Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy

Volume: 5 Number: 3 September 1, 2015
  • Thomas M. Fullerton
  • George Novela
  • David Torres
  • Adam G. Walke
EN

Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy

Abstract

El Paso Electric Company (EPEC) is the sole commercial electricity provider for two metropolitan economies in the southwestern desert region of the United States: El Paso, Texas and Las Cruces, New Mexico. A publicly traded corporation, EPEC employs a structural econometric system of equations model to forecast energy sales for various customer classes. Although the modeling system has provided reliable inputs to annual corporate planning efforts at EPEC, its historical track record has not previously been formally assessed for forecast accuracy. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are used to evaluate the EPEC model’s forecasting performance. Results indicate that accurate prediction of electricity usage in this service area is an elusive target. Those results are similar to what has been documented for other regional economic variables.

Keywords

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

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Journal Section

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Authors

Thomas M. Fullerton This is me

George Novela This is me

David Torres This is me

Adam G. Walke This is me

Publication Date

September 1, 2015

Submission Date

September 1, 2015

Acceptance Date

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Published in Issue

Year 2015 Volume: 5 Number: 3

APA
Fullerton, T. M., Novela, G., Torres, D., & Walke, A. G. (2015). Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(3), 738-745. https://izlik.org/JA74EE52ZS
AMA
1.Fullerton TM, Novela G, Torres D, Walke AG. Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy. IJEEP. 2015;5(3):738-745. https://izlik.org/JA74EE52ZS
Chicago
Fullerton, Thomas M., George Novela, David Torres, and Adam G. Walke. 2015. “Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 5 (3): 738-45. https://izlik.org/JA74EE52ZS.
EndNote
Fullerton TM, Novela G, Torres D, Walke AG (September 1, 2015) Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 5 3 738–745.
IEEE
[1]T. M. Fullerton, G. Novela, D. Torres, and A. G. Walke, “Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy”, IJEEP, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 738–745, Sept. 2015, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA74EE52ZS
ISNAD
Fullerton, Thomas M. - Novela, George - Torres, David - Walke, Adam G. “Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 5/3 (September 1, 2015): 738-745. https://izlik.org/JA74EE52ZS.
JAMA
1.Fullerton TM, Novela G, Torres D, Walke AG. Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy. IJEEP. 2015;5:738–745.
MLA
Fullerton, Thomas M., et al. “Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 5, no. 3, Sept. 2015, pp. 738-45, https://izlik.org/JA74EE52ZS.
Vancouver
1.Thomas M. Fullerton, George Novela, David Torres, Adam G. Walke. Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy. IJEEP [Internet]. 2015 Sep. 1;5(3):738-45. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA74EE52ZS