Prediction of CO2 Emissions in Iran using Grey and ARIMA Models

Year 2013, Volume: 3 Issue: 3, 229 - 237, 01.09.2013

Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour Mohammad Ali Falahi Morteza Bastam

Abstract

The examination of economic aspects of gas emissions and its consequences is very important, especially in terms of its volume at the current increasing trend. Therefore, the prediction of air pollution emissions of carbon dioxide can give the correct direction to policies adopted. Hence, studying and forecasting of gas emissions is necessary. The purpose of this paper is the prediction of CO2 emissions based on Grey System and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and comparison of these two methods by RMSE, MAE and MAPE metrics. The results show the more accuracy of Grey system forecasting rather than other methods of prediction. Also, based on the estimated results, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions will reach up to 925.68 million tons in 2020 which shows an increase of 66 percent growth compared to 2010 which is highly significant.

Keywords

Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Forecasting, Grey system, Iran