The shift from airline efficiency to system constraints: A system-level analysis of U.S. Airline operational performance (2022-2024)

Abstract

Airline operational performance is substantially affected by delays and cancellations. This study presents a comparative analysis of performance changes between 2022 and 2024 using key indicators such as on-time performance, cancellations, diversions, and delay causes (air carrier, weather, security, NAS, and late aircraft). The results reveal a clear seasonality pattern across all three years. Average on-time rates improved from 76.3% in 2022 to 78.3% in 2023, before slightly declining to 78.0% in 2024, with 2023 showing the best overall performance. Peak on-time performance occurred in October 2022 (83.25%), November 2023 (86.22%), and October 2024 (85.81%), while the lowest levels were observed in December 2022 (68.72%) and July in both 2023 (69.45%) and 2024 (68.08%). Cancellation rates were highest in 2022 at approximately 2.8%, followed by a notable improvement in 2023 (1.3%) and stability in 2024 (1.35%). Diversion rates remained consistently low (around 0.23%-0.24%) with no significant variation. In terms of delay components, Air Carrier Delays decreased over time, whereas NAS Delays and Late Arriving Aircraft Delays showed a gradual increase. Overall, the findings suggest the possibility of a gradual shift from operational pressures associated with Air Carrier Delays toward broader system-level constraints, particularly NAS-related and Late Arriving Aircraft delays, affecting operational performance.

Keywords

• Airline operational performance
• Air transport system
• Cancellation rate
• Delay propagation
• Flight delays

Havayolu verimliliğinden sistem kısıtlamalarına geçiş: ABD Havayollarının operasyonel performansına ilişkin sistem düzeyinde bir analiz (2022-2024)

Abstract

Havayolu işletmelerinin operasyonel performansı gecikmelerden ve iptallerden önemli ölçüde etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışma, zamanında performans, iptaller, sapmalar ve gecikme nedenleri (hava taşıyıcısı, hava durumu, güvenlik, NAS ve geciken uçak) gibi temel göstergeleri kullanarak 2022 ile 2024 arasındaki performans değişikliklerinin karşılaştırmalı bir analizini sunmaktadır. Sonuçlar, üç yıl boyunca net bir mevsimsellik modelini ortaya koymaktadır. Ortalama zamanında performans oranları 2022 yılındaki %76,3'ten 2023'te %78,3'e yükselmiştir, ardından 2024'te hafif bir düşüşle %78,0'a gerilemiştir ve 2023 en iyi genel performansı göstermektedir. Zamanında en yüksek performans Ekim 2022 (%83,25), Kasım 2023 (%86,22) ve Ekim 2024'te (%85,81) görülürken, en düşük seviyeler Aralık 2022 (%68,72) ve Temmuz aylarında hem 2023 (%69,45) hem de 2024 (%68,08) yıllarında gözlenmektedir. İptal oranları yaklaşık %2,8 ile 2022'de en yüksek seviyedeyken; bunu 2023'te kayda değer bir iyileşme (%1,3) ve 2024'te (%1,35) istikrar izlemektedir. Yönlendirme oranları, önemli bir değişiklik olmaksızın sürekli olarak düşük (%0,23-%0,24 civarında) kalmıştır. Gecikme bileşenleri açısından hava taşıyıcısı gecikmeleri zamanla azalırken, NAS gecikmeleri ve geç gelen uçak gecikmeleri kademeli bir artış göstermektedir. Genel olarak bulgular, hava taşıyıcısı gecikmeleriyle ilişkili operasyonel baskılardan, operasyonel performansı etkileyen, özellikle NAS ile ilgili ve geç gelen uçak gecikmeleri gibi daha geniş sistem düzeyindeki kısıtlamalara doğru kademeli bir geçiş olasılığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Gecikmelerin yayılması
• Hava taşımacılığı sistemi
• Havayolu işletme performansı
• İptal oranı
• Uçuş gecikmeleri

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