Heatwave Characteristics in Agricultural and Forest Lands across Türkiye: Historical and Future Insights from CMIP6 Simulations

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 4, 440 - 451, 12.01.2026

Serhan Yeşilköy

https://doi.org/10.26650/ijegeo.1701973

https://izlik.org/JA87AY69YD

Abstract

Heatwaves pose significant threats to diverse sectors, including agriculture and forestry. Prolonged periods of exceptionally high air temperatures characterize this extreme weather event, which has inflicted substantial economic damage on millions. This study revealed the projected heatwave changes in frequency and duration over agricultural and forest areas in Türkiye based on the ensemble mean of 23 general circulation models through the two latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) socioeconomic scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Agricultural and forest lands are projected to experience dramatic increases in summer heatwave events and prolonged duration throughout two long-term periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) during the 21 st century, particularly between 36°N and 38°N latitudes. Trend analysis using the triple-innovative trend analysis (T-ITA) method confirms unstable positive trends in historical heatwave metrics over these ecosystems, transitioning to stable positive trends in future projections. Monthly heatwave occurrences and duration in agricultural areas are projected to increase by 7.2 events and 8.9 days per year under SSP3-7.0 and by 8.8 events and 11.4 days per year under SSP5-8.5, respectively. In forests, the projected increases are 6.7 events per year and 8.2 days per year (SSP3-7.0), and 8.2 events per year and 10.5 days per year (SSP5-8.5). The findings emphasize the elevated risk of extreme heat events for Türkiye’s critical ecosystems, highlighting the urgent requirement for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

Keywords

Extreme Events , Heat Stress , Climate Risk , Vulnerability , CMIP6

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