Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply

Volume: 2 Number: 1 March 1, 2012
  • Hamidreza Mostafaei
  • Leila Sakhabakhsh
EN

Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply

Abstract

In this paper the specification of long memory has been studied using monthly data in total oil supply in Iran from 1994 to 2009. Because monthly oil supply series in Iran are showing non-stationary and periodic behavior we fit the data with SARIMA and SARFIMA models, and estimate the parameters using conditional sum of squares method. The results indicate the best model is SARFIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, -0.199, 0)12 which is used to predict the quantity of oil supply in Iran till the end of 2020. Therefore SARFIMA model can be used as the best model for predicting the amount of oil supply in the future.

Keywords

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

-

Journal Section

-

Authors

Hamidreza Mostafaei This is me

Leila Sakhabakhsh This is me

Publication Date

March 1, 2012

Submission Date

March 1, 2012

Acceptance Date

-

Published in Issue

Year 2012 Volume: 2 Number: 1

APA
Mostafaei, H., & Sakhabakhsh, L. (2012). Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2(1), 41-49. https://izlik.org/JA86ZE59CB
AMA
1.Mostafaei H, Sakhabakhsh L. Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. IJEEP. 2012;2(1):41-49. https://izlik.org/JA86ZE59CB
Chicago
Mostafaei, Hamidreza, and Leila Sakhabakhsh. 2012. “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2 (1): 41-49. https://izlik.org/JA86ZE59CB.
EndNote
Mostafaei H, Sakhabakhsh L (March 1, 2012) Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2 1 41–49.
IEEE
[1]H. Mostafaei and L. Sakhabakhsh, “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”, IJEEP, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 41–49, Mar. 2012, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA86ZE59CB
ISNAD
Mostafaei, Hamidreza - Sakhabakhsh, Leila. “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 2/1 (March 1, 2012): 41-49. https://izlik.org/JA86ZE59CB.
JAMA
1.Mostafaei H, Sakhabakhsh L. Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. IJEEP. 2012;2:41–49.
MLA
Mostafaei, Hamidreza, and Leila Sakhabakhsh. “Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 2, no. 1, Mar. 2012, pp. 41-49, https://izlik.org/JA86ZE59CB.
Vancouver
1.Hamidreza Mostafaei, Leila Sakhabakhsh. Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran’s Oil Supply. IJEEP [Internet]. 2012 Mar. 1;2(1):41-9. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA86ZE59CB