DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN BRICS COUNTRIES

Abstract

This paper investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and factors affecting production in the Emerging Market Economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS. A currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate), however, has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production.

Keywords

• Dynamics of Industrial Production, BRICS countries, P-ARDL

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