Review, 2(2), 317-37. doi: 10.1365/s43439-021-00042-7.
  • Clark, R. M. (2016). Intelligence analysis: a target-centric approach. CQ Press.
  • Colquhoun, C. (2016). A Brief History of Open Source Intelligence, https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/articles/2016/07/14/a-briefhistory-of-open-source-intelligence/
  • Cooke, N. J. (2015). The Changıng Context And Dynamıcs Of Intellıgence Analysıs, The Human Factors of Intelligence Analysis içinde, Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 59 (1), ss,130-134
  • Coyne, J. (2017). The future of intelligence analysis: computers versus the human brain? The Strategist, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/future-intelligence-analysiscomputers-versus-human-brain/
  • Cukier, K. ve Mayer-Schoenberger, V. (2013). The rise of big data: How it's changing the way we think about the world. Foreign Affairs, 92 (3), ss. 28-40
  • Director of National Intelligence (2015). Vision 2015: A globally networked and integrated intelligence enterprise. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20 Pubs/Vision_2015.pdf
  • Fingar, T. (2011). Reducing uncertainty: Intelligence analysis and national security. Stanford University Press. Gibson, Helen. 2016. “Acquisition and Preparation of Data for OSINT Investigations”, ss. 69-93 içinde Open source intelligence investigation: From Strategy to Implementation, editör B. Akhgar, P. S. Bayerl, ve F. Sampson. New York, NY: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
  • Mark Gilchrist, M. (2017). You can’t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military ‘big data’ challenge, The Strategist, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/cantwrite-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solutionmilitary-big-data-challenge/
  • Gill, P. ve Phythian, M. (2018). Intelligence in an insecure world. Polity Press
  • Glassman, M., and Kang M.J. (2012). Intelligence in the Internet Age: The Emergence and Evolution of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).” Computers in Human Behavior 28(2). 673–82. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.chb.2011.11.014.
  • Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World, Mart 2021, National Intelligence Council https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrend s_2040.pdf
  • Gül, Z. (2014). İstihbarat çeşitleri ve stratejik istihbarat. Harmancı, F.M. v.d. (Ed.). Güvenlik Sektöründe Temel Stratejiler içinde. (ss.83-98). Nobel Yayınları.
  • Hare, N. ve Coghill, P. (2016). The future of the intelligence analysis task, Intelligence and National Security, 31 (6), ss. 858-870
  • Hayden, M. V. (2007). Remarks of central intelligence agency director at the council on foreign relations. New York. https://irp.fas.org/cia/product/dcia090707.html
  • Hedley, J.H. (2007). The challenges of intelligence analysis. Johnson, L. K. (Ed.). Strategic Intelligence: Understanding the hidden side of government içinde. (ss.123-138). Praeger Security International.
  • Janjeva, A., Harris, A., & Byrne, J. (2022). The Future of Open Source Intelligence for UK National Security. RUSI Occasional Paper, https://static.rusi.org/330_OP_FutureOfOpenSourceIntelligence_Final Web0.pdf
  • Johnson, L.K (2007). Introduction. Johnson, L.K. (Ed.) Handbook of Intelligence Studies içinde. Routledge.
  • Johnson, L.K (2010). National Security Intelligence. Johnson, L.K. (Ed.) The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence içinde. Routledge, ss.3-32
  • Kahn, D. (2008). An historical theory of intelligence. Gill, P., Marrin, S. ve Phythian, M. (Ed.). Intelligence Theory Key Questions and Debates içinde. Routledge.
  • Kent, S. (2003). Stratejik istihbarat (Y. Özbek ve N. Şüküroğlu, Çev.) ASAM Yayınları.
  • Krizan, L. (1999). Intelligence essentials for everyone. occasional paper #6, Joint Military Intelligence College. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA476726.pdf
  • Lahneman W. J. (2016). IC data mining in the post-Snowden era, International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence. 29 (4), ss.700-723.
  • Lowenthal, M. M. (2020). Intelligence: From secrets to policy. CQ Press.
  • Mangır, D. Ş. ve Küçükkırlı, S. N. (2019). Gelenekselden dijitale siber istihbarat ve Rus dış politikası. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. Özel Sayı, ssss. 296-308
  • Marrin, S. (2008). Intelligence analysis and decisionmaking, Gill, P., Marrin, S. ve Phythian, M. (Ed.). Intelligence Theory Key Questions and Debates içinde. Routledge.
  • McConnell, J. M. (2007). Remarks and Q&A by the director of national intelligence. Project on National Security Reform Conference (July 26), Washington, DC. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Speeches%20and%2 0Interviews/20070726_speech.pdf
  • McCue, C. (2015). Data mining and predictive analysis: Intelligence gathering and crime analysis. Butterworth-Heinemann.
  • McGlynn, P. ve Garner, G. (2019). Intelligence analysis fundamentals, CRC Press
  • Millî İstihbarat Teşkilâtı (2002). İstihbaratın Tanımı ve İstihbarat Çarkı, Erişim Tarihi: 10.11.2022. https://www.mit.gov.tr/tarihce/giris.html
  • Mueller R. S. (2019). Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election, https://www.justice.gov/archives/sco/file/1373816/download
  • National Research Council (2011). Intelligence analysis for tomorrow: Advances from the behavioral and social sciences. National Academies Press.
  • Omand, D., Miller, C ve Bartlett, J. (2014). “Towards the Discipline of Social Media Intelligence”, ss.24-43 içinde Open Source Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century New Approaches and Opportunities, editör C. Hobbs, M. Moran, ve D. Salisbury
  • Omand, D. (2017). “Social media intelligence (SOCMINT)”. R. Dover, H. Dylan, ve M. S. Goodman (Eds.) ss. 355-71 içinde The Palgrave handbook of security, risk and intelligence içinde, ss. 355-71, editör. London: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Omand, David., Jamie Bartlett, J. ve Miller, C. (2012). “Introducing social media intelligence (SOCMINT)”. Intelligence and National Security, 27 (6), ss.: 801-23. doi: 10.1080/02684527.2012.716965 ss. 24-43
  • Özdağ, Ü. (2014). İstihbarat teorisi, Kripto Kitaplar
  • Pherson, R. H. ve Heuer, R. (2015). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. CQ Press
  • Prunckun, H. (2010). Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis, The Scarecrow Press.
  • Schmidt, M. ve Kathleen, M. V. (2020). “Algorithms that Empower? Platformization in U.S. Intelligence Analysis,” 2020 IEEE International Symposium on Technology and Society (ISTAS) (12-15 November 2020), doi:10.1109/ISTAS50296.2020.
  • Symon, P. B., ve Tarapore, A. (2015). Defense intelligence analysis in the age of big data. Joint Force Quarterly, 79 (4), ss.04-11.
  • U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2017). Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution [and] Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections. Intelligence Community Assessment. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf
  • Urhal, Ö. (2008). Kamu güvenliği açısından istihbarat ve örgütlü suçlar. Adalet Yayınları.
  • Ünver, A. (2018). Dijital Açık Kaynaklı İstihbarat ve Uluslararası Güvenlik, EDAM. https://edam.org.tr/dijital-acik-kaynakli-istihbarat-veuluslararasi-guvenlik/
  • Walsh, P. F. (2011). Intelligence and intelligence analysis. Routledge
  • Warner, M. (2007). Sources and methods for the study of intelligence. Johnson, L.L. (Ed.) Handbook of Intelligence Studies içinde, Routledge
  • Weinbaum, C. ve Shanahan, J.N.T. (2018). Intelligence in a data-driven age, Joint Force Quarterly, 90(3), ss. 4-9
  • Williams, H. J., & Blum, I. (2018). Defining second generation open source intelligence (OSINT) for the defense enterprise. Rand Corporation.
  • Xu Wu, Daguo Qin, Yang Li (2022) Challenges and Inspirations of AI and Related Technologies in Intelligence Analysis, IEEE ITAIC 455
  • Yılmaz, S. (2015). İstihbarat bilimi. Kripto K itaplar. , ss. 45167

Intelligence Analysis in The Digital Era

Year 2023, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 39 - 67, 30.01.2023

Abstract

Today, the world has its own global characteristics due to the threat climate, the size of the data, the variety of actors and the speed of change. Intelligence communities/institutions, whose main purpose is to contribute to the elimination of threats to the security of states and to eliminate uncertainties, are trying to cope with the effects of these factors. As one of the most important stages of the intelligence cycle, intelligence analysis is also reshaped according to these factors. From this point of view, this study focuses on intelligence analysis in the digital age. In this age the importance of open-source intelligence has increased cyber space has created new threats. These factors are considered to be effective in the transformation of intelligence analysis. Thus, intelligence analysis has included algorithms by considering these factors and needs to adapt itself to this period by supporting the human element with digital innovations.

References

  • Ashwell, M.L. (2017). The digital transformation of intelligence analysis, Journal of Financial Crime, 24(3), ss. 393-411, doi: 10.1108/JFC-032017-0020
  • Biçer, S. (2017). Ulusal güvenlik ve istihbarat sisteminde geleneksel anlayıştan modern ve değişen ihtiyaçlar dönemine geçiş. Karadeniz Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(2), ss. 435-464
  • Böhm, I. ve Lolagar, S. 2021. “Open Source Intelligence: Introduction, Legal, and Ethical Considerations”. International Cybersecurity Law Review, 2(2), 317-37. doi: 10.1365/s43439-021-00042-7.
  • Clark, R. M. (2016). Intelligence analysis: a target-centric approach. CQ Press.
  • Colquhoun, C. (2016). A Brief History of Open Source Intelligence, https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/articles/2016/07/14/a-briefhistory-of-open-source-intelligence/
  • Cooke, N. J. (2015). The Changıng Context And Dynamıcs Of Intellıgence Analysıs, The Human Factors of Intelligence Analysis içinde, Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 59 (1), ss,130-134
  • Coyne, J. (2017). The future of intelligence analysis: computers versus the human brain? The Strategist, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/future-intelligence-analysiscomputers-versus-human-brain/
  • Cukier, K. ve Mayer-Schoenberger, V. (2013). The rise of big data: How it's changing the way we think about the world. Foreign Affairs, 92 (3), ss. 28-40
  • Director of National Intelligence (2015). Vision 2015: A globally networked and integrated intelligence enterprise. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20 Pubs/Vision_2015.pdf
  • Fingar, T. (2011). Reducing uncertainty: Intelligence analysis and national security. Stanford University Press. Gibson, Helen. 2016. “Acquisition and Preparation of Data for OSINT Investigations”, ss. 69-93 içinde Open source intelligence investigation: From Strategy to Implementation, editör B. Akhgar, P. S. Bayerl, ve F. Sampson. New York, NY: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
  • Mark Gilchrist, M. (2017). You can’t write an algorithm for uncertainty: why advanced analytics may not be the solution to the military ‘big data’ challenge, The Strategist, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/cantwrite-algorithm-uncertainty-advanced-analytics-may-not-solutionmilitary-big-data-challenge/
  • Gill, P. ve Phythian, M. (2018). Intelligence in an insecure world. Polity Press
  • Glassman, M., and Kang M.J. (2012). Intelligence in the Internet Age: The Emergence and Evolution of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).” Computers in Human Behavior 28(2). 673–82. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.chb.2011.11.014.
  • Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World, Mart 2021, National Intelligence Council https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrend s_2040.pdf
  • Gül, Z. (2014). İstihbarat çeşitleri ve stratejik istihbarat. Harmancı, F.M. v.d. (Ed.). Güvenlik Sektöründe Temel Stratejiler içinde. (ss.83-98). Nobel Yayınları.
  • Hare, N. ve Coghill, P. (2016). The future of the intelligence analysis task, Intelligence and National Security, 31 (6), ss. 858-870
  • Hayden, M. V. (2007). Remarks of central intelligence agency director at the council on foreign relations. New York. https://irp.fas.org/cia/product/dcia090707.html
  • Hedley, J.H. (2007). The challenges of intelligence analysis. Johnson, L. K. (Ed.). Strategic Intelligence: Understanding the hidden side of government içinde. (ss.123-138). Praeger Security International.
  • Janjeva, A., Harris, A., & Byrne, J. (2022). The Future of Open Source Intelligence for UK National Security. RUSI Occasional Paper, https://static.rusi.org/330_OP_FutureOfOpenSourceIntelligence_Final Web0.pdf
  • Johnson, L.K (2007). Introduction. Johnson, L.K. (Ed.) Handbook of Intelligence Studies içinde. Routledge.
  • Johnson, L.K (2010). National Security Intelligence. Johnson, L.K. (Ed.) The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence içinde. Routledge, ss.3-32
  • Kahn, D. (2008). An historical theory of intelligence. Gill, P., Marrin, S. ve Phythian, M. (Ed.). Intelligence Theory Key Questions and Debates içinde. Routledge.
  • Kent, S. (2003). Stratejik istihbarat (Y. Özbek ve N. Şüküroğlu, Çev.) ASAM Yayınları.
  • Krizan, L. (1999). Intelligence essentials for everyone. occasional paper #6, Joint Military Intelligence College. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA476726.pdf
  • Lahneman W. J. (2016). IC data mining in the post-Snowden era, International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence. 29 (4), ss.700-723.
  • Lowenthal, M. M. (2020). Intelligence: From secrets to policy. CQ Press.
  • Mangır, D. Ş. ve Küçükkırlı, S. N. (2019). Gelenekselden dijitale siber istihbarat ve Rus dış politikası. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. Özel Sayı, ssss. 296-308
  • Marrin, S. (2008). Intelligence analysis and decisionmaking, Gill, P., Marrin, S. ve Phythian, M. (Ed.). Intelligence Theory Key Questions and Debates içinde. Routledge.
  • McConnell, J. M. (2007). Remarks and Q&A by the director of national intelligence. Project on National Security Reform Conference (July 26), Washington, DC. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Speeches%20and%2 0Interviews/20070726_speech.pdf
  • McCue, C. (2015). Data mining and predictive analysis: Intelligence gathering and crime analysis. Butterworth-Heinemann.
  • McGlynn, P. ve Garner, G. (2019). Intelligence analysis fundamentals, CRC Press
  • Millî İstihbarat Teşkilâtı (2002). İstihbaratın Tanımı ve İstihbarat Çarkı, Erişim Tarihi: 10.11.2022. https://www.mit.gov.tr/tarihce/giris.html
  • Mueller R. S. (2019). Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election, https://www.justice.gov/archives/sco/file/1373816/download
  • National Research Council (2011). Intelligence analysis for tomorrow: Advances from the behavioral and social sciences. National Academies Press.
  • Omand, D., Miller, C ve Bartlett, J. (2014). “Towards the Discipline of Social Media Intelligence”, ss.24-43 içinde Open Source Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century New Approaches and Opportunities, editör C. Hobbs, M. Moran, ve D. Salisbury
  • Omand, D. (2017). “Social media intelligence (SOCMINT)”. R. Dover, H. Dylan, ve M. S. Goodman (Eds.) ss. 355-71 içinde The Palgrave handbook of security, risk and intelligence içinde, ss. 355-71, editör. London: Palgrave Macmillan
  • Omand, David., Jamie Bartlett, J. ve Miller, C. (2012). “Introducing social media intelligence (SOCMINT)”. Intelligence and National Security, 27 (6), ss.: 801-23. doi: 10.1080/02684527.2012.716965 ss. 24-43
  • Özdağ, Ü. (2014). İstihbarat teorisi, Kripto Kitaplar
  • Pherson, R. H. ve Heuer, R. (2015). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. CQ Press
  • Prunckun, H. (2010). Handbook of scientific methods of inquiry for intelligence analysis, The Scarecrow Press.
  • Schmidt, M. ve Kathleen, M. V. (2020). “Algorithms that Empower? Platformization in U.S. Intelligence Analysis,” 2020 IEEE International Symposium on Technology and Society (ISTAS) (12-15 November 2020), doi:10.1109/ISTAS50296.2020.
  • Symon, P. B., ve Tarapore, A. (2015). Defense intelligence analysis in the age of big data. Joint Force Quarterly, 79 (4), ss.04-11.
  • U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2017). Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution [and] Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections. Intelligence Community Assessment. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf
  • Urhal, Ö. (2008). Kamu güvenliği açısından istihbarat ve örgütlü suçlar. Adalet Yayınları.
  • Ünver, A. (2018). Dijital Açık Kaynaklı İstihbarat ve Uluslararası Güvenlik, EDAM. https://edam.org.tr/dijital-acik-kaynakli-istihbarat-veuluslararasi-guvenlik/
  • Walsh, P. F. (2011). Intelligence and intelligence analysis. Routledge
  • Warner, M. (2007). Sources and methods for the study of intelligence. Johnson, L.L. (Ed.) Handbook of Intelligence Studies içinde, Routledge
  • Weinbaum, C. ve Shanahan, J.N.T. (2018). Intelligence in a data-driven age, Joint Force Quarterly, 90(3), ss. 4-9
  • Williams, H. J., & Blum, I. (2018). Defining second generation open source intelligence (OSINT) for the defense enterprise. Rand Corporation.
  • Xu Wu, Daguo Qin, Yang Li (2022) Challenges and Inspirations of AI and Related Technologies in Intelligence Analysis, IEEE ITAIC 455
  • Yılmaz, S. (2015). İstihbarat bilimi. Kripto K itaplar. , ss. 45167
There are 51 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Muhammed Hayati Taban 0000-0003-1785-9965

Emre Aydilek This is me 0000-0002-4767-2424

Publication Date January 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 2 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Taban, M. H., & Aydilek, E. (2023). Dijital Çağda İstihbarat Analizi. İstihbarat Çalışmaları Ve Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(1), 39-67.