Vietnam’s Policy over South China Sea: Potential for Conflict Escalation?

Abstract

The South China Sea dispute is a major foreign policy issue for Vietnam with regard to its security and economic interests as well as its relations with other regional and major powers. Vietnam’s policy over the SCS creates significant implications for regional stability as Vietnam engages with China and the US. In recent years, it tends to move towards diversification of its diplomatic and military options with other non-claimant states such as Japan, India and Russia. These diversification attempts are also strongly associated with energy security matters. This article argues that potential risk for conflict escalation in the SCS is growing not only because of China’s growing influence in the region but also because of its increasing energy security concerns. In this regard, Vietnam’s concerns over security interests, but particularly energy security concerns, set limits for Vietnam-China cooperation. Thus, the newly adopted energy policy orientation presents potential risks for the future relations between the two countries. It is suggested that there is an urgent need to take certain actions to prevent potential conflict escalation in the SCS in the coming years. 

Keywords

• Vietnam
• South China Sea
• China
• the United States
• policy diversification
• energy security
• conflict escalation

Vietnam’ın Güney Çin Denizi Politikası: Çatışma Tırmanma Potansiyeli

Abstract

Güney Çin Denizi, Vietnam’ın güvenlik ve ekonomik çıkarları ile bölgesel ve büyük güçlerle ilişkileri açısından en önemli dış politika sorunudur. Çin ve ABD ile geliştirdiği ilişkilere bağlı olarak şekillenen Güney Çin Denizi politikası bölgesel istikrar üzerinde önemli etkiler doğurmaktadır. Son yıllarda Vietnam’ın bu politikası Güney Çin Denizi’nde hak iddiasında bulunmayan Japonya, Hindistan ve Rusya gibi devletlerle diplomatik ve askeri tercihlerinin çeşitlendirilmesi istikametinde ilerlemektedir. Bu politika çeşitlendirme çabaları aynı zamanda enerji güvenliği meseleleriyle yakından ilişkilidir. Bu makale çatışma tırmanmasına yönelik potansiyel riskin sadece Çin’in bölgede artan etkinliği sebebiyle değil aynı zamanda Vietnam’ın artan enerji güvenliği kaygıları nedeniyle büyüdüğünü iddia etmektedir. Vietnam’ın güvenlik çıkarlarına dönük kaygıları, ama özellikle enerji güvenliği kaygıları, Vietnam-Çin işbirliğini sınırlandırmaktadır. Dolayısıyla Vietnam’ın son yıllarda izlediği enerji politikaları yönelimi iki ülke arasındaki ilişkilerin geleceği açısından ciddi potansiyel risk oluşturmaktadır. Bu bağlamda önümüzdeki yıllarda Güney Çin Denizi’nde ortaya çıkması muhtemel çatışma tırmanmasını önlemek için acilen gerekli adımların atılması önerilmiştir. 

Keywords

• Vietnam
• Güney Çin Denizi
• Çin
• ABD
• politika çeşitlendirilmesi
• enerji güvenliği
• çatışma tırmanması

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