Research Article
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Year 2020, , 98 - 111, 23.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.754989

Abstract

References

  • Altınay, G. (2007). Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Import Demand for Crude Oil in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5829-5835.
  • BP: British Petroleum. (2019). Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. Retrieved on 15 January 2020 from https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
  • Capistrano, A. D. and Kiker, C. F. (1995). Macro-Scale Economic Influences on Tropical Forest Depletion. Ecological Economics, 14(1), 21-29.
  • Dash, D. P., Sethi, N. and Bal, D. P. (2018). Is the Demand for Crude Oil Inelastic for India? Evidence from Structural VAR Analysis. Energy Policy, 118, 552-558.
  • Fatima, T., Xia, E. and Ahad, M. (2019). Oil Demand Forecasting for China: A Fresh Evidence from Structural Time Series Analysis. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 21(3), 1205-1224.
  • Ghosh, S. (2009). Import Demand of Crude Oil and Economic Growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37(2), 699-702.
  • Görüs, M. S., Özgür, Ö. and Develi, A. (2019). The Relationship between Oil Prices, Oil Imports and Income Level in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier Approximation. OPEC Energy Review, 43(3), 327-341.
  • Harvey, A. C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • Hunt, L. C., Judge, G. and Ninomiya, Y. (2000). Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand. Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper SEEDS, No: 99.
  • Hunt, L. C., Judge, G. and Ninomiya, Y. (2003a). Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends, Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper, No. 105, 1-40. Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
  • Hunt, L.C., Judge, G. and Ninomiya, Y. (2003b). Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demand: A Sectoral Analysis. Energy Economics, 25(1), 93-118.
  • Jebran, K., Abdullah, Elhabbaq, M. M. and Ali, A. (2017). Income and Price Elasticities of Crude Oil Demand in Pakistan. Global Business Review, 18(6), 1373-1383.
  • McMahon, T. (2017). Historical Crude Oil Prices, Inflation Data, Retrieved on 20 February 2020 from https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp.
  • MENR. (2018). Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources - Energy Balance Sheets (in Turkish translated by author). Retrieved on 5 March 2020 from http://www.eigm.gov.tr/tr-TR/Denge-Tablolari/Denge-Tablolari.
  • Öztürk, İ., and Arısoy, İ. (2016). An Estimation of Crude Oil Import Demand in Turkey: Evidence from Time-Varying Parameters Approach. Energy Policy, 99, 174-179.
  • Sa’ad, S. (2011). Underlying Energy Demand Trends in South Korean and Indonesian Aggregate Whole Economy and Residential Sectors. Energy Policy, 39(1), 40-46.
  • Sadorsky, P. (1999). Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Activity. Energy Economics, 21(5), 449-469.
  • Solak, A. O. and Beşkaya, A. (2013). Türkiye’nin Net Petrol İthalatının Fiyat ve Gelir Esneklikleri: ARDL Modelleme Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi. [Price and Income Elasticities of Net Oil Imports in Turkey: An ARDL Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis]. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 9(18), 19-29.
  • Yapraklı, S. and Kaplan, F. (2015). Re-Examining of the Turkish Crude Oil Import Demand with Multi-Structural Breaks Analysis in the Long-Run Period. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(2), 402-407.
  • World Bank. (2019). World Development Indicators. Retrieved on 15 January 2020 from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&country=TUR.
  • Ziramba, E. (2010). Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand in South Africa: A Cointegration Analysis. Energy Policy, 38(12), 7844-7849.

Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey

Year 2020, , 98 - 111, 23.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.754989

Abstract

In this study, the price and income elasticities of Turkey’s imported crude oil demand are analysed. For this purpose, annual time series data covering the period 1970-2018 are preferred for imported crude oil, real price for crude oil and real GDP. As known, Turkey is an energy dependent country especially in fossil fuels. Therefore, estimating Turkey’s crude oil demand equations is very significant to analyse the consumption trend and the future expectations in terms of this energy resource. This study employs Harvey’s Structural Time Series Modelling Method (STSM) with the underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) concept for determining the relations among income, price and crude oil import demand. The empirical results show that the income and price elasticities of crude oil demand in Turkey are 0.66 and -0.11, respectively. The estimated elasticities suggest that income and price elasticities for the imported crude oil demand are inelastic.

References

  • Altınay, G. (2007). Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Import Demand for Crude Oil in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5829-5835.
  • BP: British Petroleum. (2019). Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. Retrieved on 15 January 2020 from https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
  • Capistrano, A. D. and Kiker, C. F. (1995). Macro-Scale Economic Influences on Tropical Forest Depletion. Ecological Economics, 14(1), 21-29.
  • Dash, D. P., Sethi, N. and Bal, D. P. (2018). Is the Demand for Crude Oil Inelastic for India? Evidence from Structural VAR Analysis. Energy Policy, 118, 552-558.
  • Fatima, T., Xia, E. and Ahad, M. (2019). Oil Demand Forecasting for China: A Fresh Evidence from Structural Time Series Analysis. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 21(3), 1205-1224.
  • Ghosh, S. (2009). Import Demand of Crude Oil and Economic Growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37(2), 699-702.
  • Görüs, M. S., Özgür, Ö. and Develi, A. (2019). The Relationship between Oil Prices, Oil Imports and Income Level in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier Approximation. OPEC Energy Review, 43(3), 327-341.
  • Harvey, A. C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • Hunt, L. C., Judge, G. and Ninomiya, Y. (2000). Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand. Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper SEEDS, No: 99.
  • Hunt, L. C., Judge, G. and Ninomiya, Y. (2003a). Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends, Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper, No. 105, 1-40. Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
  • Hunt, L.C., Judge, G. and Ninomiya, Y. (2003b). Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demand: A Sectoral Analysis. Energy Economics, 25(1), 93-118.
  • Jebran, K., Abdullah, Elhabbaq, M. M. and Ali, A. (2017). Income and Price Elasticities of Crude Oil Demand in Pakistan. Global Business Review, 18(6), 1373-1383.
  • McMahon, T. (2017). Historical Crude Oil Prices, Inflation Data, Retrieved on 20 February 2020 from https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp.
  • MENR. (2018). Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources - Energy Balance Sheets (in Turkish translated by author). Retrieved on 5 March 2020 from http://www.eigm.gov.tr/tr-TR/Denge-Tablolari/Denge-Tablolari.
  • Öztürk, İ., and Arısoy, İ. (2016). An Estimation of Crude Oil Import Demand in Turkey: Evidence from Time-Varying Parameters Approach. Energy Policy, 99, 174-179.
  • Sa’ad, S. (2011). Underlying Energy Demand Trends in South Korean and Indonesian Aggregate Whole Economy and Residential Sectors. Energy Policy, 39(1), 40-46.
  • Sadorsky, P. (1999). Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Activity. Energy Economics, 21(5), 449-469.
  • Solak, A. O. and Beşkaya, A. (2013). Türkiye’nin Net Petrol İthalatının Fiyat ve Gelir Esneklikleri: ARDL Modelleme Yaklaşımı ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi. [Price and Income Elasticities of Net Oil Imports in Turkey: An ARDL Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis]. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 9(18), 19-29.
  • Yapraklı, S. and Kaplan, F. (2015). Re-Examining of the Turkish Crude Oil Import Demand with Multi-Structural Breaks Analysis in the Long-Run Period. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(2), 402-407.
  • World Bank. (2019). World Development Indicators. Retrieved on 15 January 2020 from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&country=TUR.
  • Ziramba, E. (2010). Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand in South Africa: A Cointegration Analysis. Energy Policy, 38(12), 7844-7849.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

İsmail Kavaz 0000-0002-3044-795X

Publication Date October 23, 2020
Submission Date June 19, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020

Cite

APA Kavaz, İ. (2020). Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey. International Econometric Review, 12(2), 98-111. https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.754989
AMA Kavaz İ. Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey. IER. October 2020;12(2):98-111. doi:10.33818/ier.754989
Chicago Kavaz, İsmail. “Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey”. International Econometric Review 12, no. 2 (October 2020): 98-111. https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.754989.
EndNote Kavaz İ (October 1, 2020) Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey. International Econometric Review 12 2 98–111.
IEEE İ. Kavaz, “Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey”, IER, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 98–111, 2020, doi: 10.33818/ier.754989.
ISNAD Kavaz, İsmail. “Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey”. International Econometric Review 12/2 (October 2020), 98-111. https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.754989.
JAMA Kavaz İ. Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey. IER. 2020;12:98–111.
MLA Kavaz, İsmail. “Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey”. International Econometric Review, vol. 12, no. 2, 2020, pp. 98-111, doi:10.33818/ier.754989.
Vancouver Kavaz İ. Estimating the Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand for Turkey. IER. 2020;12(2):98-111.