Research Article
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Year 2021, Volume 8, Issue 1, 1 - 5, 31.03.2021
https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.762290

Abstract

References

  • [1] Milton, A. 1980. A Progressive Approach to Marginal Field Development in S.E. Asia, paper SPE 8851 presented at the 1980 SPE session of Offshore South East Asia Conference, Feb.26 – 29.
  • [2] Department of Petroleum Resources, 1996. Guidelines for the Farm-out and Operations of Marginal Fields.
  • [3] Frynas, J. G. 1999. Oil in Nigeria: Conflict and litigation between oil companies and village communities. Münster: Lit Verlag.
  • [4] Aret, A. G. 2001. Marginal Field Developments. SPE Nigeria Council Sponsored Workshop NICON Hilton Hotel, Abuja, Nigeria, 16 March.
  • [5] Boyne, K., Horn, M., Bertrane, D., Fournie, F., Cooper, T., Quinn, P., Coudeville, F., Buchan, D., Allan, K. 2003. Otter- A Challenging Marginal oil Field Development. Paper SPE 83975 presented at offshore Europe 2003 held in Aberdeen, UK, 2-5, September 2003.
  • [6] Ayodele, O.R. and Frimpong, S. 2003. Economics of Nigerian Marginal Oil Fields. Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium held in Dallas, Texas, U.S.A., 5-8 April 2003.
  • [7] Kue, Y.N. and Orodu, O.D. 2006. Economic Analysis of Innovative Approaches to Marginal Field Development. Paper presented at the 30th Annual SPE international Technical Conference and Exhibition in Abuja,Nigeria, July31-August 2.
  • [8] Sumeet, G. and Tushar, G. 2012. Enhancing Marginal Field Development Economics: Leasing Operated Production Facilities Approach, Research Centre of social Sciences Journal of Global Economy, Vol. 8, pg 63-71.
  • [9] Adetoba, L. A. 2012. The Nigerian Marginal Field Initiative: Recent Developments. SPE 163040 paper presented at the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition held in Abuja, Nigeria, 6-8 August 2012.
  • [10] Choudhury, N.N. and Verma, S.K. 2016. Discovery of Development of Guda- A Case Study of a Marginal Field. Presented at the 12th Biennial International Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, India, 5-7 December.
  • [11] Oyakhire, B. and Omeke, J. 2017. Best Practice for Marginal Oil Field Development and Production Sustainability beyond First Oil Production. - Niger Delta Case. A paper presented at the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition held in Lagos, Nigeria, 31 July-2 August.
  • [12] Schuyler, J.R. 2001. Risk and decision analysis in projects. 2nd ed. Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute.
  • [13] Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M.K.S., and Buhl, S.L. 2005. How inaccurate are demand forecasts in public works projects? Journal of the American Planning Association, 78(2), pp.131-146.
  • [14] Alaneme, C.E. and Igboanugo, A.C. 2012. Application of Decision Theory in Assessing Marginal Oilfield Risks: Niger Delta Hub Example. Journal of Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences, 3(4): 594-600.
  • [15] Graham, G.M. and Collins, I.R. 2004. Assessing Scale Risks and Uncertainties for Subsea Marginal Field Developments. A paper presented at the 6th international Symposium on Oilfield Scale held in Aberdeen, UK, 26-27 May.
  • [16] Ward, S.C. and Chapman, C.B. 1991. Extending the use of risk analysis in project management. International Journal of Project Management, 9(2), pp. 117-123.
  • [17] Harbaugh, J., Davis, J., and Wendebourg, J. 1996. Computing risk for oil prospects: Principles and programs. Elsevier Science, 13(7), pp.852.
  • [18] McCray, G.E., Purvis, R.L., and McCray, C.G. 2002. Project Management under Uncertainties: The Impact of Heuristics and Biases. Project Management Journal, 33(1), pp.49-57.
  • [19] Inyang, E. and Oyinlola, S. 2006. Security Matrix in the Niger Delta Operations. Paper presented at the SPE international Conference on Health, Safety, and Environment in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production held in Abu Dhabi, U.A.E, 2-4 April 2006.
  • [20] Rose, P. 2012. Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, No. 12. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa USA.
  • [21] Andersen, S. and Mostue, B.A. 2011. Risk analysis and risk management approaches applied to the petroleum industry and their applicability to IO concepts. Safety Science.50 (10), pp. 2010-2019.
  • [22] Kaiser, M. 2010. Marginal production in the gulf of Mexico – I. Historical statistics & model framework. Applied Energy, 87(8), 2535-2550.
  • [23] Offia, U. 2011. Development and management of marginal oil field in the Niger delta basin: Opportunities and challenges. Petroleum Technology Development Journal: An International Journal, 1(1), 1-10.
  • [24] Devold, H. 2013. Oil and Gas Production Handbook: An Introduction to Oil and Gas Production, Transport, Refining and Petrochemical Industry. Oslo, Norway: ABB Oil and Gas Edition.
  • [25] Akinwale, Y.O. and Akinbami, J.K. 2016. Economic Evaluation of Nigerian Marginal Oil and Gas Field using Financial Simulation Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3), 563-574.
  • [26] Ayodele, O.R. and Frimpong, S. 2003. Economics of Nigerian Marginal Oil Fields. Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium held in Dallas, Texas, U.S.A., 5-8 April 2003.
  • [27] Iledare, O. 2004. Analyzing the Impact of Petroleum Fiscal Arrangements and Contract Terms on Petroleum E&P Economics and Host Government Take. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 88969: Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition on Petroleum, 2-4 August, Abuja, Nigeria.
  • [28] Adenikinju, A. and Oderinde, L. 2009, Economics of Offshore Oil Investment Projects and Production Sharing Contracts: A Meta Modeling Analysis. Nigeria: University of Ibadan. Available from: http://www.africametrics.org/documents/conference09/papers/ Adenikinju_Oderinde.pdf. [Last accessed on 2015 May 02].
  • [29] Adamu, M., Ajienka, J., Ikiensikimama, S. 2013. Economic analysis on the development of Nigerian offshore marginal fields using probabilistic approach. Advances in Petroleum Exploration and Development, 6(1), 11-21.
  • [30] Akinwale, Y.O. and Akinbami, J.K. 2016. Economic Evaluation of Nigerian Marginal Oil and Gas Field using Financial Simulation Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3), 563-574.
  • [31] Eze, C. L., Godwin, A. C., Dominic, E. U. 2017. Overview On The Emergence Of Marginal Oil Fields In Nigeria And Their Contribution To The Country's Oil Production. Nigerian Journal Of Oil And Gas Technology - Vol 2 No. 1. Pp. 229-236.
  • [32] Atsegbua, L. 2005. Issues in the Development of Marginal Oilfields in Nigeria, Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, 23:3, 323-336, DOI: 10.1080/02646811.2005.11433408.
  • [33] Humphrey, O., and Dosunmu, A. 2017. The Critical Success Factors for Marginal Oil Field Development in Nigeria. Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 2017, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1-10.

Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria

Year 2021, Volume 8, Issue 1, 1 - 5, 31.03.2021
https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.762290

Abstract

Some concern has been expressed over the continuous low production from Marginal oil field. This production problem has been ascribed to multitude of hindrances occasioned by the nature of earth formation in the zone. Attempts to ascertain the character or complexion of such problems have often eluded researchers and operators of the field. This study adopts the use of auto-regressive time series model to find out the root cause or the mechanism that generate high output or low output in marginal field. The correlogram that captures the memory of the mechanism that generated the output process was established. And by judiciously picking and choosing the right lags from the correlogram, model that replicates the production process mechanism was also established. The result obtained shows that there is a close tracking of the forecast with the actual. Evidently, the Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained is 5.07% showing that the errors in forecast are marginal suggesting that the forecast is robust if not sure-fire.

References

  • [1] Milton, A. 1980. A Progressive Approach to Marginal Field Development in S.E. Asia, paper SPE 8851 presented at the 1980 SPE session of Offshore South East Asia Conference, Feb.26 – 29.
  • [2] Department of Petroleum Resources, 1996. Guidelines for the Farm-out and Operations of Marginal Fields.
  • [3] Frynas, J. G. 1999. Oil in Nigeria: Conflict and litigation between oil companies and village communities. Münster: Lit Verlag.
  • [4] Aret, A. G. 2001. Marginal Field Developments. SPE Nigeria Council Sponsored Workshop NICON Hilton Hotel, Abuja, Nigeria, 16 March.
  • [5] Boyne, K., Horn, M., Bertrane, D., Fournie, F., Cooper, T., Quinn, P., Coudeville, F., Buchan, D., Allan, K. 2003. Otter- A Challenging Marginal oil Field Development. Paper SPE 83975 presented at offshore Europe 2003 held in Aberdeen, UK, 2-5, September 2003.
  • [6] Ayodele, O.R. and Frimpong, S. 2003. Economics of Nigerian Marginal Oil Fields. Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium held in Dallas, Texas, U.S.A., 5-8 April 2003.
  • [7] Kue, Y.N. and Orodu, O.D. 2006. Economic Analysis of Innovative Approaches to Marginal Field Development. Paper presented at the 30th Annual SPE international Technical Conference and Exhibition in Abuja,Nigeria, July31-August 2.
  • [8] Sumeet, G. and Tushar, G. 2012. Enhancing Marginal Field Development Economics: Leasing Operated Production Facilities Approach, Research Centre of social Sciences Journal of Global Economy, Vol. 8, pg 63-71.
  • [9] Adetoba, L. A. 2012. The Nigerian Marginal Field Initiative: Recent Developments. SPE 163040 paper presented at the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition held in Abuja, Nigeria, 6-8 August 2012.
  • [10] Choudhury, N.N. and Verma, S.K. 2016. Discovery of Development of Guda- A Case Study of a Marginal Field. Presented at the 12th Biennial International Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, India, 5-7 December.
  • [11] Oyakhire, B. and Omeke, J. 2017. Best Practice for Marginal Oil Field Development and Production Sustainability beyond First Oil Production. - Niger Delta Case. A paper presented at the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition held in Lagos, Nigeria, 31 July-2 August.
  • [12] Schuyler, J.R. 2001. Risk and decision analysis in projects. 2nd ed. Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute.
  • [13] Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M.K.S., and Buhl, S.L. 2005. How inaccurate are demand forecasts in public works projects? Journal of the American Planning Association, 78(2), pp.131-146.
  • [14] Alaneme, C.E. and Igboanugo, A.C. 2012. Application of Decision Theory in Assessing Marginal Oilfield Risks: Niger Delta Hub Example. Journal of Emerging Trends in Engineering and Applied Sciences, 3(4): 594-600.
  • [15] Graham, G.M. and Collins, I.R. 2004. Assessing Scale Risks and Uncertainties for Subsea Marginal Field Developments. A paper presented at the 6th international Symposium on Oilfield Scale held in Aberdeen, UK, 26-27 May.
  • [16] Ward, S.C. and Chapman, C.B. 1991. Extending the use of risk analysis in project management. International Journal of Project Management, 9(2), pp. 117-123.
  • [17] Harbaugh, J., Davis, J., and Wendebourg, J. 1996. Computing risk for oil prospects: Principles and programs. Elsevier Science, 13(7), pp.852.
  • [18] McCray, G.E., Purvis, R.L., and McCray, C.G. 2002. Project Management under Uncertainties: The Impact of Heuristics and Biases. Project Management Journal, 33(1), pp.49-57.
  • [19] Inyang, E. and Oyinlola, S. 2006. Security Matrix in the Niger Delta Operations. Paper presented at the SPE international Conference on Health, Safety, and Environment in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production held in Abu Dhabi, U.A.E, 2-4 April 2006.
  • [20] Rose, P. 2012. Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures. AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, No. 12. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa USA.
  • [21] Andersen, S. and Mostue, B.A. 2011. Risk analysis and risk management approaches applied to the petroleum industry and their applicability to IO concepts. Safety Science.50 (10), pp. 2010-2019.
  • [22] Kaiser, M. 2010. Marginal production in the gulf of Mexico – I. Historical statistics & model framework. Applied Energy, 87(8), 2535-2550.
  • [23] Offia, U. 2011. Development and management of marginal oil field in the Niger delta basin: Opportunities and challenges. Petroleum Technology Development Journal: An International Journal, 1(1), 1-10.
  • [24] Devold, H. 2013. Oil and Gas Production Handbook: An Introduction to Oil and Gas Production, Transport, Refining and Petrochemical Industry. Oslo, Norway: ABB Oil and Gas Edition.
  • [25] Akinwale, Y.O. and Akinbami, J.K. 2016. Economic Evaluation of Nigerian Marginal Oil and Gas Field using Financial Simulation Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3), 563-574.
  • [26] Ayodele, O.R. and Frimpong, S. 2003. Economics of Nigerian Marginal Oil Fields. Paper presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium held in Dallas, Texas, U.S.A., 5-8 April 2003.
  • [27] Iledare, O. 2004. Analyzing the Impact of Petroleum Fiscal Arrangements and Contract Terms on Petroleum E&P Economics and Host Government Take. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 88969: Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition on Petroleum, 2-4 August, Abuja, Nigeria.
  • [28] Adenikinju, A. and Oderinde, L. 2009, Economics of Offshore Oil Investment Projects and Production Sharing Contracts: A Meta Modeling Analysis. Nigeria: University of Ibadan. Available from: http://www.africametrics.org/documents/conference09/papers/ Adenikinju_Oderinde.pdf. [Last accessed on 2015 May 02].
  • [29] Adamu, M., Ajienka, J., Ikiensikimama, S. 2013. Economic analysis on the development of Nigerian offshore marginal fields using probabilistic approach. Advances in Petroleum Exploration and Development, 6(1), 11-21.
  • [30] Akinwale, Y.O. and Akinbami, J.K. 2016. Economic Evaluation of Nigerian Marginal Oil and Gas Field using Financial Simulation Analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3), 563-574.
  • [31] Eze, C. L., Godwin, A. C., Dominic, E. U. 2017. Overview On The Emergence Of Marginal Oil Fields In Nigeria And Their Contribution To The Country's Oil Production. Nigerian Journal Of Oil And Gas Technology - Vol 2 No. 1. Pp. 229-236.
  • [32] Atsegbua, L. 2005. Issues in the Development of Marginal Oilfields in Nigeria, Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, 23:3, 323-336, DOI: 10.1080/02646811.2005.11433408.
  • [33] Humphrey, O., and Dosunmu, A. 2017. The Critical Success Factors for Marginal Oil Field Development in Nigeria. Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 2017, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1-10.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Industrial Engineering
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ayodeji OMOTEHİNSE> (Primary Author)
University of Benin
0000-0002-5036-0800
Nigeria

Publication Date March 31, 2021
Submission Date July 2, 2020
Acceptance Date February 9, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021, Volume 8, Issue 1

Cite

Bibtex @research article { ijeat762290, journal = {International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies}, eissn = {2548-060X}, address = {editor.ijeat@gmail.com}, publisher = {İlker ÖRS}, year = {2021}, volume = {8}, number = {1}, pages = {1 - 5}, doi = {10.31593/ijeat.762290}, title = {Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria}, key = {cite}, author = {Omotehinse, Ayodeji} }
APA Omotehinse, A. (2021). Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria . International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies , 8 (1) , 1-5 . DOI: 10.31593/ijeat.762290
MLA Omotehinse, A. "Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria" . International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 8 (2021 ): 1-5 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijeat/issue/60964/762290>
Chicago Omotehinse, A. "Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria". International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 8 (2021 ): 1-5
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria AU - AyodejiOmotehinse Y1 - 2021 PY - 2021 N1 - doi: 10.31593/ijeat.762290 DO - 10.31593/ijeat.762290 T2 - International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 1 EP - 5 VL - 8 IS - 1 SN - -2548-060X M3 - doi: 10.31593/ijeat.762290 UR - https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.762290 Y2 - 2021 ER -
EndNote %0 International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria %A Ayodeji Omotehinse %T Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria %D 2021 %J International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies %P -2548-060X %V 8 %N 1 %R doi: 10.31593/ijeat.762290 %U 10.31593/ijeat.762290
ISNAD Omotehinse, Ayodeji . "Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria". International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 8 / 1 (March 2021): 1-5 . https://doi.org/10.31593/ijeat.762290
AMA Omotehinse A. Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria. IJEAT. 2021; 8(1): 1-5.
Vancouver Omotehinse A. Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies. 2021; 8(1): 1-5.
IEEE A. Omotehinse , "Application of auto-regressive time series model to marginal oil field production in Nigeria", International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 1-5, Mar. 2021, doi:10.31593/ijeat.762290