THE EFFECT OF THE GLOBAL FOOD AND ECONOMIC CRISES ON POVERTY IN EGYPT

Year 2012, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 103 - 115, 01.12.2012

Hanady Mostafa Abd El-radi Gamal Mohamed Siam

Abstract

Over the last Three years, the Egyptian economy has been exposed to two world
crises: the first was the world food crisis that started in the second half of 2007,
and the second was the world economic crisis, whose consequences began to
manifest themselves globally in September 2008. This study aims to determine
the quantitative impact of the world economic crisis – and before it, the world
food crisis – on poverty rates in Egypt, whether at the national level or on the
level of the urban and rural sectors, in light of various economic crisis scenarios.
And the effect of the revolution, January 25, 2011on economic policies to reduce
poverty in Egypt. The research methodology adopted relies on the application of
simulation tools for social indicators and poverty known as SimSIP to reveal the
effect of external shocks – the food crisis followed by the economic crisis – on
economic growth and inequality in income distribution, and hence, on poverty
rates – while making use of the analysis of specific scenarios related to world
prices and their impacts on local prices and incomes. In applying the model, 2005
CAPMAS data on Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey
(HIECS) , grouped by income categories, are used.

Keywords

Global food crisis1-Economic crisis2- Poverty3-Egypt4

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