Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

Gholam Hossein Hasantash; Hamidreza Mostafaei; Shaghayegh Kordnoori

EN

Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

Abstract

Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

Keywords

Grey theory, Grey Markov model, EIA, Oil

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

-

Journal Section

-

Authors

Gholam Hossein Hasantash This is me

Hamidreza Mostafaei This is me

Shaghayegh Kordnoori This is me

Publication Date

September 1, 2012

Submission Date

September 1, 2012

Acceptance Date

-

Published in Issue

Year 2012 Volume: 2 Number: 3

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Hasantash, G. H., Mostafaei, H., & Kordnoori, S. (2012). Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(3), 312-319. https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW

AMA

1.Hasantash GH, Mostafaei H, Kordnoori S. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. IJEFI. 2012;2(3):312-319. https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW

Chicago

Hasantash, Gholam Hossein, Hamidreza Mostafaei, and Shaghayegh Kordnoori. 2012. “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2 (3): 312-19. https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW.

EndNote

Hasantash GH, Mostafaei H, Kordnoori S (September 1, 2012) Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2 3 312–319.

IEEE

[1]G. H. Hasantash, H. Mostafaei, and S. Kordnoori, “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”, IJEFI, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 312–319, Sept. 2012, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW

ISNAD

Hasantash, Gholam Hossein - Mostafaei, Hamidreza - Kordnoori, Shaghayegh. “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2/3 (September 1, 2012): 312-319. https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW.

JAMA

1.Hasantash GH, Mostafaei H, Kordnoori S. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. IJEFI. 2012;2:312–319.

MLA

Hasantash, Gholam Hossein, et al. “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 2, no. 3, Sept. 2012, pp. 312-9, https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW.

Vancouver

1.Gholam Hossein Hasantash, Hamidreza Mostafaei, Shaghayegh Kordnoori. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. IJEFI [Internet]. 2012 Sep. 1;2(3):312-9. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA93RD84XW