Dynamic and quantitative Sensitivity analysis on the efficient development of tight oil

Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 16 - 23, 15.03.2018

Jie Bai , Huiqing Liu Jing Wang Ling Xie Xueping Li

https://doi.org/10.22399/ijcesen.368539

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present dynamic and quantitative
sensitivity analysis for the tight oil development with horizontal fracturing
well. And a set of correlations predict the oil production and effective swept
scope are built   correspondingly.

In this paper, a group of orthogonal schemes were designed and
simulated with the CMG IMEX Simulator. And 11 parameters are filtered after
extensive investigation of typical characteristics of tight oil in China and
abroad. The parameters include reservoir characteristics, threshold pressure
gradient and stress sensitive effect, fracturing parameters etc. And analysing
each five years’ simulation results including cumulative production, oil
recovery and effective flow area.

The analysis result
shows that the initial reservoir pressure and well bottom hole pressure, which
decides whether the energy is sufficient to drive oil flow, is the most
significant factor to influence the tight oil cumulative production. Secondly,
reservoir thickness and porosity influence whether the reservoir oil is rich.
However, for the oil recovery, the contribution of fracturing is more
essential, which directly determines whether it has industrial oil production.
In addition, threshold pressure gradient and stress sensitivity, the distinct
seepage characteristics between tight oil and traditional reservoirs, will
further exacerbate the ultra-low permeability and seepage process. The most
immediate effect is that the swept scope range becomes smaller. In addition, a
series mathematical model are also established for the development effect
estimation through the use of multivariate regression, Through data validation,
the quantitative model error ranges 5.45% from 9.29%.

Keywords

tight oil, sensitivity analysis, threshold pressure gradient, stress sensitivity

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