Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

Gholam Hossein Hasantash; Hamidreza Mostafaei; Shaghayegh Kordnoori

Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

Year 2012, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 312 - 319, 01.09.2012

Gholam Hossein Hasantash Hamidreza Mostafaei Shaghayegh Kordnoori

Abstract

Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.

Keywords

Grey theory, Grey Markov model, EIA, Oil

Year 2012, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 312 - 319, 01.09.2012

Gholam Hossein Hasantash Hamidreza Mostafaei Shaghayegh Kordnoori

Abstract

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Details

Other ID	JA63KP85SK
Journal Section	Research Article
Authors	Gholam Hossein Hasantash This is me Hamidreza Mostafaei This is me Shaghayegh Kordnoori This is me
Publication Date	September 1, 2012
Published in Issue	Year 2012 Volume: 2 Issue: 3

Cite

APA	Hasantash, G. H., Mostafaei, H., & Kordnoori, S. (2012). Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(3), 312-319.
AMA	Hasantash GH, Mostafaei H, Kordnoori S. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. IJEFI. September 2012;2(3):312-319.
Chicago	Hasantash, Gholam Hossein, Hamidreza Mostafaei, and Shaghayegh Kordnoori. “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2, no. 3 (September 2012): 312-19.
EndNote	Hasantash GH, Mostafaei H, Kordnoori S (September 1, 2012) Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2 3 312–319.
IEEE	G. H. Hasantash, H. Mostafaei, and S. Kordnoori, “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”, IJEFI, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 312–319, 2012.
ISNAD	Hasantash, Gholam Hossein et al. “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 2/3 (September 2012), 312-319.
JAMA	Hasantash GH, Mostafaei H, Kordnoori S. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. IJEFI. 2012;2:312–319.
MLA	Hasantash, Gholam Hossein et al. “Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 2, no. 3, 2012, pp. 312-9.
Vancouver	Hasantash GH, Mostafaei H, Kordnoori S. Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model. IJEFI. 2012;2(3):312-9.