Research Article
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Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 81 - 87, 05.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.773243

Abstract

References

  • Atsegbua, L. 2005. Issues in the Development of Marginal Oilfields in Nigeria. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law. 23:3, 323-336, DOI: 10.1080/02646811.2005.11433408.
  • Kue, Y.N. and Orodu, O.D. 2006. Economic Analysis of Innovative Approaches to Marginal Field Development. Paper presented at the 30th Annual SPE international Technical Conference and Exhibition in Abuja, Nigeria, July31-August 2.
  • Oruwari, H.O. 2016. Sustainable Corporate Social Responsibility in the Development of Marginal Oil Fields in Niger Delta. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development. Vol. 5 Issue 4. Pp. 36-42.
  • Oroma, O.J. 2006. What are the legal and contractual implications of the 40% cap on foreign equity participation in Nigeria marginal fields? Available from: www.dundee.ac.uk/cepmlp/gateway/files.php?file=CAR-11_1...pdf (accessed on 12 April 2011)
  • Oruwari, H.O. and Dosunmu, A. 2016. Local Content Policy and Its Implications on Marginal Oil Fields Operations and the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development. Vol. 5 Issue 6. Pp. 354-360.
  • Oruwari, H.O. and Dosunmu, A. 2016. Optimum Utilization of Natural Gas from Marginal Oil Fields in Nigeria. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development. Vol. 5 Issue 6. Pp. 361-369.
  • Aldrich, J. 2000. Are Marginal Fields Worth the Effort?: An Examination of Past Efforts in Incentives and a Look Forward to Future Potential, paper presented at AAPG international conference, Bali, October, 2000.
  • Offia, U. S. 2011. Development and Management of Marginal Oil Field in the Niger Delta Basin: Opportunities and Challenges. Petroleum Technology Development Journal. Vol. 1, July 2011.
  • Egbogah, E.O. 2011. Onshore/Marginal Field Developments: Challenges, Opportunities and Prospects for the Future. presented at 2011 SPE Annual Oloiribi Lecture and Energy Forum, Lagos, Nigeria, June 30.
  • Akinwale, Y.O. and Akinbami, J.K. 2016. Economic Evaluation of Nigerian Marginal Oil and Gas Field using Financial Simulation Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3), 563-574.
  • Akinpelu, A.O. and Omole, O.A. 2009. Economics of Nigeria Marginal oil field. Identifying high impact variable. SPE paper no 106001: Nigeria annual international conference and exhibition. 3-5 August 2009, Abuja, Nigeria.
  • Akinwale, Y.O. 2016. Harnessing Science Technology and Innovation for Enhancing Marginal Oil and Gas Field Development in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis. International Journal of eBusiness and eGovernment Studies. Vol 8, No 2, 47-63.
  • Kostetsky, O. 1994. A facilitated, graphics and Monte Carlo based predicted project process. Engineering Management Conference Proceedings, IEEE International Conference, pp: 177-184, ISBN: 0-7803-1955-9, CH3458-7194/0006, Indexed by IET Inspec.
  • Harbaugh, J.W., J.C. Davis and C. Wendebourg. 1995. Computing risk for oil prospects: Principles and programs. Computer Methods in the Sciences, Vol. 4, ISBN-10: 0080418902, Har/Dsk Edn., Pergamon Publishers.
  • Chinbat, U. and Takakuwa, S. 2009. Using Simulation analysis for mining risk management project. Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), Nagoya, Japan, pp: 2612-2623.
  • Rose, P. 2001. Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, No. 12, AAPG, USA.
  • Jacinto, C.M.E. 2002. Optimal investment decisions for a set of projects under conditions of uncertainty. Discrete Event Simulation for the Risk of Development of an Oilfield. Proceedings of the Water Simulation Conference.
  • Coelho, D.K. and Jacinto, C.M.C. 2005. Risk assessment of drilling and completion operations in petroleum wells using a Monte Carlo and a neural network approach. Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, pp: 1892-1897.
  • Jin, D., Wang, Z., Liu, X., Yang, J.M. and Han, M. 2010. Construction project schedule risk analysis and assessment using Monte Carlo simulation method. IEEE International Conference on Advanced Management Science (ICAMS), Nanjing, China, 1: 597-601.
  • Svenda, G.S., Kanjuh, S., Konjic, T. and Miranda, V. 2006. Using a Fuzzy Modeling in Decision Making for Planning Under Uncertainty with Risk Analysis Paradigm, IEEE Publication. 8th Seminar on Neutral Network Application in Electrical Energy, Nev Rel. Retrieved from: http:// www. ewh. ieee. org/reg/8/conferences.html, September
  • Lingling, M., Liwen, C. and Ping, L. 2008. Real Estate Investment Risk Analysis Based on Fuzzy AHP. ISBN: 978-1-4244-2108-4/08/$25.00 © 2008 IEEE.
  • Jian-Wei, L.V. and Zhonghua, L. 2008. Research on dynamic evolvement analysis and modeling of risk in development of navy vessel. 4th International Conference on Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing, WiCOM '08, Wuhan, pp: 1-4.
  • Wang, J.Q. and Sun, T. 2008. Fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method based on prospect theory. International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ISBN: 978-0-7695-3435- 0/08 $25.00 © 2008 IEEE, DOI 10.1109/ICIII.2008.229.
  • Petreska, B.R. and Kolemisevska-Gugulovska, T.D. 2010. A fuzzy rate-of-return based model for portfolio selection and risk estimation. IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics (SMC), DOI: 10.1109/ICSMC.2010.5642278, pp: 1871-1877.
  • Chinbat, U. and Takakuwa, S. 2009. Using Simulation analysis for mining risk management project. Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), Nagoya, Japan, pp: 2612-2623.
  • Adamu, M., Ajienka, J., Ikiensikimama, S. 2013. Economic analysis on the development of Nigerian offshore marginal fields using probabilistic approach. Advances in Petroleum Exploration and Development, 6(1), 11-21.
  • Alaneme, C.E. and Igboanugo, A.C. 2013. A factorial study on the inherent risk of Nigerian Marginal oil fields. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 6(3): 468-476, 2013.
  • Akinwale, Y. 2015. Empirical Analysis of Technology and Innovation Capabilities of the Indigenous Oil and Gas Firms Towards the Development of Oil Fields in Nigeria. A Paper Presented at NACETEM Seminar Series, No. 08/017.

A factorial analysis on the built-in risks influencing marginal oil field development in Nigeria

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 81 - 87, 05.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.773243

Abstract

Marginal field development in the prolific Niger Delta environment is of strategic importance to the Federal Government of Nigeria’s drive towards aggressive reserve and production capacity enhancement. For successful development of a marginal field, it is imperative to understand the various risks and uncertainties that are inherent in developing the field as the oil industry is exposed to a lot of risk more than most manufacturing industries in the world. This study offers clarification and deep intuition about the insidiousness of these risk factors, discusses their wider implications and gives justification for their economic significance. This study investigates a total of thirty-four (34) risk variables influencing marginal oil field development by using a survey approach involving the use of Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance (KCC) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance (KCC) analyzed the level of agreement among the 13 Judges who ranked the variables in descending order of importance. The result showed an index of agreement in ranking among the judges as W=0.60. This indicates 60% agreement among the Judges. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) facilitated by StatistiXL software package was efficient in achieving parsimony in factor reduction from thirty-four variables to mere six factors. The result shows that six principal factors, creatively labelled: Geo-technical Economism, Operational and Economic Leaven, Fiscal Ripple, Bottom Line, Logistics and Oil quality represent the principal risk factors that influence marginal oil field development in Nigeria. This study brings to bear the militating factors that affect operations and profitability of marginal oilfields development in Nigeria.

References

  • Atsegbua, L. 2005. Issues in the Development of Marginal Oilfields in Nigeria. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law. 23:3, 323-336, DOI: 10.1080/02646811.2005.11433408.
  • Kue, Y.N. and Orodu, O.D. 2006. Economic Analysis of Innovative Approaches to Marginal Field Development. Paper presented at the 30th Annual SPE international Technical Conference and Exhibition in Abuja, Nigeria, July31-August 2.
  • Oruwari, H.O. 2016. Sustainable Corporate Social Responsibility in the Development of Marginal Oil Fields in Niger Delta. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development. Vol. 5 Issue 4. Pp. 36-42.
  • Oroma, O.J. 2006. What are the legal and contractual implications of the 40% cap on foreign equity participation in Nigeria marginal fields? Available from: www.dundee.ac.uk/cepmlp/gateway/files.php?file=CAR-11_1...pdf (accessed on 12 April 2011)
  • Oruwari, H.O. and Dosunmu, A. 2016. Local Content Policy and Its Implications on Marginal Oil Fields Operations and the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development. Vol. 5 Issue 6. Pp. 354-360.
  • Oruwari, H.O. and Dosunmu, A. 2016. Optimum Utilization of Natural Gas from Marginal Oil Fields in Nigeria. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development. Vol. 5 Issue 6. Pp. 361-369.
  • Aldrich, J. 2000. Are Marginal Fields Worth the Effort?: An Examination of Past Efforts in Incentives and a Look Forward to Future Potential, paper presented at AAPG international conference, Bali, October, 2000.
  • Offia, U. S. 2011. Development and Management of Marginal Oil Field in the Niger Delta Basin: Opportunities and Challenges. Petroleum Technology Development Journal. Vol. 1, July 2011.
  • Egbogah, E.O. 2011. Onshore/Marginal Field Developments: Challenges, Opportunities and Prospects for the Future. presented at 2011 SPE Annual Oloiribi Lecture and Energy Forum, Lagos, Nigeria, June 30.
  • Akinwale, Y.O. and Akinbami, J.K. 2016. Economic Evaluation of Nigerian Marginal Oil and Gas Field using Financial Simulation Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3), 563-574.
  • Akinpelu, A.O. and Omole, O.A. 2009. Economics of Nigeria Marginal oil field. Identifying high impact variable. SPE paper no 106001: Nigeria annual international conference and exhibition. 3-5 August 2009, Abuja, Nigeria.
  • Akinwale, Y.O. 2016. Harnessing Science Technology and Innovation for Enhancing Marginal Oil and Gas Field Development in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis. International Journal of eBusiness and eGovernment Studies. Vol 8, No 2, 47-63.
  • Kostetsky, O. 1994. A facilitated, graphics and Monte Carlo based predicted project process. Engineering Management Conference Proceedings, IEEE International Conference, pp: 177-184, ISBN: 0-7803-1955-9, CH3458-7194/0006, Indexed by IET Inspec.
  • Harbaugh, J.W., J.C. Davis and C. Wendebourg. 1995. Computing risk for oil prospects: Principles and programs. Computer Methods in the Sciences, Vol. 4, ISBN-10: 0080418902, Har/Dsk Edn., Pergamon Publishers.
  • Chinbat, U. and Takakuwa, S. 2009. Using Simulation analysis for mining risk management project. Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), Nagoya, Japan, pp: 2612-2623.
  • Rose, P. 2001. Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, No. 12, AAPG, USA.
  • Jacinto, C.M.E. 2002. Optimal investment decisions for a set of projects under conditions of uncertainty. Discrete Event Simulation for the Risk of Development of an Oilfield. Proceedings of the Water Simulation Conference.
  • Coelho, D.K. and Jacinto, C.M.C. 2005. Risk assessment of drilling and completion operations in petroleum wells using a Monte Carlo and a neural network approach. Proceedings of the 2005 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, pp: 1892-1897.
  • Jin, D., Wang, Z., Liu, X., Yang, J.M. and Han, M. 2010. Construction project schedule risk analysis and assessment using Monte Carlo simulation method. IEEE International Conference on Advanced Management Science (ICAMS), Nanjing, China, 1: 597-601.
  • Svenda, G.S., Kanjuh, S., Konjic, T. and Miranda, V. 2006. Using a Fuzzy Modeling in Decision Making for Planning Under Uncertainty with Risk Analysis Paradigm, IEEE Publication. 8th Seminar on Neutral Network Application in Electrical Energy, Nev Rel. Retrieved from: http:// www. ewh. ieee. org/reg/8/conferences.html, September
  • Lingling, M., Liwen, C. and Ping, L. 2008. Real Estate Investment Risk Analysis Based on Fuzzy AHP. ISBN: 978-1-4244-2108-4/08/$25.00 © 2008 IEEE.
  • Jian-Wei, L.V. and Zhonghua, L. 2008. Research on dynamic evolvement analysis and modeling of risk in development of navy vessel. 4th International Conference on Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing, WiCOM '08, Wuhan, pp: 1-4.
  • Wang, J.Q. and Sun, T. 2008. Fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method based on prospect theory. International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ISBN: 978-0-7695-3435- 0/08 $25.00 © 2008 IEEE, DOI 10.1109/ICIII.2008.229.
  • Petreska, B.R. and Kolemisevska-Gugulovska, T.D. 2010. A fuzzy rate-of-return based model for portfolio selection and risk estimation. IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics (SMC), DOI: 10.1109/ICSMC.2010.5642278, pp: 1871-1877.
  • Chinbat, U. and Takakuwa, S. 2009. Using Simulation analysis for mining risk management project. Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), Nagoya, Japan, pp: 2612-2623.
  • Adamu, M., Ajienka, J., Ikiensikimama, S. 2013. Economic analysis on the development of Nigerian offshore marginal fields using probabilistic approach. Advances in Petroleum Exploration and Development, 6(1), 11-21.
  • Alaneme, C.E. and Igboanugo, A.C. 2013. A factorial study on the inherent risk of Nigerian Marginal oil fields. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 6(3): 468-476, 2013.
  • Akinwale, Y. 2015. Empirical Analysis of Technology and Innovation Capabilities of the Indigenous Oil and Gas Firms Towards the Development of Oil Fields in Nigeria. A Paper Presented at NACETEM Seminar Series, No. 08/017.
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Industrial Engineering
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ayodeji Omotehinse 0000-0002-5036-0800

Publication Date October 5, 2020
Submission Date July 24, 2020
Acceptance Date September 29, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 7 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Omotehinse, A. (2020). A factorial analysis on the built-in risks influencing marginal oil field development in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies, 7(3), 81-87. https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.773243
AMA Omotehinse A. A factorial analysis on the built-in risks influencing marginal oil field development in Nigeria. IJEAT. October 2020;7(3):81-87. doi:10.31593/ijeat.773243
Chicago Omotehinse, Ayodeji. “A Factorial Analysis on the Built-in Risks Influencing Marginal Oil Field Development in Nigeria”. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 7, no. 3 (October 2020): 81-87. https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.773243.
EndNote Omotehinse A (October 1, 2020) A factorial analysis on the built-in risks influencing marginal oil field development in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 7 3 81–87.
IEEE A. Omotehinse, “A factorial analysis on the built-in risks influencing marginal oil field development in Nigeria”, IJEAT, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 81–87, 2020, doi: 10.31593/ijeat.773243.
ISNAD Omotehinse, Ayodeji. “A Factorial Analysis on the Built-in Risks Influencing Marginal Oil Field Development in Nigeria”. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 7/3 (October 2020), 81-87. https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.773243.
JAMA Omotehinse A. A factorial analysis on the built-in risks influencing marginal oil field development in Nigeria. IJEAT. 2020;7:81–87.
MLA Omotehinse, Ayodeji. “A Factorial Analysis on the Built-in Risks Influencing Marginal Oil Field Development in Nigeria”. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies, vol. 7, no. 3, 2020, pp. 81-87, doi:10.31593/ijeat.773243.
Vancouver Omotehinse A. A factorial analysis on the built-in risks influencing marginal oil field development in Nigeria. IJEAT. 2020;7(3):81-7.