D-8 Ülkelerinde İhracat Çeşitliliği, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Ekolojik Ayak İzi İlişkisi: Ampirik Bir Analiz

Year 2024, Issue: 37, 384 - 405, 15.10.2024

Fatih Akın

https://doi.org/10.54600/igdirsosbilder.1493966

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, D-8 (Türkiye, Endonezya, İran, Mısır, Pakistan, Malezya, Nijerya ve Bangladeş) ülkelerinin 1995-2022 dönemi için ihracat çeşitliliği, ekonomik büyüme ve ekolojik ayak izi arasındaki ilişki panel Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) analiz yöntemi ile incelemektir. Ayrıca, Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) panel nedensellik testi ile nedensellik testi de uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen panel ARDL sonuçlarına göre, ekolojik ayak izini ihracat çeşitlendirmesi hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde azaltırken, ekonomik büyüme ise kısa dönemde artırmaktadır. Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse nedensellik testindeki panel Fisher Test İstatistiği sonuçlarına göre; ihracat çeşitliliği (EXPD), ekonomik büyüme (GDP) ve ekolojik ayak izi (EF) arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. EXPD ile EF için bireysel olarak ülke sonuçlarına bakıldığında; Endonezya, İran, Mısır, Malezya’da çift yönlü nedensellik, Nijerya’da EXPD’den EF’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ve Türkiye’de ise EF’den EXPD’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik bulunmuştur. GDP ile EF için bireysel olarak ülke sonuçlarına bakıldığında; İran’da çift yönlü nedensellik, Endonezya, Malezya, Nijerya’da GDP’den EF’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ve Türkiye, Mısır, Pakistan, Bangladeş’te ise EF’den GDP’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik bulunmuştur. GDP ile EXPD için bireysel olarak ülke sonuçlarına bakıldığında; Türkiye, Endonezya, İran, Malezya, Nijerya, Bangladeş’te GDP’den EXPD’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ve Mısır’da ise EXPD’den GDP’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak D-8 ülkelerinde ihracat çeşitliliği daha çok artırılırsa, çevreye olan zarar azalacaktır.

Keywords

D-8 Ülkeleri, Ekolojik Ayak İzi, İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel ARDL, Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse Panel Nedensellik Testi

The Relationship Between Export Diversification, Economic Growth and Ecological Footprint in D-8 Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between export diversification, economic growth and ecological footprint of D-8 (Turkiye, Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, Pakistan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Malaysia, Nigeria and Bangladesh) countries for the period 1995-2022 using panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method. In addition, causality test with Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) panel causality test is also applied. According to the panel ARDL results, export diversification decreases the ecological footprint in both the short and long run, while economic growth increases it in the short run. According to the results of the panel Fisher Test Statistic in the Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse causality test, there is a bidirectional causality between export diversification (EXPD), economic growth (GDP) and ecological footprint (EF). Looking at the individual country results for EXPD and EF, bidirectional causality was found in Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, Malaysia, unidirectional causality from EXPD to EF in Nigeria and unidirectional causality from EF to EXPD in Turkiye. When individual country results for GDP and EF are analyzed, bidirectional causality is found in Iran, unidirectional causality from GDP to EF in Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and unidirectional causality from EF to GDP in Turkiye, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh. Looking at the individual country results for GDP and EXPD, unidirectional causality from GDP to EXPD was found in Turkiye, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Bangladesh and unidirectional causality from EXPD to GDP in Egypt. As a result, if export diversification is increased in the D-8 countries, environmental damage will be reduced.

Keywords

D-8 Countries, Ecological Footprint, Export Diversification, Economic Growth, Panel ARDL, Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse Panel Causality Test

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