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Brexit Kararının İhracat Yakınsama Modeliyle Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2021, Issue: 26, 555 - 569, 30.04.2021

Abstract

Devletler, İkinci Dünya Savaşı’nın ardından ekonomik iş birliklerinin etkinliğini artırmak adına ekonomik entegrasyonlara üye olmaya başladılar. Teorik olarak tarafların karşılıklı çıkarlarını önceleyen ekonomik entegrasyonlardan üye ülkelerin özellikle ihracatlarına katkı sağlaması beklenmektedir. Buna bağlı olarak yazında genellikle kişi başına düşen gelir üzerinden yapılan yakınsama modeli, bu çalışmada ülkelerin ihracatları üzerinden gerçekleştirilmektedir. Çalışmanın temel amacı, 2016 yılında alınan “Britain Exit” BREXIT kararının Avrupa Birliği AB özelinde ihracat yakınsaması modeli yardımıyla desteklenip desteklenmediğini ortaya koymaktır. Bu bağlamda AB anlaşması öncesi ve sonrası dönemde AB-15 ve birliğin en kapsamlı genişlemesi 2004 sonrası AB-25 ülkeleri, ihracat yakınsaması açısından incelenmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar dahilinde AB anlaşması sonrasında AB-15 içinde ihracat yakınsamasına sahip olan Birleşik Krallık BK , 2004 genişlemesinin ardından herhangi bir yakınsama grubuna dahil olmamaktadır. Netice itibarıyla ihracat yakınsaması modeli, BREXIT kararını desteklenmekte ve gelecekte AB’de benzer süreçlerin gerçekleşme ihtimalinin olduğunu göstermektedir.

References

  • Baldwin, R. E. ve Wyplosz, C. The Economics of European Integration, London: McGraw-Hill Education, 2009.
  • Balkır, C. Uluslararası Ekonomik Bütünleşme: Kuram, Politika ve Uygulama, AB ve Dünya Örnekleri, İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2016.
  • Ben-David, D. “Trade and Convergence Among Countries”, Journal of International Economics, 40, 1996, s. 279-298.
  • Ben-David, D. ve Loewy, M. B. “Free Trade, Growth and Convergence”, Journal of Economic Growth, 3, 1998, s. 143-170.
  • Borsi, M. T. ve Metiu, N. “The Evolution of Economic Convergence in the European Union”, Empirical Economics, 48, 2015, s. 657-681.
  • Cyrus, T. “Does Convergence cause trade, or Does Trade Cause Convergence?”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 13(4), 2004, s. 397-418.
  • Dollar, D., Edward N. W., and William J. B.. “The Factor-Price Equalization Model and Industry Labor Productivity: An Empirical Test across Countries”, içinde Robert C. Feenstra (ed.), Empirical Methods for International Trade. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1988.
  • Du, K. “Econometric Convergence Test and Club Clustering Using Stata”, The Stata Journal. 17(4), 2017, s. 882-900.
  • Gaulier, G. “Trade and Convergence: Revisiting Ben-David”, CEPII Working Paper, 2003-06, 2003.
  • International Trade Center (ITC), Trade Map, 2020, Erişim tarihi: 05.09.2020, https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx .
  • Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. ve Weil, D. N. “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 1992, s. 407 – 438.
  • Marelli, E. ve Signorelli, M. Europe and the Euro, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
  • Milutinović, S. “The Effects of International Trade on Income Convergence of The European Union Member States”, Industrija, 44(2), 2016, s. 7-22.
  • Monfort, M., Cuestas, J. C. ve Ordonez, J. “Real Convergence in Europe: A Cluster Analysis”, Economic Modelling. 33. 2013, s. 689-694.
  • Monfort, P. “Convergence of EU Regions Measures and Evolution”, European Union Regional Policy Working Papers, 01/2008, 2008.
  • Pera, J. “A two-speed Europe – A Risk of Total Disintegration, or An Opportunity for the Development of the European Union? An Attempt at a Projection”, Przegląd Politologiczny, 4, 2017, s. 21-34.
  • Phillips, P. C. ve Sul, D. (2007). “Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests”, Econometrica, 75(6), 2007, s. 1771-1855.
  • Schnurbus, J., Haupt, H. ve Meier, V. “Economic Transition and Growth: A Replication”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32 (5), 2017, s. 1039-1042.
  • Slaughter, M. J. “Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade”, National Bureau Economic Review Working paper Series, No.5897, 1997.
  • Stanisic, N. “The Effects of The Economic Crisis on Income Convergence in The European Union”, Acta Oeconomica. 62(2), 2012, s. 161-182.
  • World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2020, Erişim Tarihi:10.09.2020, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=EU- 1W.

Evaluation of Brexit in The Light of Export Convergence

Year 2021, Issue: 26, 555 - 569, 30.04.2021

Abstract

States started to be member of economic integrations after the Second World War to increase the efficiency of economic cooperation. Theoretically, economic integration models prioritize interests of members and especially are expected to contribute the export of that countries. Therefore, this study examines export convergence and enriches the literature that usually models income convergence. The main target of this study to reveal whether export convergence model supports the Britain Exit BREXIT decision in 2016. In this context, the paper analyzes European Union EU – 15 before and after EU agreement and EU-25 the most extensive enlargement of EU in 2004 countries in terms of export convergence. According to results, export of United Kingdom UK had convergence in EU-15 countries after EU agreement. However, the 2004 enlargement of EU led to suppress the export convergence of UK. In conclusion, the export convergence model supports BREXIT decision and reveals the probability of such processes in the EU.

References

  • Baldwin, R. E. ve Wyplosz, C. The Economics of European Integration, London: McGraw-Hill Education, 2009.
  • Balkır, C. Uluslararası Ekonomik Bütünleşme: Kuram, Politika ve Uygulama, AB ve Dünya Örnekleri, İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2016.
  • Ben-David, D. “Trade and Convergence Among Countries”, Journal of International Economics, 40, 1996, s. 279-298.
  • Ben-David, D. ve Loewy, M. B. “Free Trade, Growth and Convergence”, Journal of Economic Growth, 3, 1998, s. 143-170.
  • Borsi, M. T. ve Metiu, N. “The Evolution of Economic Convergence in the European Union”, Empirical Economics, 48, 2015, s. 657-681.
  • Cyrus, T. “Does Convergence cause trade, or Does Trade Cause Convergence?”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 13(4), 2004, s. 397-418.
  • Dollar, D., Edward N. W., and William J. B.. “The Factor-Price Equalization Model and Industry Labor Productivity: An Empirical Test across Countries”, içinde Robert C. Feenstra (ed.), Empirical Methods for International Trade. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1988.
  • Du, K. “Econometric Convergence Test and Club Clustering Using Stata”, The Stata Journal. 17(4), 2017, s. 882-900.
  • Gaulier, G. “Trade and Convergence: Revisiting Ben-David”, CEPII Working Paper, 2003-06, 2003.
  • International Trade Center (ITC), Trade Map, 2020, Erişim tarihi: 05.09.2020, https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx .
  • Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. ve Weil, D. N. “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 1992, s. 407 – 438.
  • Marelli, E. ve Signorelli, M. Europe and the Euro, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
  • Milutinović, S. “The Effects of International Trade on Income Convergence of The European Union Member States”, Industrija, 44(2), 2016, s. 7-22.
  • Monfort, M., Cuestas, J. C. ve Ordonez, J. “Real Convergence in Europe: A Cluster Analysis”, Economic Modelling. 33. 2013, s. 689-694.
  • Monfort, P. “Convergence of EU Regions Measures and Evolution”, European Union Regional Policy Working Papers, 01/2008, 2008.
  • Pera, J. “A two-speed Europe – A Risk of Total Disintegration, or An Opportunity for the Development of the European Union? An Attempt at a Projection”, Przegląd Politologiczny, 4, 2017, s. 21-34.
  • Phillips, P. C. ve Sul, D. (2007). “Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests”, Econometrica, 75(6), 2007, s. 1771-1855.
  • Schnurbus, J., Haupt, H. ve Meier, V. “Economic Transition and Growth: A Replication”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 32 (5), 2017, s. 1039-1042.
  • Slaughter, M. J. “Per Capita Income Convergence and the Role of International Trade”, National Bureau Economic Review Working paper Series, No.5897, 1997.
  • Stanisic, N. “The Effects of The Economic Crisis on Income Convergence in The European Union”, Acta Oeconomica. 62(2), 2012, s. 161-182.
  • World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2020, Erişim Tarihi:10.09.2020, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=EU- 1W.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Halil Şimdi This is me

Publication Date April 30, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Issue: 26

Cite

APA Şimdi, H. (2021). Brexit Kararının İhracat Yakınsama Modeliyle Değerlendirilmesi. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(26), 555-569.