Determinants of financial failure risk in airlines

Abstract

Airlines have faced financial failures as a result of different crises in the historical process. As a result of the oil crisis in 1978, fuel costs increased and financial crises occurred. After the twin tower terrorist attack in 2001, airline businesses suffered greatly. As a result of the global economic crisis in 2008, airline businesses exposed to huge losses. Airlines have to take precautions against financial failures, especially in times of crisis. In this context, the aim of the study is to determine the operational determinants of financial failure risk in airline companies. This study focuses on the effect of airline industry-specific rates on financial failure in traditional airlines.. Within the scope of the study, factors affecting the risk of financial failure were examined in 11 traditional airline business samples between 2009 and 2019. As operational rates specific to airlines that may affect the financial failure of airline businesses; revenue per km (RPK), load factor (LF) and cost per available seat km (CASK) were used. Altman Z score was used as an indicator of financial failure. According to the results of the fixed effects panel data analysis, it was determined that the CASK indicator had a negative effect on financial failure. As a result, it is concluded that airlines should minimize fuel and labor costs, which are the most important cost items, in order to avoid the effects of financial failure.

Keywords

• Financial Failure Risk
• Airlines
• Altman Z’’ Score
• Panel Data Analysis

Havayolu işletmelerinde finansal başarısızlık riskinin belirleyicileri

Abstract

Havayolu işletmeleri tarihsel süreç içerisinde farklı krizler neticesinde finansal başarısızlığa maruz kalmışlardır. 1978 yılındaki petrol krizi neticesinde yakıt maliyetleri artarak finansal krizler yaşanmıştır. 2001 yılında yaşanan ikiz kule terör saldırısı ve 2008 yılında yaşanan küresel ekonomik kriz neticesinde havayolu işletmeleri büyük zararlar etmiştir. Havayolu işletmeleri özellikle kriz zamanlarında finansal başarısızlıklara karşı tedbir almak zorundadırlar. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı havayolu işletmelerinde finansal başarısızlık riskinin operasyonel belirleyicilerinin saptanmasıdır. Bu çalışma, geleneksel havayolu işletmelerinde havayolu sektörüne özgü oranların finansal başarısızlığa etkisi üzerine odaklanmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında finansal başarısızlık riskine etki eden faktörler, 2009 ile 2019 yılları arasında 11 geleneksel havayolu işletmesi örnekleminde inceleme yapılmıştır. Havayolu işletmelerinin finansal başarısızlığına etki edebilecek havayollarına özgü operasyonel oranlar olarak; ücretli yolcu km (RPK), uçak koltuk doluluk oran (LF) ve arz edilen koltuk km başına maliyet (CASK) kullanılmıştır. Finansal başarısızlık göstergesi olarak Altman Z’’ skoru kullanılmıştır. Yapılan sabit etkiler panel veri analizi sonucuna göre ise CASK göstergesinin finansal başarısızlığı negatif olarak etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak havayolu işletmeleri, finansal başarısızlık etkilerinden kurtulmak için en önemli maliyet kalemlerinden olan yakıt ve işçilik maliyetlerini minimize etmeleri gerektiği sonucuna varılmaktadır.

Keywords

• Finansal Başarısızlık Riski
• Havayolu İşletmeleri
• Altman Z’’ Skoru
• Panel Veri Analizi

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