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INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY

Year 2010, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 131 - 137, 01.06.2010

Abstract

Even though consumer confidence/sentiment indices are measured in many developed and developing countries, the vast literature on consumer confidence focus on the behavior of the indices for developed economies in order to show whether these indices have some predictive power in terms of estimating the future path of consumption, hence final domestic demand. When comparing the economic environment of both developed and developing countries, the differences in expectation formation of consumers in developed and developing countries are remarkable due to the high sensitivity of consumers in developing countries to the level of income. In this context, this paper analyzes the effects of the expectation and tendency components of consumer sentiment on real final domestic demand for the Turkish case using some econometric techniques. Employing consumer confidence measures of CNBC-e and CBRT-TURKSTAT, this study also assesses the information content of these indices for the global crisis period

References

  • Acemoglu, Daron and Andrew Scott (1994), “Consumer confidence and rational expectations: Are agents’ beliefs consistent with the theory?” Economic Journal, Vol. 104, pp. 1–19.
  • Angevine, Gerald (1974), “Forecasting consumption with a Canadian consumer sentiment measure”, The Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 273-289.
  • Carroll, Christopher, Jeffrey Fuhrer and David Wilcox (1994), “Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?”, American Economic Review, Vol. 84, pp.1397–1408.
  • Croushore, Dean (2005), “Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 16, pp. 435–450.
  • Dickey, David and Wayne Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time
  • Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 427-31. Easaw, Joshey and Saeed Heravi (2004), “Evaluating consumer sentiment as predictors of UK household consumption behaviour: Are they accurate and useful?”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, pp. 671–681.
  • Fan, Simon and Phoebe Wong (1998), “Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?:
  • The Hong Kong case”, Economics Letters, Vol. 58, pp. 77–84. Fuhrer, Jeffrey (1993), “What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?”,
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Review, Jan/Feb, pp. 32-44. Garner, Alan (1991), “Forecasting consumer spending: Should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Vol. 76, pp. 57–71.
  • Howrey, Philip (2001), “The predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment”, Brookings
  • Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 175–213. Huth, William, David Eppright and Paul Taube (1994), “The indexes of consumer sentiment and confidence: Leading or misleading guides to future buyer behavior”, Journal of Business Research, Vol. 29, pp.199-206.
  • Johansen, Soren (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic
  • Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 231-54. Johansen, Soren and Katarina Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on
  • Cointegration-with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, pp. 169-210. Katona, George (1960), The Powerful Consumer, New York: McGraw-Hill.
  • Kwiatkowski, Denis, Peter Phillips, Peter Schmidt and Yongcheol Shin (1992), “Testing the Null
  • Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54, pp. 159-78. Ludvigson, Sydney (2004), “Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending”, The Journal of
  • Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 29-50. Mueller, Eva (1963), “Ten years of consumer attitude surveys: Their forecasting record”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 58, pp. 899–917.
  • Parigi, Giuseppe and Giuseppe Schlitzer (1997), “Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13, pp. 197–209.
  • Pickering, J. F., J. A. Harrison, C.D. Cohen, (1973), “Identification and Measurement of
  • Consumer Confidence: Methodology and Some Preliminary Results”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society” Series A (General), Vol. 136, No. 1, pp. 43-63
  • Pickering, J. F. and B. C. Isherwood (1975), “Determinants of Expenditure on Consumer
  • Durables”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General), Vol. 138, No. 4, pp.504- Roos, Michael (2008), “Willingness to consume and ability to consume”, Journal of Economic
  • Behavior & Organization, Vol. 66, pp. 387–402. Souleles, Nicholas (2004), “Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption:
  • Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 39-72. Vuchelen, Jef (2004), “Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 25, pp. 493–506.
Year 2010, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 131 - 137, 01.06.2010

Abstract

References

  • Acemoglu, Daron and Andrew Scott (1994), “Consumer confidence and rational expectations: Are agents’ beliefs consistent with the theory?” Economic Journal, Vol. 104, pp. 1–19.
  • Angevine, Gerald (1974), “Forecasting consumption with a Canadian consumer sentiment measure”, The Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 273-289.
  • Carroll, Christopher, Jeffrey Fuhrer and David Wilcox (1994), “Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?”, American Economic Review, Vol. 84, pp.1397–1408.
  • Croushore, Dean (2005), “Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 16, pp. 435–450.
  • Dickey, David and Wayne Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time
  • Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 427-31. Easaw, Joshey and Saeed Heravi (2004), “Evaluating consumer sentiment as predictors of UK household consumption behaviour: Are they accurate and useful?”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, pp. 671–681.
  • Fan, Simon and Phoebe Wong (1998), “Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?:
  • The Hong Kong case”, Economics Letters, Vol. 58, pp. 77–84. Fuhrer, Jeffrey (1993), “What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?”,
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Review, Jan/Feb, pp. 32-44. Garner, Alan (1991), “Forecasting consumer spending: Should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Vol. 76, pp. 57–71.
  • Howrey, Philip (2001), “The predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment”, Brookings
  • Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 175–213. Huth, William, David Eppright and Paul Taube (1994), “The indexes of consumer sentiment and confidence: Leading or misleading guides to future buyer behavior”, Journal of Business Research, Vol. 29, pp.199-206.
  • Johansen, Soren (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic
  • Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 231-54. Johansen, Soren and Katarina Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on
  • Cointegration-with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, pp. 169-210. Katona, George (1960), The Powerful Consumer, New York: McGraw-Hill.
  • Kwiatkowski, Denis, Peter Phillips, Peter Schmidt and Yongcheol Shin (1992), “Testing the Null
  • Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54, pp. 159-78. Ludvigson, Sydney (2004), “Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending”, The Journal of
  • Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 29-50. Mueller, Eva (1963), “Ten years of consumer attitude surveys: Their forecasting record”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 58, pp. 899–917.
  • Parigi, Giuseppe and Giuseppe Schlitzer (1997), “Predicting consumption of Italian households by means of survey indicators”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13, pp. 197–209.
  • Pickering, J. F., J. A. Harrison, C.D. Cohen, (1973), “Identification and Measurement of
  • Consumer Confidence: Methodology and Some Preliminary Results”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society” Series A (General), Vol. 136, No. 1, pp. 43-63
  • Pickering, J. F. and B. C. Isherwood (1975), “Determinants of Expenditure on Consumer
  • Durables”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General), Vol. 138, No. 4, pp.504- Roos, Michael (2008), “Willingness to consume and ability to consume”, Journal of Economic
  • Behavior & Organization, Vol. 66, pp. 387–402. Souleles, Nicholas (2004), “Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption:
  • Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 39-72. Vuchelen, Jef (2004), “Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 25, pp. 493–506.
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA95PH38TA
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Seda Uzun This is me

Pinar Denız This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2010
Published in Issue Year 2010 Volume: 2 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Uzun, S., & Denız, P. (2010). INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 2(1), 131-137.
AMA Uzun S, Denız P. INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY. IJEFS. June 2010;2(1):131-137.
Chicago Uzun, Seda, and Pinar Denız. “INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2, no. 1 (June 2010): 131-37.
EndNote Uzun S, Denız P (June 1, 2010) INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2 1 131–137.
IEEE S. Uzun and P. Denız, “INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY”, IJEFS, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 131–137, 2010.
ISNAD Uzun, Seda - Denız, Pinar. “INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2/1 (June 2010), 131-137.
JAMA Uzun S, Denız P. INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY. IJEFS. 2010;2:131–137.
MLA Uzun, Seda and Pinar Denız. “INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, vol. 2, no. 1, 2010, pp. 131-7.
Vancouver Uzun S, Denız P. INFORMATION CONTENT OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN TURKEY. IJEFS. 2010;2(1):131-7.