EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH INTO IMPORT PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM CENTRAL ASIA

Abstract

This paper estimates the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices for Central Asia countries over period 1995q11-2012q11 years. The additional study was done for Kazakhstan to determine the impact of money regulating policy into short-run and long-run ERPT. The study of ERPT was done by employing cointegration analysis across five central Asia countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The paper analyzes three opportunities of the transmission of the export cost into ERPT using production price indices (PPI) of three major trading partners of Central Asia countries: PPI of Russia, PPI of Turkey and PPI of China. In case with PPI of Russia the results showed, that ERPT is extended beyond of 1 for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Incomplete ERPT is indicated for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and zero ERPT is indicated for Uzbekistan. In case with PPI of Turkey, the elasticities of extent ERPT into import prices are more higher then in case with PPI of Russia, and elasticities for all Central Asia countries are negative and significant. In case with PPI of China, incomplete ERPT is indicated for all Central Asia countries, except the Kyrgyzstan, which has extended ERPT. In all cases this study showed the significance of ERPT, except only two cases for Kazakhstan and Tajikistan with PPI of China. Also interesting, those elasticities of ERPT with PPI of China are lower comparing with other cases. In the special study of money regulation policy only for Kazakhstan the short-run and long-run elasticities of ERPT are incomplete with PPI of Russia and PPI of Turkey, and they are extended with PPI of China.

Keywords

• Exchange Rate Pass Trough, import prices, inflation