Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı Bağlamında Avrupa Birliği’nin Enerji Güvenliği: Cezayir Gazı Örneği

Abstract

Dış politika alanına yönelik eğilimlerdeki değişimi anlamak, güç rekabeti yaşanan sahalardaki öncelikleri kavrayabilmek açısından hayati öneme sahiptir. Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı ’da, küresel ekonomi ve güvenlik politikalarının oldukça iç içe geçtiği olaylardan biridir. Bundan dolayı aktörlerin ekonomi veya güvenlik bürokrasisinin karar mekanizmalarına dair öncelik sıralamasının bir hayli zorlu olduğu açıktır. Bu bağlamda Avrupa Birliği’nin de ekonomik ve güvenlik kaygılarının kompakt bir yapıya bürünerek ilerlediği görülmektedir. İlk bakışta Avrupa Birliği-Cezayir ilişkilerinde Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı uzak bir mesele gibi görünse de aksine Savaş’ın sonuçlarının uluslararası politika üzerindeki etkileri küresel piyasalar için önemli ekonomik ve politik çıktılar barındırmaktadır. Küresel ticaret akışlarında yaşanan bozulmalar, petrol fiyatlarındaki öngörülemeyen ani dalgalanmalar, enerji güvenliği bağlamındaki arz kesintisi tehditleri, elektrik fiyatlarındaki yüksek fiyat oynaklığı ile enerji maliyetlerinin önüne geçebilmek için enerjinin tedarikinin çeşitlendirilmesi gereksinimi gibi çıktılar bunlardan bazılarıdır. Rusya ve Ukrayna arasındaki savaşın Avrupa’nın enerji güvenliği üzerindeki etkisi hakkında oldukça fazla çalışma mevcuttur. Ancak bu çalışmalar salt olarak, Avrupa güvenliğine odaklanmakta, Avrupa’ya enerji tedarik eden ikinci bir aktörün motivasyonunu ve kazanımlarını göz ardı etmektedir. Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği-Cezayir ilişkilerinde işbirliği sürecini, karşılıklı bağımlılık yaklaşımı üzerinden ele almaktadır. Karşılıklı bağımlılık yaklaşımı ile amaçlanan, tarafların zorluklar ve çekincelere rağmen karşılıklı olarak motivasyon ve kazanımlarını işbirliği süreci ile nasıl sürdürülebilir hale getirdiklerini ortaya koymaktır. Çünkü Avrupa Birliği’nin güvenliğine Avrupa sınırlarını aşacak ve komşularını da doğrudan ilgilendirecek bir mesele olarak bakmak gerekmektedir. Avrupa Birliği’nin enerji güvenliğine yönelik kaygıları, Cezayir ile ilişkilerini besleyen unsurlardandır. Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı’nın gerek ekonomi-politik gerekse güvenlik etkilerinin Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinin Kuzey Afrika ülkelerine özellikle de Cezayir’e karşı duruşlarını daha net bir çizgiye çekmelerinde önemli bir rolü vardır. Bu bağlamda Rusya-Ukrayna Savaş’ının Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri üzerindeki baskıyı arttırmasının Cezayir ile ilişkilerin seyrine etkisini ve bu çerçevede tarafların enerji sektöründeki girişimlerini incelemektedir.

Keywords

• Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı
• Avrupa Birliği
• Cezayir
• Karşılıklı Bağımlılık
• Enerji Sektörü.

The European Union’s Energy Security in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: The Case of Algerian Gas

Abstract

Understanding shifts in foreign policy trends is of vital importance for grasping the priorities in arenas marked by power competition. The Russia-Ukraine War is one of the events where global economic and security policies are deeply intertwined. As such, it is evident that actors face considerable challenges in prioritizing between economic and security bureaucracies within their decision-making mechanisms. In this context, the European Union’s concerns regarding both economic and security issues appear to be progressing in a tightly integrated and compact manner. At first glance, the Russia-Ukraine War may seem distant from EU-Algeria relations; however, on the contrary, the consequences of the war have significant economic and political implications for global markets and international politics. These implications include disruptions in global trade flows, sudden and unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices, supply interruption risks within the context of energy security, extreme price volatility in electricity markets, and the necessity to diversify energy supply sources in order to mitigate rising energy costs. Although there is extensive literature on the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on Europe’s energy security, most of these studies focus solely on European security while overlooking the motivations and gains of a secondary energy supplier to Europe. This study approaches the EU-Algeria cooperation process through the lens of the interdependence approach. The objective of this perspective is to reveal how, despite various challenges and concerns, both parties have sustained mutual motivations and benefits through their cooperation. It is essential to perceive the security of the European Union not merely as a matter confined within its borders but as an issue directly involving its neighboring regions. The EU’s concerns over energy security are among the key drivers shaping its relations with Algeria. The economic-political and security implications of the Russia-Ukraine War have played a significant role in prompting EU member states to adopt a more defined stance toward North African countries—particularly Algeria. Within this framework, this study examines how the increasing pressure on EU countries caused by the Russia-Ukraine War has influenced the course of their relations with Algeria, with a particular focus on both parties’ initiatives in the energy sector.

Keywords

• Russia-Ukraine War
• European Union
• Algeria
• Interdependence
• Energy Sector

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