Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria

Abstract

Some concern has been expressed over the continuous low production from Marginal oil field. This production problem has been ascribed to multitude of hindrances occasioned by the nature of earth formation in the zone. Attempts to ascertain the character or complexion of such problems have often eluded researchers and operators of the field. This study adopts the use of auto-regressive time series model to find out the root cause or the mechanism that generate high output or low output in marginal field. The correlogram that captures the memory of the mechanism that generated the output process was established. And by judiciously picking and choosing the right lags from the correlogram, model that replicates the production process mechanism was also established. The result obtained shows that there is a close tracking of the forecast with the actual. Evidently, the Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained is 5.07% showing that the errors in forecast are marginal suggesting that the forecast is robust if not sure-fire.

Keywords

• Auto-regression
• Forecast
• Marginal field
• Oilfield
• Time series

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