THE EFFECT OF THE GLOBAL FOOD AND ECONOMIC CRISES ON POVERTY IN EGYPT

Abstract

Over the last Three years, the Egyptian economy has been exposed to two world crises: the first was the world food crisis that started in the second half of 2007, and the second was the world economic crisis, whose consequences began to manifest themselves globally in September 2008. This study aims to determine the quantitative impact of the world economic crisis – and before it, the world food crisis – on poverty rates in Egypt, whether at the national level or on the level of the urban and rural sectors, in light of various economic crisis scenarios. And the effect of the revolution, January 25, 2011on economic policies to reduce poverty in Egypt. The research methodology adopted relies on the application of simulation tools for social indicators and poverty known as SimSIP to reveal the effect of external shocks – the food crisis followed by the economic crisis – on economic growth and inequality in income distribution, and hence, on poverty rates – while making use of the analysis of specific scenarios related to world prices and their impacts on local prices and incomes. In applying the model, 2005 CAPMAS data on Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey (HIECS) , grouped by income categories, are used.

Keywords

• Global food crisis1-Economic crisis2- Poverty3-Egypt4

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