How Do ICT Indicators Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on economic growth in a sample of 10 developing countries (Chile, Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Philippines, Thailand, Tunisia, and Türkiye) during the period 2003-2023. In addition to labor and capital, which are primary factors of production in the traditional growth model, mobile cellular subscriptions, individuals using the internet, landline telephone subscriptions, and fixed broadband subscriptions were used to represent ICT. After identifying problems of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, and cross-sectional dependence in the model, the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimator, which yields effective results under these conditions, was chosen. Furthermore, the causal relationship between the selected variables and economic growth was investigated using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin test. Mobile cellular subscriptions negatively affect economic growth, while fixed telephone subscriptions, internet usage, and fixed broadband have positive effects. However, it was determined that the effects of ICT components differed in magnitude, and it was concluded that the strongest effect on economic growth stemmed from communication systems based on fixed telephone subscriptions. Labor and capital also contribute positively to growth. Causality analysis reveals a bidirectional relationship only between labor and growth, while unidirectional causality runs from fixed telephone subscriptions, internet usage, fixed broadband, and capital to economic growth, and from growth to mobile subscriptions. Overall, the study shows that the quality of digital infrastructure is a significant determinant of economic performance in developing countries.

Keywords

• Information and Communication Technologies
• Economic Growth
• Developing Countries
• FGLS

BİT Göstergeleri Ekonomik Büyümeyi Nasıl Etkiler? Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerden Ampirik Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2003-2023 dönemi boyunca 10 gelişmekte olan ülke (Şili, Mısır, Endonezya, Malezya, Meksika, Fas, Filipinler, Tayland, Tunus ve Türkiye) örnekleminde Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin (BİT) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Geleneksel büyüme modelinde birincil üretim faktörleri olan emek ve sermayeye ek olarak, BİT'i temsil etmek için mobil telefon abonelikleri, internet kullanan bireyler, sabit hat telefon abonelikleri ve sabit geniş bant abonelikleri kullanılmıştır. Modelde otokorelasyon, heteroskedastisite ve kesitsel bağımlılık sorunları tespit edildikten sonra, bu koşullar altında etkili sonuçlar veren Uygulanabilir Genelleştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler (FGLS) tahmincisi seçilmiştir. Ayrıca, seçilen değişkenler ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensel ilişki Dumitrescu-Hurlin testi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Mobil telefon abonelikleri ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilerken, sabit hat telefon abonelikleri, internet kullanımı ve sabit geniş bant olumlu etkilere sahiptir. Ancak, BİT bileşenlerinin etkilerinin büyüklük bakımından farklılık gösterdiği belirlenmiş ve ekonomik büyümeye en güçlü etkinin sabit telefon aboneliklerine dayalı iletişim sistemlerinden kaynaklandığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Emek ve sermaye de büyümeye olumlu katkıda bulunmaktadır. Nedensellik analizi, yalnızca emek ve büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koyarken, tek yönlü nedensellik sabit telefon aboneliklerinden, internet kullanımından, sabit geniş banttan ve sermayeden ekonomik büyümeye ve büyümeden mobil aboneliklere doğru ilerlemektedir. Genel olarak, çalışma, dijital altyapının kalitesinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ekonomik performansın önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler
• FGLS

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