Uluslararası Ticaret ve İşletmecilik Bağlamında COVID-19 Pandemisi: Küresel ve Ulusal Öngörüler

Year 2020, Issue: EK SAYI (2020), 145 - 168, 01.10.2020

Ömer Faruk Derindağ Hüseyin Altay

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemisi 1929 Dünya ekonomik buhranından beri ya-şanmış ekonomik kriz ve darboğazlardan gerek oluşturduğu ekono-mik küçülmenin boyutu gerekse ortaya çıkış ve yayılış şekli açısından benzersiz ve çok boyutlu sağlıksal, ekonomik, ticari bir bozulmaya neden olmuştur. Küresel ekonomik göstergelerin seyri ve tahmini anlamında aşırı bir belirsizlik ortamı söz konusudur. Bu belirsizlik, arz ve talebin dengeye kavuşup kavuşmadığı, parasal genişlemenin etkin sonuçlar doğurup doğurmadığı, tüketici ve üreteci güveninin yeniden tesis edilip edilmediği ve daha birçok değişkenin birlikte düzelme eğilimi içine girme ihtimalin daha zayıf görülmesinden dolayı olumsuz senaryoların daha baskın ve muhtemel bir görünüm kazanmasına neden olmaktadır. COVID-19’un etki analizlerinin lite-ratürde az sayıda çalışma ile yapıldığı ve geleceğe dönük öngörü ve önerilere daha da az yer verildiği görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada özel-likle ekonomik ve ticari anlamda tüm bu olasılıklar farklı yönleriyle değerlendirilmiş ve önerilere etraflıca yer verilerek kamu otoritesi, şirketler ve uluslararası ticaret profesyonelleri nezdinde farkındalık yaratılmaya çalışılmıştır.

Keywords

COVID–19, Uluslararası Ticaret, Ekonomi

COVID-19 Pandemic in the Context of International Trade and Business: Global & National Insights

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a unique and multidimensional health, economic, commercial contraction since the world economic crisis of 1929, both in the context of the economic downturn caused by the economic crisis and bottlenecks, and the way it emerged and spread. There is an economic climate of extreme uncertainty in terms of the monitoring the inclinations and estimating of global economic indicators. This uncertainty triggers negative scenarios to appear more dominant and likely according to perceived probabilities of whether supply and demand are in balance, whether quantitative easing has effective results, whether consumer and producer confi-dence has been re-established, and the likelihood of many other vari-ables getting better together. It is reviewed that a small number of studies in literature conducted addressing the impact analyzes of COVID-19, and there is even less investigation for future predictions and suggestions. In this study, all these possibilities, especially in economic and commercial terms, were evaluated from different as-pects and the suggestions were included in detail to raise awareness among the public authorities, companies, and international trade professionals

Keywords

COVID–19, International Trade, Economy

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