Ticari Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Değerlendirilmesi: Gambiya Örneği

Öz

Küreselleşme süreci ile birlikte, ülkeler ticaretlerini serbestleştirmek suretiyle dış dünyaya açılmış ve böylece ekonomik büyümelerini önemli ölçüde etkileme olanağına kavuşmuşlardır. Çünkü dışa açılan ülkeler, bu sayede mal ve hizmetlerini, bilgilerini, sermayelerini sınırlar boyunca küçük kısıtlamalarla kolayca hareket ettirebilmektedirler. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Gambiya’da ticari dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Çalışma kapsamında, Gambiya ekonomisinin 1966-2017 dönemine ilişkin çeşitli değerlendirmelerde bulunulmuştur. Analiz için Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller Testi ADF , Phillips Peron PP Birim Kök Testleri ile Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme Modeli ARDL kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, milli gelirin tüketim harcaması, sabit sermaye oluşumu ve kamu harcaması değişkenleri ile uzun dönemli bir ilişki içerisinde olduğunu göstermektedir. Tüketim harcaması, sabit sermaye oluşumu ve kamu harcaması değişkenleri sırası ile milli gelir üzerinde 0.80, 0.25 ve 0.22 oranında pozitif yönlü bir etki yapmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında Gambiya’nın milli gelirinin, diğer değişkenlerle kıyaslandığından en fazla tüketim harcamasından etkilendiği sonucuna varılır. Ancak ticari açıklık değişkeni ile milli gelir arasında uzun dönemde anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Gambiya Ekonomisi, ARDL Modeli.

Assessment of the Relationship Between Commercial Gap and Economic Growth: The Case of Gambia

Öz

With the globalization process, countries opened up to the outside world by liberalizing their trade and thus had the opportunity to significantly affect their economic growth. This is because the countries that are opened to the outside can easily move their goods, services, knowledge and capital along the borders with little restrictions. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Gambia. Within the scope of the study, various evaluations have been made regarding the 1966-2017 period of the Gambian economy. Extended Dickey-Fuller Test ADF , Phillips Peron PP Unit Root Tests and Autoregressive Distributed Delay Model ARDL were used for analysis. The findings show that national income has a long-term relationship with consumption expenditure, fixed capital formation and public expenditure variables. Consumption expenditure, fixed capital formation and public expenditure variables have a positive effect on national income by 0.80, 0.25 and 0.22, respectively. In this study, it is concluded that Gambia's national income is most affected by consumption expenditure compared to other variables. However, no significant relationship was found between the commercial openness variable and national income in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade Openness, Economic Growth, Gambian Economy, ARDL Model.

Kaynakça

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