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Year 2020, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 58 - 85, 28.12.2020

Hasan Sezgin Rabia Aktaş

Abstract

When cash flow table data is analyzed in conjunction with other financial statement data; provides important information about the power of the business to meet its financial obligations, liquidity capacity and its change in net assets. The gains are produced on the accrual basis of accounting and are used as a summary measure of operating performance. Researching these sets of information with appropriate models allows future cash flows of businesses to be identified. So which of these two elements give more accurate results in predicting future cash flows? A communiqué issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in 1978 states that accrual-based earnings better predict future cash flows. In this article, FASB’s inference has been tested in our country. In the period 2005-2017, analyses were carried out using OLS Regression on businesses traded in the BIST-XUTUM Index. The findings suggest that accrual-based earnings better predict future cash flows. In addition, the quality of cash flow forecast has decreased as the operating cycle time of businesses increases.

Keywords

Accounting Forecasting Cash-Flow Forecasting

References

  • Ayarlıoğlu, M. A. (2007). Kâr Yönetimi Uygulamaları ve İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda Test Edilmesi, (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), Ankara: Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Baginski, S.P., Lorek, K.S., Willinger, G.L. ve Branson, B.C. (1999). The Relationship between Economic Characteristics and Alternative Annual Earnings Persistence Measures. The Accounting Review, 74, 1: 105–20.
  • Barth, M. E., Cram, D. P. ve Nelson, K. K. (2001). Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows. The Accounting Review, 76(1), 27–58.
  • Bernstein, L. A. (1993). Financial Statement Analysis: Theory, Application, and Interpretation (5. Baskı). Homewood: Irwin.
  • Bliemel, F. (1973). Theil's Forecast Accuracy Coefficient: A Clarification. Journal of Marketing Research, 10(4), 444-446.
  • Bowen, R. M., Burgstahler, D. ve Daley, L. A. (1986). Evidence on the Relationships between Earnings and Various Measures of Cash Flow. The Accounting Review, 61(4), 713–725.
  • Charitou, A., Clubb, C. and Andreou, A. (2001). The Effect of Earnings Permanence,Growth and FirmSize on the Usefulness of Cash Flows in Explaining Security Returns: Empirical Evidence for the UK. Journal of Business Finance&Accounting, 28, 5 ve 6: 563–94.
  • Cheng, C. S. A. ve Hollie, D. (2008). Do Core and Non - Core Cash Flows from Operations Persist Differentially in Predicting Future Cash Flows? Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 31, 29–53.
  • Dechow, P. M. (1994). Accounting Earnings and Cash Flows as Measures of Firm Performance: The Role of Accounting Accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 18(1), 3–42.
  • Dechow, P. M., Kothari, S. P. ve Watts, R. L. (1998). The Relation Between Earnings and Cash Flows. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 25(2), 133-168.
  • Ertugay, E. (2013). Gelecekteki Nakit Akışlarının Tahmininde Nakit Akışlarının ve Tahakkukların Rolü, (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • FASB. (1978). Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 1: Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises.
  • Finger, C. A. (1994). The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and Cash Flow. Journal of Accounting Research, 32(2), 210–223.
  • Greenberg, R. R., Johnson, G. L. ve Ramesh, K. (1986). Earnings versus Cash Flow as a Predictor of Future Cash Flow Measures. Journal of Accounting,Auditing ve Finance, 1, 266–277.
  • Habib, A. (2010). Prediction of operating cash flows: Further evidence from Australia. Australian Accounting Review, 20(2), 134-143.
  • Karğın, M. ve Aktaş, R. (2011). Türkiye Muhasebe Standartlarına Göre Raporlanmış Nakit Akış Tablosu ve Analizi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 1–23.
  • Kısakürek, M. M. (2005). İşletme Faaliyet Nakit Akımlarının Tahmin Edilmesi: İMKB’de Bir Uygulama. (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Ankara: Hacettepe Üniversitesi.
  • Kim, M. ve Kross, W. (2005). The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing - Not Decreasing. Journal of Accounting Research, 43(5), 753–780.
  • Krishnan, G. V. ve Largay III, J. A. (2000). The Predictive Ability of Direct Method Cash Flow Information. Journal of Business Finance ve Accounting, 27(2), 215–245.
  • Lorek, K. S. ve Willinger, G. L. (1996). A Multivariate Time-Series Prediction Model for Cash-Flow Data. The Accounting Review, 71(1), 81–102.
  • Lorek, K. S. ve Willinger, G. L. (2009). New Evidence Pertaining to the Prediction of Operating Cash Flows. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 32(1), 1-15.
  • McBeth, K. H. (1993). Forecasting Operating Cash Flow: Evidence on the Comparative Predictive Abilities of Net Income and Operating Cash Flow from Actual Cash Flow Data. The Mid - Atlantic Journal of Business, 29(2), 173–187.
  • Murdoch, B. ve Krause, P. (1989). An Empirical Investigation of The Predictive Power of Accrual and Cash Flow Data in Forcasting Operating Cash Flow. Akron Business and Economic Review, 20(3), 100–113.
  • Rayburn, J. (1986). The Association of Operating Cash Flow and Accruals with Security Returns. Journal of Accounting Research, 24, 112–133.
  • Riahi-Belkaoui, A. (2004). Accounting Theory (5. Baskı). Singapore: Thomson Learning.
  • Takhtaei, N. ve Karimi, H. (2013). Relative ability of earnings data and cash flow in predicting future cash flows. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 3(1), 214.
  • Temiz, H., ve Acar, M. (2018). Gelecek Dönem Nakit Akışı Tahmininde Dönem Kârı ve Nakit Akışı Karşılaştırması. Muhasebe ve Denetime Bakış, Accounting & Auditing Review, 18(54), 113-124.
  • Theil, H. (1966). Applied Economic Forecasting. Amsterdam North Holland.
  • TMS/TFRS. (2005). Türkiye Muhasebe Standardı 7 - Nakit Akış Tabloları. Ankara: Kamu Gözetimi Kurumu.
  • Waldron, M. A. ve Jordan, C. E. (2010). The Comparative Predictive Abilities of Accrual Earnings and Cash Flows in Periods of Economic Turbulence: The Case of the IT Bubble. Journal of Applied Business Research, 26(1), 85–97.
  • Yalkın, Y. K. (2008). Genel Muhasebe İlkeler ve Uygulamalar (16. Baskı). Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.

GELECEKTEKİ NAKİT AKIŞLARINI TAHMİN ETMEDE TAHAKKUK VE NAKİT AKIŞ BAZLI MODEL TERCİHİ

Year 2020, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 58 - 85, 28.12.2020

Hasan Sezgin Rabia Aktaş

Abstract

Nakit akış tablosu verileri, diğer finansal tablo verileri ile birlikte analiz edildiğinde; işletmenin mali yükümlülüklerini yerine getirme gücü, likidite kapasitesi ve net aktiflerindeki değişimi hakkında önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır. Kazançlar ise, muhasebenin tahakkuk temelinde üretilir ve işletme performansının özet bir ölçütü olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu bilgi setlerinin uygun modeller ile araştırılması işletmelerin gelecekteki nakit akışlarının tespit edilmesine imkân vermektedir. Peki gelecekteki nakit akışları tahmin etmede bu iki unsurdan hangisini kullanmak daha doğru sonuçlar verir? Finansal Muhasebe Standartları Kurulu’nun (FASB) 1978 yılında yayınladığı bir tebliğde, tahakkuk bazlı kazançların gelecek nakit akışlarını daha iyi tahmin ettiği ifade edilmektedir. Bu makalede FASB’ın önermesinin ülkemizde geçerliliği test edilmiştir. 2005-2017 döneminde BIST-XUTUM Endeksinde işlem gören işletmeler üzerinde OLS Regresyonu kullanılarak analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, tahakkuk bazlı kazançların gelecekteki nakit akışları daha iyi tahmin ettiğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca işletmelerin faaliyet döngü süresi arttıkça nakit akış tahmin kalitesinin düştüğü görülmüştür.

Keywords

Muhasebe Tahmin Nakit Akış Tahmini

References

  • Ayarlıoğlu, M. A. (2007). Kâr Yönetimi Uygulamaları ve İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’nda Test Edilmesi, (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), Ankara: Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Baginski, S.P., Lorek, K.S., Willinger, G.L. ve Branson, B.C. (1999). The Relationship between Economic Characteristics and Alternative Annual Earnings Persistence Measures. The Accounting Review, 74, 1: 105–20.
  • Barth, M. E., Cram, D. P. ve Nelson, K. K. (2001). Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows. The Accounting Review, 76(1), 27–58.
  • Bernstein, L. A. (1993). Financial Statement Analysis: Theory, Application, and Interpretation (5. Baskı). Homewood: Irwin.
  • Bliemel, F. (1973). Theil's Forecast Accuracy Coefficient: A Clarification. Journal of Marketing Research, 10(4), 444-446.
  • Bowen, R. M., Burgstahler, D. ve Daley, L. A. (1986). Evidence on the Relationships between Earnings and Various Measures of Cash Flow. The Accounting Review, 61(4), 713–725.
  • Charitou, A., Clubb, C. and Andreou, A. (2001). The Effect of Earnings Permanence,Growth and FirmSize on the Usefulness of Cash Flows in Explaining Security Returns: Empirical Evidence for the UK. Journal of Business Finance&Accounting, 28, 5 ve 6: 563–94.
  • Cheng, C. S. A. ve Hollie, D. (2008). Do Core and Non - Core Cash Flows from Operations Persist Differentially in Predicting Future Cash Flows? Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 31, 29–53.
  • Dechow, P. M. (1994). Accounting Earnings and Cash Flows as Measures of Firm Performance: The Role of Accounting Accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 18(1), 3–42.
  • Dechow, P. M., Kothari, S. P. ve Watts, R. L. (1998). The Relation Between Earnings and Cash Flows. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 25(2), 133-168.
  • Ertugay, E. (2013). Gelecekteki Nakit Akışlarının Tahmininde Nakit Akışlarının ve Tahakkukların Rolü, (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • FASB. (1978). Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 1: Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises.
  • Finger, C. A. (1994). The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and Cash Flow. Journal of Accounting Research, 32(2), 210–223.
  • Greenberg, R. R., Johnson, G. L. ve Ramesh, K. (1986). Earnings versus Cash Flow as a Predictor of Future Cash Flow Measures. Journal of Accounting,Auditing ve Finance, 1, 266–277.
  • Habib, A. (2010). Prediction of operating cash flows: Further evidence from Australia. Australian Accounting Review, 20(2), 134-143.
  • Karğın, M. ve Aktaş, R. (2011). Türkiye Muhasebe Standartlarına Göre Raporlanmış Nakit Akış Tablosu ve Analizi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 1–23.
  • Kısakürek, M. M. (2005). İşletme Faaliyet Nakit Akımlarının Tahmin Edilmesi: İMKB’de Bir Uygulama. (Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi). Ankara: Hacettepe Üniversitesi.
  • Kim, M. ve Kross, W. (2005). The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing - Not Decreasing. Journal of Accounting Research, 43(5), 753–780.
  • Krishnan, G. V. ve Largay III, J. A. (2000). The Predictive Ability of Direct Method Cash Flow Information. Journal of Business Finance ve Accounting, 27(2), 215–245.
  • Lorek, K. S. ve Willinger, G. L. (1996). A Multivariate Time-Series Prediction Model for Cash-Flow Data. The Accounting Review, 71(1), 81–102.
  • Lorek, K. S. ve Willinger, G. L. (2009). New Evidence Pertaining to the Prediction of Operating Cash Flows. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 32(1), 1-15.
  • McBeth, K. H. (1993). Forecasting Operating Cash Flow: Evidence on the Comparative Predictive Abilities of Net Income and Operating Cash Flow from Actual Cash Flow Data. The Mid - Atlantic Journal of Business, 29(2), 173–187.
  • Murdoch, B. ve Krause, P. (1989). An Empirical Investigation of The Predictive Power of Accrual and Cash Flow Data in Forcasting Operating Cash Flow. Akron Business and Economic Review, 20(3), 100–113.
  • Rayburn, J. (1986). The Association of Operating Cash Flow and Accruals with Security Returns. Journal of Accounting Research, 24, 112–133.
  • Riahi-Belkaoui, A. (2004). Accounting Theory (5. Baskı). Singapore: Thomson Learning.
  • Takhtaei, N. ve Karimi, H. (2013). Relative ability of earnings data and cash flow in predicting future cash flows. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 3(1), 214.
  • Temiz, H., ve Acar, M. (2018). Gelecek Dönem Nakit Akışı Tahmininde Dönem Kârı ve Nakit Akışı Karşılaştırması. Muhasebe ve Denetime Bakış, Accounting & Auditing Review, 18(54), 113-124.
  • Theil, H. (1966). Applied Economic Forecasting. Amsterdam North Holland.
  • TMS/TFRS. (2005). Türkiye Muhasebe Standardı 7 - Nakit Akış Tabloları. Ankara: Kamu Gözetimi Kurumu.
  • Waldron, M. A. ve Jordan, C. E. (2010). The Comparative Predictive Abilities of Accrual Earnings and Cash Flows in Periods of Economic Turbulence: The Case of the IT Bubble. Journal of Applied Business Research, 26(1), 85–97.
  • Yalkın, Y. K. (2008). Genel Muhasebe İlkeler ve Uygulamalar (16. Baskı). Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hasan Sezgin 0000-0001-9110-6801

Rabia Aktaş 0000-0002-7006-5235

Publication Date December 28, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 3 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Sezgin, H., & Aktaş, R. (2020). GELECEKTEKİ NAKİT AKIŞLARINI TAHMİN ETMEDE TAHAKKUK VE NAKİT AKIŞ BAZLI MODEL TERCİHİ. Izmir Democracy University Social Sciences Journal, 3(2), 58-85.
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