CHINA’S INFRASTRUCTURE DIPLOMACY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EXPLAINING ASYMMETRIC BARGAINING WITH FOUR ASEAN COUNTRIES

Abstract

Existing studies on China’s infrastructure investment projects have largely focused on its geopolitical and geoeconomic implications by assuming that China will easily obtain support and cooperation from developing countries. However, asymmetric power capabilities of China do not always imply that it would be able to achieve all desired outcomes at any time. Since China’s infrastructure diplomacy is essentially based on gaining support from developing countries, possibility of strategic misalignment with them and political risks emanated from intensified strategic competition with other great powers create an opportunity for negotiations between China and each host country in itself. Using an analytical framework from the bargaining theory in international relations, this article argues that Southeast Asian countries are able to increase their bargaining leverage vis-a-vis China. The success of China’s infrastructure diplomacy depends on the combination of three factors, such as strategic location, outside option and domestic constraints, affecting political bargaining processes between China and Southeast Asian countries. In this context, the future prospect of regional cooperation is likely to be shaped by the interactions between different development and connectivity plans in Southeast Asia. The increasing China-Japan competition provides economic opportunities but at the same time implies high security risks for individual ASEAN countries.

Keywords

• China,Infrastructure Diplomacy,Southeast Asia,Asymmetric Bargaining,China-Japan Competition

ÇİN’İN GÜNEYDOĞU ASYA’DAKİ ALTYAPI DİPLOMASİSİ: ASİMETRİK PAZARLIĞIN DÖRT ASEAN ÜLKESİ İLE AÇIKLANMASI

Abstract

Çin’in altyapı yatırımı projelerinin jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik etkileri üzerine odaklanan çalışmaların büyük çoğunluğu, gelişmekte olan ülkelerden ihtiyaç duyduğu destek ve işbirliğini Çin’in kolaylıkla elde edebileceğini varsaymaktadır. Ne var ki, Çin’in sahip olduğu asimetrik güç yetenekleri diğer ülkelerle ilişkilerinde her zaman arzu ettiği çıktıları elde edebileceği anlamına gelmez. Çin’in altyapı diplomasisi özünde gelişmekte olan ülkelerden politik destek elde etmeyi amaçladığından, söz konusu ülkelerle ortaya çıkabilecek stratejik uyumsuzluk ihtimali ve diğer büyük güçlerle yaşanan yoğunlaşmış stratejik rekabetten kaynaklanan politik riskler Çin ve ev sahibi ülke arasında yapılacak müzakereler için önemli bir fırsat yaratmaktadır. Bu makalede uluslararası ilişkilerde pazarlık teorisine dayanan analitik bir çerçeve kullanılarak Güneydoğu Asya ülkelerinin, Çin karşısında pazarlık gücünü artırabilecekleri iddia edilmektedir. Çin’in altyapı diplomasisinin başarısı, Çin ve Güneydoğu Asya ülkeleri arasında var olan politik pazarlık süreçlerini etkileyen üç önemli faktör olan stratejik konum, dış seçenek ve içsel kısıtların birleşimine bağlı olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda Güneydoğu Asya bölgesel işbirliğinin geleceğinin birbirinden farklı kalkınma ve bağlantısallık planları arasındaki etkileşimlerle şekillenmesi kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Giderek artan Çin-Japonya rekabeti, bireysel ASEAN ülkeleri için önemli ekonomik fırsatlar sunduğu gibi ciddi güvenlik riskleri de barındırmaktadır.

Keywords

• Çin,Altyapı Diplomasisi,Güneydoğu Asya,Asimetrik Pazarlık,Çin-Japonya rekabeti

References

1. References
2. Ahmad, R. (2017, May 4), “1MDB-Linked Bandar Malaysia Property Deal Falls Through”, The Strait Times.
3. Amos, P., Bullock, D., and Sondhi, J. (2010), High-Speed Rail: The Fast Track to Economic Development?, Beijing, World Bank Office.
4. Andre, P. (2018), “Economic Interdependence and Strategic Thinking in Sino-Japanese Relations: Reconsidering the Amendment of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan”, Asia Focus, IRIS The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, p. 1-31.
5. Asian Development Bank, (2016), Asian Economic Integration Report 2016: What Drives Foreign Direct Investment in Asia and the Pacific?.
6. Baker, C. (2016), “The 2014 Thai Coup and Some Roots of Authoritarianism”, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Volume: 46, Issue: 3, p. 388-404.
7. Bangkok Post, (27 March 2017), “High-Speed Train Project-New Setback Looms for Thai-Sino Rail Project”.
8. Bangkok Post, (25 May 2017), “Thai-Sino High-Speed Rail Work Could Start by August”.

9. Binmore K., Shaked, A., and Sutton J. (1989), “An Outside Option Experiment”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume: 104, Isues: 4, p. 753-770.
10. Carter, J., Diop N., Nair, A., and Sienaert, A. (2016), “Closing Indonesia’s Infrastructure Gap: The Key Role of Fiscal Policy Reforms, World Bank Group, Washington.
11. Chan, D. (2017), “Asymmetric Bargaining between Myanmar and China in the Myitsone Dam Controversy : Social Opposition Akin to David’s Stone Against Goliath”, The Pacific Review, Volume: 30, Issue: 5, p. 674-691.
12. Ciorciari J. (2009), “The Balance of Great-Power Influence in Contemporary Southeast Asia”, International Relations of the Asia Pacific, Volume: 9, Issue: 1, p. 157-196.
13. Ciorciari J. (2010), The Limits of Alignment: Southeast Asia and the Great Powers Since 1975, Washington, Georgetown University Press.
14. Dalpino, C. (2016), “Japan-Southeast Asia Relations: Incremental, But Groundbreaking Steps”, Comparative Connections, Volume: 18, Issue: 1, p. 57-63.
15. Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, (2010), The Comprehensive Asia Development Plan, Japan, http://www.eria.org/publications/the-comprehensive-asia-development-plan/
16. Er, L. (2016), “Myanmar: Japan’s ‘Last Frontier’ in Asia?” Asian Survey, Volume: 56, Issue: 3, p. 512-531.
17. Funablashi, Y., and Ninomiya, A. (2015, 21 June), “Japan Needs to Think Big on Asian Strategy”, East Asia Forum.
18. Goh, E. (2011), “Institutions and the Great Power Bargain in East Asia: ASEAN’s Limited ‘Brokerage’ Role”, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, Volume: 11, p. 373-401.Goh, E. (2014), “The Modes of China’s Influence: Cases from Southeast Asia”, Asian Survey, Volume: 54, Issue: 5, p. 825-848.
19. Goh, E. (2016), “Southeast Asian Strategies toward the Great Powers: Still Hedging After All These Years?”, ASAN Forum, Volume: 4, Issue: 1, p. 18-37.
20. Goh, E. (2018), “ASEAN-Led Multilateralism and Regional Order: The Great Power Bargain Deficit”, International Relations and Asia’s Southern Tier: ASEAN, Australia, and India, Ed: Gilbert Rozman and Joseph Chinyong Liow, Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, p. 45-61.
21. He, K. (2014), “Facing the Challenges: ASEAN’s Institutional Responses to China’s Rise”, Issues and Studies, Volume: 50, Issue: 3, p. 137-168.
22. Herlijanto, J. (2017, 10 February), “How the Indonesian Elite Regards Relations with China”, ISEAS Perspective.
23. Hirschman, A. (1970), Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States, Harvard, Harvard University Press.
24. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, (2019), The State of Southeast Asia: 2019 Survey Report, https://www.iseas.edu.sg/medias/photo-gallery/item/8991-the-state-of-southeast-asia-2019-survey-report
25. Kastner, S. (2014), “Buying Influence? Assessing the Political Effects of China’s International Trade”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 1-28.
26. Katada, S. (2017), “In Pursuit of Stability: Evolution of Asia’s Regional Financial Architecture”, The Pacific Review, Volume: 30, Issue: 6, p. 910-922.
27. Kawashima, S. (2017), “Japan-US-China Relations During the Trump Administration and the Outlook for East Asia”, Asia-Pacific Review, Volume: 24, Issue: 1, p. 23-36.
28. Keohane, R. (1969), “Lilliputians’ Dilemmas: Small States in International Politics, International Organization, Volume: 23, Issue: 2, p. 291-310.
29. Kuik, C. (2016), “How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN States’ Alignment Behavior Towards China”, Journal of Contemporary China, Volume: 25, Issue: 100, p. 500-514.
30. Leverett F., and Wu, B. (2017), “The New Silk Road and China’s Evolving Grand Strategy”, The China Journal, Volume: 77, p. 110-132.
31. Lin, A., and Katada S. (2017), “Regional Order Reconfigured: China, Japan and the United States in the Evolving Asia-Pacific”, Asia Pacific Bulleting, p. 1-2.
32. Long, T. (2016), “Small States, Great Power? Gaining Influence Through Intrinsic, Derivative, and Collective Power”, International Studies Review, Volume: 19, Issue: 2, p. 185-2015.
33. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, (21 May 2015), Partnership for Quality Infrastructure Investment for Asia’s Future.
34. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, (16 July 2016), Japan-Cambodia Summit Meeting.
35. Muthoo, A. (2000), “A Non-Technical Introduction to Bargaining Theory”, World Economics, Volume: 1, Issue: 2, p. 145-164.
36. Nash, J. (1950), “The Bargaining Problem”, Econometrica, Volume: 18, Issue: 2, p. 155-162.
37. Negara, S., and Suryadinata, L. (2018, 4 January), “Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Rail Project: Little Progress, Many Challenges”, ISEAS Perspective.
38. Oh, Y. (2018), “Power Asymmetry and Threat Points: Negotiating China’s Infrastructure Development in Southeast Asia”, Review of International Political Economy, Volume: 25, Issue: 4, p. 530-552.
39. Panke, D. (2012), “Dwarfs in International Negotiations: How Small States Make Their Voices Heard”, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Volume: 25, Issue: 3, p. 313-328.
40. Putnam, R. (1988), “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games”, International Organization, Volume: 42, Issue: 3, p. 427-460.
41. Ravenhill, J. (2010), “The ‘New East Asian Regionalism’: A Political Domino Effect”, Review of International Political Economy, Volume: 17, Issue: 2, p. 178-208.
42. Salim, W., and Negara, S. (2016, 7 April), “Why is the High-Speed Rail Project So Important to Indonesia”, The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
43. Shambaugh, D. (2018), “US-China Rivalry in Southeast Asia: Power Shift or Competitive Coexistence”, International Security, Volume: 42, Issue: 4, p. 85-127.
44. Singh, B., Teo, S., and Ho, B. (2017), “Rising Sino-Japanese Competition: Perspectives from South-East Asian Elites”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, Volume: 71, Issue: 1, p. 105-120.
45. Shoji, T. (2012), “China’s Rise and Japan’s Change Approach to Souteast Asia”, Southeast Asia between China and Japan, Ed: Lam Peng Er and Victor Teo, Newcastle, Cambridge Scholars Publishing.
46. Shukry, A., and Raghu, A. (2019, 19 February), “Malaysia Nears Deal with China to Revive &20 Billion Rail”, Bloomberg.
47. Sim, W. (2016, 17 November), “Japan Promotes Shinkansen High-Speed Rail Link for Malaysia-Singapore”, The Straits Times.
48. Suryadinata, L. (2017), “The Growing ‘Strategic Partnership’ between Indonesia and China Faces Difficult Challenges”, Trends in Souteast Asia, Volume: 15, p. 1-25.
49. Wang, Y. (2014), “China’s Economic Challenges: Grappling with a ‘New Normal’”, Global Asia, Volume: 3, Issue: 4, p. 12-17.
50. Watanabe S. (2015, 1 October), “Failed Indonesian Bullet-Train Bid Highlights Japan’s Weakness”, Nikkei Asian Review.
51. White House, (2017), The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Washinton.
52. Womack, B. (2003), “China and Southeast Asia: Asymmetry, Leadership and Normalcy”, Pacific Affairs, Volume: 76, Issue: 4, p. 529-548.
53. Wongcha-um, P. (2017, 30 March), “Rail Diplomacy Puts Grand Plans for Thailand’s Railway on Track”, Channel News Asia.
54. World Economic Forum,(2016), Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016.
55. Yabushita, N., and Suehiro, A. (2014), “Family Business Groups in Thailand: Coping with Critical Management Points”, Asia Pacific Journal of Managment, Volume: 31, Issue: 4, p. 997-1018.
56. Zhao, H. (2018), “China-Japan Compete for Infrastructure Investment in Southeast Asia: Geopolitical Rivalry or Healthy Competition?”, Journal of Contemporary China, p. 1-17.
57. Zheng, B. (2005), “China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’ to Great Power Status”, Foreign Affairs, Volume: 84, Issue: 5, p. 18-24.