On Some Climatic Scenarios For Turkey From The Perspective of Changes in the Annual Mean Temperatures via Aggregation by Steady-State Distribution

Abstract

In this study, it is tried to give a system of Markov chains approach to the trend of annual mean temperatures in Turkey. For this reason, a data of annual mean temperatures between the years 1965 - 2012 of 58 meteorological stations of Turkey are used. Each scenario is given as a solution to a quadratic programming problem for which is spanned by the transition matrices of twelve groups. The steady-state distribution method given here facilitates the multiple station Markov chain applications. In the meantime, the linear regression approaches in which the averages of station groups are considered as independent variables are as well introduced. It is also given comments on some scenarios while an extreme scenario as a solution to a few problems is pointed out to which is feared in respect of climatic change. 

Keywords

• Annual mean temperatures,climatic change,Markov chain,Aggregation by steady-state distribution,Linear regression

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