Determinants of Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Panel Data Analysis for the Period 1990–2023

Abstract

This study examines the effects of physical capital, financial development, workers remittances, labor and population growth on economic growth in 18 Sub-Saharan African countries. The analysis period consists of annual data from 1990 to 2023. The AMG estimator was used as the main estimator, while the CCEMG estimator was utilized as the control estimator. Additionally, the causal relationship between the variables and economic growth, as well as the direction of causality, was examined. The causal relationship was analyzed using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) test. The CCEMG estimator produces results at both the panel and cross-sectional levels. In this context, it was observed that the findings differed significantly at both the panel and individual level. It is noteworthy that physical capital and labor are the most influential variables on growth across the countries. This suggests that policies to be implemented should be tailored to the specific characteristics of each country. The findings of the causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between growth and physical capital and population growth.

Keywords

• Physical capital
• economic growth
• financial development
• remittances
• population growth
• labor

Sahra Altı Afrika Ülkelerinde Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicileri: 1990–2023 Dönemi Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Sahra Altı Afrika’daki 18 ülkede fiziksel sermaye, finansal kalkınma, işçi havaleleri, işgücü ve nüfus artışının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Analiz dönemi, 1990–2023 yıllarına ait yıllık verilerden oluşmaktadır. Çalışmada ana tahminleyici olarak AMG tahminleyicisi, kontrol tahminleyicisi olarak ise CCEMG tahminleyicisi kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca değişkenler ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ve nedenselliğin yönü incelenmiştir. Nedensellik analizi Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) testi kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. CCEMG tahminleyicisi hem panel hem de ülke düzeyinde sonuçlar üretmektedir. Bu bağlamda, bulguların panel ve ülke düzeyinde önemli farklılıklar gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Fiziksel sermaye ve işgücünün ülkeler genelinde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde en etkili değişkenler olduğu dikkat çekmektedir. Bu durum, uygulanacak politikaların ülkelerin kendine özgü yapısal özelliklerine göre şekillendirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir. Nedensellik testi sonuçları ise ekonomik büyüme ile fiziksel sermaye ve nüfus artışı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Fiziksel sermaye
• ekonomik büyüme
• finansal gelişme
• işçi döviz havaleleri
• nüfus artışı
• emek

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