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Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model

Özlem KUVAT [1] , Ege ADALI [2]

Demand forecasting is based on the principle of trying to forecast the demand for the outputs of enterprises in the field of manufacturing or service for the next periods. It requires the estimation of various future scenarios, if necessary, taking measures and taking steps, and during the application phase, the technique that is most suitable for the characteristics of the examined data set is selected and used. As a result of a healthy analysis carried out in this way, detailed plans and strict measures can be taken for the unknown, negative scenarios of the future. This study analyzes the characteristics of a series of power transformers of a company operating in the electromechanical industry in the past years, and as a result of this analysis, the Box Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method (ARIMA), which best fits the results, is expected to occur for power transformers in the future. It was made to estimate the amount of demand. Within the scope of this study, firstly, the most suitable model was tried to be determined by taking into consideration the past 132 months data of PTS. It was decided that the best choice among the alternative models was the ARMA (4,4) x (0,1) 12 model. The model was found to be stable and it was decided that the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Theil inequality coefficient values determined in the performance measurements were appropriate.
ARIMA,, Box Jenkins,, Transformer demand forecast
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Primary Language en Engineering, Multidisciplinary Research Article Orcid: 0000-0001-7017-4557Author: Özlem KUVAT (Primary Author)Institution: Balıkesir ÜniversitesiCountry: Turkey Orcid: 0000-0002-5739-5854Author: Ege ADALI Institution: BALIKESİR ÜNİVERSİTESİCountry: Turkey Application Date : July 20, 2020 Acceptance Date : September 29, 2020 Publication Date : October 5, 2020
 Bibtex @research article { ijeat771010, journal = {International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies}, issn = {}, eissn = {2548-060X}, address = {editor.ijeat@gmail.com}, publisher = {İlker ÖRS}, year = {2020}, volume = {7}, pages = {95 - 100}, doi = {10.31593/ijeat.771010}, title = {Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model}, key = {cite}, author = {Kuvat, Özlem and Adalı, Ege} } APA Kuvat, Ö , Adalı, E . (2020). Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model . International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies , 7 (3) , 95-100 . DOI: 10.31593/ijeat.771010 MLA Kuvat, Ö , Adalı, E . "Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model" . International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 7 (2020 ): 95-100 Chicago Kuvat, Ö , Adalı, E . "Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model". International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 7 (2020 ): 95-100 RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model AU - Özlem Kuvat , Ege Adalı Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.31593/ijeat.771010 DO - 10.31593/ijeat.771010 T2 - International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 95 EP - 100 VL - 7 IS - 3 SN - -2548-060X M3 - doi: 10.31593/ijeat.771010 UR - https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.771010 Y2 - 2020 ER - EndNote %0 International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model %A Özlem Kuvat , Ege Adalı %T Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model %D 2020 %J International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies %P -2548-060X %V 7 %N 3 %R doi: 10.31593/ijeat.771010 %U 10.31593/ijeat.771010 ISNAD Kuvat, Özlem , Adalı, Ege . "Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model". International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 7 / 3 (October 2020): 95-100 . https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.771010 AMA Kuvat Ö , Adalı E . Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model. IJEAT. 2020; 7(3): 95-100. Vancouver Kuvat Ö , Adalı E . Power transformer demand forecast with Box Jenkins ARIMA model. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies. 2020; 7(3): 95-100.

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